Oil Prices Fall as New Strikes on Iran Look Unlikely: Brent, WTI and the Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices fell when markets opened on November 9, 2026, after the United States signalled that new attacks on Iran were "highly unlikely" while talks to end the conflict make progress.
Brent crude fell 84 cents (0.85%) to $97.48 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 32 cents (0.35%) to $90.51 a barrel.
In the previous week, Brent had already dropped 17%, its steepest weekly fall since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and the biggest ever in dollar terms, according to market data going back to 1988.
A JPMorgan report said the world is again heading for an oil glut (more supply than demand): a surplus of about 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million in October, as West Asian supply recovers and demand stays weak.
On November 8, Iraq reached an understanding with the United States to export its oil through the Strait of Hormuz using a shipping lane near Oman. Iraq says the war and export disruptions have cost it about $60 billion.
Ships were still reported attacked in or near the Strait, and Yemen's Houthi group claimed an attack on Saudi Aramco offices in Riyadh, with no reported casualties.
Global Crude Oil Benchmarks: Brent and WTI
A crude oil benchmark is a standard type of crude oil whose price is used as a reference for buying and selling other types of oil. There are hundreds of kinds of crude in the world, each a little different. Instead of setting a separate price for each one from scratch, traders take a well-known benchmark price and add or subtract a small amount. The two most important benchmarks are Brent, from the North Sea in Europe, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), from the United States. When the news says "oil is at $97", it usually means Brent.
The news reports oil prices using the two main benchmarks: Brent at $97.48 and WTI at $90.51. The gap between them reflects WTI's inland delivery point, and the sharp weekly fall shows how quickly a geopolitical risk premium can disappear from benchmark prices when the threat of war eases.
Strait of Hormuz: Geography and Strategic Significance
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea passage between Iran in the north and Oman in the south. It connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and then to the Arabian Sea. It is the only sea route out of the Persian Gulf, so oil and gas exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Iran must pass through it. That makes it the world's most important oil chokepoint.
The Iraq-US understanding to ship Iraqi oil along a lane near Oman, and the continuing reports of attacks on ships, show that the Strait of Hormuz is still the key factor in oil prices. Any sign of calmer traffic there pushes Brent and WTI down.
India's Energy Security and Import Dependence
Energy security means a country can always get the energy it needs, at a price it can afford. For India, the biggest risk is oil, because it imports most of what it uses. A war or a blocked sea route far away can raise petrol prices, push up inflation and widen the trade deficit at home.
Falling Brent prices and the reopening of export routes like Iraq's lane near Oman are good news for India's import bill and inflation. But the attacks on ships show that India's oil supply remains exposed to West Asian conflict.
- Brent: $97.48 a barrel (down 84 cents, 0.85%) on November 9, 2026
- WTI: $90.51 a barrel (down 32 cents, 0.35%)
- Brent fell 17% in the previous week: steepest weekly drop since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic; biggest in dollar terms in data going back to 1988
- JPMorgan estimate of global oil surplus: 1.1 million barrels per day (September 2026), 1.4 million (October 2026)
- Iraq-US understanding (November 8, 2026): Iraqi oil exports through Hormuz via a lane near Oman
- Iraq's estimated losses from the war and export disruption: about $60 billion
- Pre-war oil flow through Hormuz: about 20 million barrels per day (about one-fifth of world demand)