West Asia Conflict Exposes India's Energy Policy Gap: Need for Adverse Scenario Planning
India's Oil Secretary (Secretary, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas) highlighted that the West Asia conflict has underscored a fundamental lesson: energy policy frameworks must explicitly factor in adverse geopolitical scenarios, not just baseline projections
Almost 90% of India's LPG imports transit the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint whose disruption has exposed a structural vulnerability in India's energy supply chain
The Secretary's statement came in the context of active efforts to reroute supplies, ramp up domestic production, and build emergency procurement corridors
India's Energy Security Framework
India's energy security policy is built on four broad pillars articulated by the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas: availability (ensuring physical supply), accessibility (infrastructure reach), affordability (pricing), and acceptability (environmental sustainability). However, scenario-based resilience planning — building supply buffers against tail-risk events — has historically been underprioritised relative to cost optimisation.
The Oil Secretary's call to embed adverse scenarios into policy design is a direct acknowledgement that India's energy security architecture — built around peacetime cost optimisation — is inadequate when a single chokepoint is blocked. This has reignited debate about expanding the SPR, diversifying supply routes, and fast-tracking domestic production targets.
Strait of Hormuz: Strategic Geography
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, with a navigable channel of only about 3.2 km wide in each direction. It is the world's most critical oil chokepoint: approximately 21 million barrels of oil per day (roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption) passed through it daily before the current conflict-driven disruption.
India's 90% LPG import dependence on Hormuz transit means even a partial or temporary closure directly triggers domestic supply shortfalls. The policy lesson is about building structural redundancy — not just emergency response protocols.
Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR): India's Programme
India's SPR programme was established following a Cabinet Committee on Security decision in 2003. Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd (ISPRL), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Oil Industry Development Board (OIDB), manages the underground caverns.
The West Asia crisis has catalysed urgent review of SPR capacity expansion and accelerated Phase-2 development timelines, with the Oil Secretary directly linking policy inadequacy to the under-investment in strategic buffer stocks.
- 90% of India's LPG imports transit the Strait of Hormuz (Oil Secretary statement, April 2026)
- India imports approximately 60% of its total LPG consumption; the rest is met by domestic production
- India ranks 3rd globally in crude oil imports (after China and the US)
- India's SPR capacity: 5.33 MMT across three underground caverns — Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru, Padur
- The West Asia conflict (Feb 28, 2026 onwards) described as the largest disruption to world energy supply since the 1970s oil crisis
- India's domestic LPG production increased by approximately 10% following emergency directives after the Strait closure
- New supply corridors activated: US, Norway, Algeria, Australia, Canada — reducing Gulf dependency from ~99% to approximately 70% of LPG imports