US Says Renewed War With Iran Is Unlikely as the Strait of Hormuz Stays Partly Blocked
On 8 November 2026, the US President said that a return to war with Iran was "highly unlikely" as long as peace talks keep moving forward.
The US position is that any decision to resume strikes depends on whether Iran signs a strong agreement, including on its nuclear programme.
Iran's Foreign Minister said that travel by mediators (countries that carry messages between the two sides) has paused for a few days, after the US midterm elections produced a big change in the US Congress.
The US has argued that economic pressure, including very high inflation inside Iran, will push Iran towards a deal.
Iran continues to at least partly block ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This has cut oil supplies from the Gulf and pushed up fuel prices around the world.
Strait of Hormuz: Geography and Strategic Significance
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea passage between Iran in the north and Oman's Musandam peninsula in the south. It joins the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and then the Arabian Sea. It is the only sea exit for most of the oil and gas of the Gulf countries. That is why even a partial block here shakes oil prices across the world.
Iran is still partly blocking ships in the strait, which has cut Gulf oil supplies and raised fuel prices worldwide. Whether the strait fully reopens is one of the central issues in the US-Iran peace talks.
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA): The Iran Nuclear Deal
The JCPOA is the 2015 agreement in which Iran accepted strict limits on its nuclear programme in return for the lifting of sanctions (economic punishments). It was signed by Iran with the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) and the European Union. The aim was to stop Iran from quickly building a nuclear bomb. The deal later broke down, and the nuclear question is again at the centre of US-Iran talks.
The US says a return to war depends on Iran signing a "very strong agreement". With the JCPOA gone, any new deal would have to rebuild limits on Iran's nuclear programme from scratch.
India's Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR)
Strategic Petroleum Reserves are emergency stores of crude oil kept by the government for times when normal supply is cut off, for example by war or a blocked sea route. India stores this oil in large underground rock caverns near its coast. They are run by Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Limited (ISPRL), a special company under the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. Think of the SPR as a family keeping extra rice and dal at home in case the shops close.
A partly blocked Strait of Hormuz cuts the flow of Gulf oil that India depends on. The SPR is India's buffer against exactly this kind of supply shock, and the crisis strengthens the case for finishing Phase II.
- Date of the US statement: 8 November 2026
- Strait of Hormuz: about 21 nautical miles (about 39 km) wide at the narrowest point; links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman
- Oil through Hormuz in 2024: about 20 million barrels per day, about 20% of world oil consumption
- India's crude oil import dependence: 88.2% in 2024-25
- JCPOA: signed 14 July 2015, Vienna; UNSC Resolution 2231; US exit May 2018
- E3 triggered snapback on 28 August 2025; UN sanctions returned 27 September 2025
- India's SPR Phase I: 5.33 MMT at Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru and Padur; Phase II: 6.5 MMT at Chandikhol and Padur