Iran army says war to ‘expand further’ if U.S. attacks restart
Iran's military stated that renewed US airstrikes could cause the ongoing conflict to expand geographically further than its current scope.
The statement came as airstrikes between the United States/Israel and Iran remained paused following nearly two weeks of intensified bombing, with Oman-mediated talks continuing on the safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's military noted that hostilities have already widened to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the mouth of the Red Sea, referencing a separate military escalation involving Yemen's Houthi movement and Saudi Arabia.
A US naval blockade of Iran, in place since mid-April 2026, continues even during the pause in air operations.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait — A Second Global Chokepoint Under Strain
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea, making it (along with the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal) one of the handful of maritime chokepoints through which a large share of global energy and container trade must pass. Its narrowing during the ongoing regional conflict, on top of the Hormuz blockade, doubles the number of pressure points on global shipping simultaneously.
Key Details
- Narrowest point lies between Yemen (Ras Menheli) and Djibouti (Ras Siyyan), roughly 20 nautical miles (about 32 km) wide, split by Perim (Mayun) Island into a wider western channel and a narrower eastern channel used for shipping.
- Connects the Red Sea/Suez Canal route to the Indian Ocean, making it critical for Europe-Asia trade and for Gulf oil exports that do not use the Strait of Hormuz.
- Estimated 2.5-3.5 million barrels per day of Saudi crude exports move through this strait via the Yanbu terminal, distinct from Hormuz-routed volumes.
The reported spread of the conflict to Bab el-Mandeb — on top of the pre-existing Hormuz blockade — is precisely the "geographic expansion" Iran's military spokesperson warned could deepen if US strikes resume, since it would place two of the world's most critical chokepoints under simultaneous strain.
NPT and IAEA Safeguards — The Nuclear Dimension Behind the Conflict
The current conflict traces back to concerns over Iran's nuclear programme and the collapse of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which had capped Iran's uranium enrichment and subjected its facilities to enhanced IAEA inspection under the Additional Protocol.
Key Details
- Iran signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968 and ratified it in 1970; its IAEA Safeguards Agreement entered into force in 1974.
- The JCPOA (July 2015, agreed with the P5+1 — US, UK, France, Russia, China, Germany) capped enrichment at 3.67% purity and limited Iran's enriched-uranium stockpile to 300 kg.
- The US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018; Iran progressively rolled back compliance and, in February 2021, ceased implementing the Additional Protocol that had allowed more intrusive IAEA inspections.
- As an NPT signatory, Iran remains bound by baseline NPT obligations even though JCPOA-specific restrictions have lapsed.
The strikes and counter-strikes referenced in this report originate from disputes over verifying Iran's nuclear activities after the JCPOA's collapse — the underlying non-proliferation dispute is why the conflict began and why it risks further escalation.
India's Chabahar Port Stake in a Widening Conflict
India's investment in Iran's Chabahar Port — developed as an alternative trade and connectivity route to Afghanistan and Central Asia that bypasses Pakistan — sits directly in the theatre of the ongoing conflict and has separately been affected by US sanctions policy.
Key Details
- India has been involved in developing Chabahar's Shahid Beheshti Terminal since 2003, formalising a long-term operating agreement in 2024.
- A US sanctions waiver had allowed India to develop and operate the port since 2018; this waiver lapsed in April 2026, creating additional uncertainty independent of the conflict.
- Chabahar is central to the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which links India to Central Asia and Russia via Iran, bypassing Pakistan.
A wider war centred on Iran directly threatens the operational viability of Chabahar and the INSTC corridor, layering a connectivity/trade risk on top of India's existing energy and citizen-safety concerns in the region.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait narrowest width: approximately 20 nautical miles (about 32 km), between Yemen and Djibouti.
- Saudi crude exports via Bab el-Mandeb (Yanbu route): estimated 2.5-3.5 million barrels per day.
- Iran's NPT ratification: 1970; IAEA Safeguards Agreement in force since 1974.
- JCPOA agreed: July 2015; US withdrawal: 2018; Iran ceased Additional Protocol implementation: February 2021.
- US naval blockade of Iran: in effect since mid-April 2026, continuing despite the pause in airstrikes.
- US sanctions waiver for India's Chabahar Port operations (in place since 2018): lapsed April 2026.