WMO: 2026 Set to Be Among the Four Warmest Years as Earth's Energy Imbalance Hits a Record
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its State of the Climate Update 2026 at the start of the UN climate conference COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye. It says 2026 will be one of the four warmest years on record.
The global average temperature for January to September 2026 was about 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels (the 1850–1900 average). This is higher than the full-year figures for 2025 and 2023, and only a little below 2024, the warmest year on record.
The WMO expects the 2026 figure to rise further by December because of a strong El Niño (a natural warming of the Pacific Ocean) that has been building since August.
The main reason for rising temperatures, the report says, is that the Earth's energy imbalance has reached its highest level since monitoring began. In simple words, the planet is taking in more heat from the Sun than it sends back to space, and the gap is growing.
Greenhouse gases keep rising: carbon dioxide (CO₂) rose by about 53%, from about 278 ppm in 1750 to 426.8 ppm in 2025; methane rose by about 167%, from 729 ppb to 1,948 ppb. The ocean takes up about 90% of the extra heat, and 2026 is on track to be the tenth year in a row of record ocean heat.
Extreme events hit many regions: an estimated 146.5 million people in India were exposed to extreme heat during an April 2026 heatwave, and heat, drought and wildfires in Europe caused more than 30,000 excess deaths (preliminary estimate).
Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI): Why the Planet Keeps Heating Up
Earth's energy imbalance, or EEI, is the difference between the energy that reaches the Earth from the Sun and the energy that the Earth sends back out to space. If the two are equal, the planet's temperature stays steady. If more comes in than goes out, the extra energy stays behind as heat and the planet warms. Today the imbalance is positive and growing, which means the Earth is gaining heat every second.
The WMO names the record energy imbalance as the main reason why 2026 is among the warmest years even before El Niño peaks. Because about 90% of that extra heat goes into the oceans, the same imbalance explains the tenth straight year of record ocean heat reported in the update.
Greenhouse Effect: How Gases Trap Heat Around the Earth
The greenhouse effect is the natural process by which some gases in the air let sunlight in but trap part of the heat that the Earth gives off. Without it, the Earth's average temperature would be about −18°C instead of about 15°C, and life as we know it would not exist. The problem today is the enhanced greenhouse effect: humans are adding extra greenhouse gases, mainly by burning coal, oil and gas, cutting forests and from farming, so more heat is trapped than before.
The record CO₂ and methane levels in the WMO update are the main driver of the growing energy imbalance. More trapped heat means a warmer planet, warmer oceans and more extreme weather, which is what the 2026 figures show.
Paris Agreement Temperature Goal and the 1.5°C Threshold
The Paris Agreement is the world's main climate treaty. Its central aim is to keep the rise in the world's average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to try to limit it to 1.5°C. "Pre-industrial" means the period before large-scale burning of coal and oil; scientists use the 1850–1900 average as this baseline.
With 2023 to 2026 all close to or above 1.5°C, the WMO figures show how little room is left before the long-term average crosses the Paris limit. This is why the UN Secretary-General used COP31 to call for faster emission cuts and a quicker move away from fossil fuels.
- Global temperature, January to September 2026: about 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 average
- Warmest year on record: 2024 (about 1.55°C); 2026 set to be among the four warmest years
- The past four years are the warmest in the 177-year observational record
- CO₂: 426.8 ppm in 2025 (278 ppm in 1750, up 53%)
- Methane: 1,948 ppb in 2025 (729 ppb in 1750, up 167%)
- Ocean absorbs about 90% of excess heat; 2026 on track for the tenth straight year of record ocean heat
- 146.5 million people in India exposed to extreme heat in the April 2026 heatwave
- Europe: more than 30,000 excess deaths from heat, drought and wildfires (preliminary)
- COP31: Antalya, Türkiye, 9–20 November 2026