India Should Protect Own Interests: Not Just Balance — in West Asia Conflict: C Raja Mohan
Foreign policy analyst C Raja Mohan argued that India's goal in the West Asia conflict should not be to maintain a "balanced position" for its own sake — India must prioritise its own strategic and economic interests.
He highlighted the stark demographic asymmetry: approximately 10 million Indians reside in Arab Gulf states (GCC countries), while only around 10,000 Indians live in Iran — a 1,000:1 ratio that should fundamentally shape India's diplomatic calculus.
Mohan invoked the concept of "enlightened national interest" — a foreign policy doctrine that advocates clear-eyed prioritisation of measurable national gains over abstract neutrality or ideological positioning.
India's Gulf interests extend well beyond oil: Indian workers in the Gulf remit approximately $51 billion annually (roughly 38% of India's total remittance inflows of ~$135 billion in FY2025), and nearly 10 million Indian citizens depend on Gulf employment.
The West Asia conflict — specifically the risk of oil supply disruption, remittance interruption, and evacuation scenarios — makes a passive "balanced" posture increasingly costly for India.
Mohan argued India should align more visibly with Gulf Arab states (which share the anti-Iran security concern) without being dragged into the military conflict itself.
India's Foreign Policy Doctrine: Strategic Autonomy vs. Enlightened National Interest
India's post-independence foreign policy was founded on the principles of Non-Alignment (formally institutionalised through the Non-Aligned Movement founded in 1961 with India, Yugoslavia, Egypt, Ghana, and Indonesia as founding members). After the Cold War, India moved toward what scholars call "strategic autonomy" — the ability to make independent decisions without being locked into any bloc, maintaining relationships with all major powers. The concept of "enlightened national interest" (associated with thinkers like C Raja Mohan) argues that strategic autonomy must be operationalised by identifying concrete gains rather than symbolic neutrality.
Mohan's argument is a critique of reflexive non-alignment in the current conflict — arguing that India's vast diaspora and energy interests in the Gulf demand a more explicit prioritisation, which is what "enlightened national interest" means in practice.
India-Gulf Relations: Diaspora, Remittances, and Energy
India's relationship with the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries — Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman — is one of India's most economically consequential bilateral relationships. Approximately 10 million Indians work in GCC states, making it the world's largest concentration of Indian workers abroad. They collectively remit close to $51 billion annually (based on FY2025 data), accounting for roughly 38% of India's total inward remittances of ~$135 billion. India is also the Gulf's largest trading partner in Asia after China.
The 1,000:1 ratio of Indians in the Gulf versus Iran is Mohan's empirical anchor for his argument — India cannot treat Gulf Arabs and Iran symmetrically when the asymmetry in its human and economic stakes is this large.
India's Energy Security and West Asia Exposure
India's crude oil import structure makes it acutely vulnerable to West Asian instability. The Gulf region (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, and others) supplies over 60% of India's crude imports. India paid approximately $132 billion for crude oil imports in FY2024-25. Any sustained spike in crude prices (as would follow a Strait of Hormuz disruption) hits India through multiple channels: higher petrol/diesel prices (inflation), larger import bill (current account deficit widening), fiscal stress (through LPG subsidies), and rupee depreciation.
Key Details
- India is the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer.
- Top crude suppliers to India: Iraq (~22%), Saudi Arabia (~17%), UAE (~11%), Russia (~18%, post-2022 Ukraine war discount buying).
- India's current account deficit directly worsens with every $10/barrel rise in crude — estimated impact: ~$15 billion per year.
- India has been diversifying supply toward Russia (discounted Urals crude) to reduce West Asia dependence.
- Iran-India oil trade: India was a major buyer of Iranian crude until US sanctions (2018) forced near-total halt.
India's limited exposure to Iran (very few citizens, negligible oil imports due to sanctions) and enormous exposure to the Gulf Arabs directly validates Mohan's argument — India's "national interest" computation almost entirely favours the Gulf Arab side of the equation.
- Indians in Arab Gulf states (GCC): ~10 million workers
- Indians in Iran: ~10,000 (a 1,000:1 ratio)
- Gulf remittances to India (FY2025): ~$51 billion (~38% of total inward remittances of ~$135 billion)
- India's total inward remittances: world's largest recipient
- India's crude oil import bill FY2024-25: ~$132 billion
- Gulf region share of India's crude imports: >60%
- India-Iran oil trade: near-zero since US sanctions reimposed in 2018
- Non-Aligned Movement founded: 1961 (Bandung spirit, Belgrade Conference)
- India's "multi-alignment" concept: post-Cold War evolution of Non-Alignment doctrine
- UAE hosts ~3.5 million Indians — largest single-country Indian diaspora globally