Indus Waters Treaty: A year on, India’s case for freezing it and what it plans next
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), 1960 has completed roughly a year in "abeyance," a status that began on April 23, 2025, in the aftermath of a terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir.
The declared position is that the treaty will remain suspended until Pakistan "credibly and irrevocably" ends support for cross-border terrorism, since a treaty premised on good faith cannot bind one party to full compliance while the other sponsors violence against it.
A three-tier (short-term, mid-term, long-term) strategy has been outlined to maximise domestic utilisation of Indus system waters, including irrigation and storage works on the western rivers.
In May 2026, the Hague-based Court of Arbitration issued a further award on permissible water storage at Indian hydroelectric projects on the western rivers; this award was rejected as null and void, on the ground that the tribunal itself is illegally constituted and that the treaty remains in abeyance.
No follow-up bilateral engagement to resume the treaty has occurred; the abeyance continues to be treated as one of several instruments of post-Pahalgam response.
The Indus Waters Treaty, 1960
The IWT was signed on 19 September 1960 between India and Pakistan, brokered and guaranteed (in part) by the World Bank, to apportion the six rivers of the Indus basin. It is often cited as one of the few water-sharing treaties to survive multiple wars between its signatories, making the 2025 "abeyance" a significant departure from precedent.
Key Details
- The Eastern Rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — are allocated for India's unrestricted use.
- The Western Rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — are allocated primarily to Pakistan, though India retains limited rights for irrigation, non-consumptive use, and run-of-the-river hydropower generation.
- The treaty has no exit clause; it can only be modified or terminated by a mutually ratified new treaty, which is why India's move is termed "abeyance" rather than formal withdrawal or abrogation.
- The World Bank's role is limited to appointing a Neutral Expert or constituting a Court of Arbitration when a dispute is referred to it — it is not an adjudicator itself.
The one-year mark tests whether students know that the treaty's western-river allocation to Pakistan is precisely what India's diversion, storage, and desilting plans are now targeting.
Dispute Resolution Mechanism (Permanent Indus Commission, Neutral Expert, Court of Arbitration)
The treaty created a three-tier dispute settlement structure administered through Permanent Indus Commission dialogue, escalating to third-party mechanisms depending on the nature of disagreement.
Key Details
- "Questions" (routine implementation issues) are handled by the Permanent Indus Commission, which has one Commissioner from each country and is required to meet at least once a year.
- "Differences" (technical disagreements, e.g., over a hydropower project's design) are referred to a Neutral Expert appointed by the World Bank.
- "Disputes" (broader legal/jurisdictional questions) go to an ad hoc Court of Arbitration.
- Pakistan has sought parallel Neutral Expert and Court of Arbitration proceedings on the same set of disputes (concerning the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects); India contests the Court of Arbitration's legitimacy and boycotts its proceedings.
The Hague tribunal's 2026 award — rejected outright — illustrates the practical consequence of India's abeyance stance: continued non-recognition of Court of Arbitration jurisdiction while formal treaty machinery stays frozen.
Indus River System Geography
The Indus basin is a transboundary river system originating in the Tibetan Plateau and draining through India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and China, making its water-sharing arrangements strategically significant beyond bilateral India-Pakistan relations.
Key Details
- The Indus originates near Lake Mansarovar in Tibet, flows through Ladakh, and enters Pakistan before emptying into the Arabian Sea near Karachi.
- Key tributaries covered under the treaty: Jhelum and Chenab (western rivers, via Jammu and Kashmir); Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej (eastern rivers, via Punjab).
- Pakistan is estimated to depend on the Indus system for roughly 80% of its irrigated agriculture, which is the primary reason abeyance is viewed by India as significant leverage.
Understanding the river geography clarifies why India's "short/mid/long-term" plans center on canal capacity, desilting, and storage on the western rivers — the water India can legally use but has historically under-utilised.
- Treaty signed: 19 September 1960; brokered by the World Bank.
- Abeyance declared: 23 April 2025, one day after the Pahalgam terror attack.
- Rivers allocated to India: Ravi, Beas, Sutlej (Eastern); to Pakistan: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab (Western), with limited Indian rights.
- Hague Court of Arbitration further award on hydro-project water storage: May 2026, rejected by India as null and void.
- Pakistan's estimated dependence on the Indus system for irrigated agriculture: around 80%.