Global Fossil CO2 Emissions Dip Slightly in 2026: Scientists Link It to the Iran War Oil Shock, Not Climate Action
The Global Carbon Project, an international team of more than 140 scientists, released its yearly estimate of world carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions at the COP31 climate talks in Antalya, Türkiye.
It found that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) fell by about 0.4% in 2026 compared with 2025. The world's total for 2026 was reported at about 42.2 billion tonnes of CO2, or roughly 1,335 tonnes every second.
Emissions from oil fell nearly 2% and from natural gas 0.3%, while coal rose 0.6%. The scientists say the fall comes mainly from the oil price shock after the war in Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, not from a lasting shift to clean energy.
This is only the third fall in global emissions in the 21st century. The other two were during the global recession of 2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Both times, emissions bounced back.
Overall CO2 emissions still rose about 1%, because emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation and human-caused peat fires) grew faster than fossil emissions fell.
China, the United States, Europe and Japan each showed about a 1% drop, while India's fossil CO2 emissions rose 4.4% in 2026.
Global Carbon Budget Report (Global Carbon Project)
The Global Carbon Budget is a yearly scientific report that tells the world how much carbon dioxide humans released in the past year, and where all that carbon went. It is prepared by the Global Carbon Project (GCP), an international network of scientists. You can think of it as the world's annual "account statement" for carbon: money in (our emissions) and where it was spent (into the air, the oceans and the land). It is released every year during the UN climate conference (COP), so negotiators have the latest numbers.
The 2026 finding that fossil emissions fell about 0.4%, while total emissions still rose about 1%, comes from this yearly report. Its method of splitting emissions by fuel (oil, gas, coal) is exactly how the scientists linked the dip to the oil shock rather than to climate action.
Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)
Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry, or LULUCF, is the part of climate accounting that covers how land releases or absorbs greenhouse gases. When forests grow, they pull CO2 out of the air and store carbon in wood and soil. When forests are cut, burned or drained, that stored carbon goes back into the air. LULUCF counts both these flows. It can be a source of emissions (when land loses carbon) or a sink (when land gains carbon).
The 2026 report found that total CO2 emissions still rose about 1%, even though fossil emissions dipped, because land-use change emissions from deforestation and peat fires increased. This shows that land is not only a sink; when forests and peatlands are lost, LULUCF becomes a growing source of emissions.
Carbon Budget: Historical Emissions and the Idea of Carbon Debt
A carbon budget is the total amount of CO2 that all humans together can still release if we want to keep global warming below a chosen limit, such as 1.5°C or 2°C. Warming depends on the total CO2 added over time, not on any one year. So a small one-year fall in emissions does not shrink the problem; it only slows how fast we use up what is left.
Even with the small dip in 2026, the world is still emitting enough each year to use up the remaining 1.5°C budget within a few years. This is why scientists call the dip "good news for the wrong reasons": it does not change the long-term direction.
Strait of Hormuz: Geography and Strategic Significance
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea passage between Iran to the north and Oman to the south. It connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and then to the Arabian Sea. It is the only sea exit for oil and gas from most Gulf countries, so it is the world's most important oil chokepoint.
The war in Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up oil prices and cutting oil use. Scientists say this is why oil emissions suddenly fell nearly 2% in 2026, which drove the small overall fall in fossil CO2.
- Fossil CO2 emissions in 2026: down about 0.4% from 2025 (Global Carbon Project, released at COP31, Antalya).
- 2026 emissions reported at about 42.2 billion tonnes of CO2, about 1,335 tonnes per second.
- By fuel in 2026: oil down nearly 2%, gas down 0.3%, coal up 0.6%.
- Total CO2 emissions including land-use change: up about 1% in 2026.
- India's fossil CO2 emissions in 2026: up 4.4%; China, US, Europe, Japan: down about 1% each.
- 21st-century falls in global emissions: 2009 (global recession), 2020 (COVID-19), 2026 (oil shock).
- Global Carbon Budget 2025: fossil CO2 38.1 billion tonnes; land-use change 4.1 billion tonnes; CO2 concentration 425.7 ppm; remaining 1.5°C budget about 170 billion tonnes.
- India's LULUCF net sink (2020, BUR-4): about 522 million tonnes CO2e.