Earth's Frozen Regions Are Warming Faster Than the Rest of the Planet: What the New Cryosphere Reports Say
Two reports on the world's frozen regions were released on 2 November 2026, about a week before the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey. One is Overshoot and the Cryosphere: Averting Global Meltdown, prepared by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI) with the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). The other is State of the Cryosphere 2026: The Cost of Overshoot.
The reports say the Arctic has warmed up to four times faster than the global average over the past decade. In the Hindu Kush Himalaya, a 1.5°C rise in global temperature could mean 1.8°C to 2.2°C of warming in the region.
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are now losing ice about six times faster than in the 1990s.
Frozen ground (permafrost) under about 15% of the Northern Hemisphere's land, roughly 14 million sq km, holds at least 1,700 billion tonnes of carbon. If it thaws, much of this can escape into the air as greenhouse gases.
The reports warn that even a temporary rise above the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit (an "overshoot") can cause large and often permanent damage to ice and frozen ground. They call for deep emission cuts, a faster shift away from fossil fuels, and more money for adaptation.
A separate UN study on glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the Hindu Kush Himalaya, covering 1835 to 2025, found that India recorded the highest death toll from such floods (6,119), and that GLOF events have become about five times more frequent since 1950.
Cryosphere: The Frozen Parts of the Earth System
The cryosphere is the name for all the parts of the Earth where water is frozen solid. It includes snow, glaciers, ice sheets, ice caps, sea ice, ice on lakes and rivers, and frozen ground called permafrost. The word comes from the Greek word kryos, which means cold. Scientists treat the cryosphere as one of the main parts of the Earth's climate system, along with the air (atmosphere), the oceans (hydrosphere), the land (lithosphere) and living things (biosphere).
The new ICCI and UNEP reports are a check-up on the health of the whole cryosphere. They show that the feedback loops explained above are speeding up: the Arctic is warming up to four times faster than the globe, ice sheets are losing ice six times faster than in the 1990s, and the Himalaya will warm more than the global average. This is why the reports ask for warming to be kept as close to 1.5°C as possible.
Permafrost: The Frozen Ground Holding Mountains Together
Permafrost is ground (soil, rock or sediment) that stays at or below 0°C for at least two years in a row. It is found in the Arctic, Antarctica and high mountains like the Himalayas. It stores a very large amount of old plant and animal matter, which is rich in carbon. When permafrost thaws, microbes break down this matter and release carbon dioxide and methane, which cause more warming.
The reports warn that permafrost thaw is one of the main reasons an overshoot above 1.5°C is so risky. Once the carbon escapes, it cannot be easily put back, so the warming it causes continues even if human emissions later fall.
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF)
A Glacial Lake Outburst Flood is a sudden, powerful flood that happens when water held in a lake near a glacier breaks out. These lakes are often held back by weak walls of loose rock, debris and ice called moraines. When the wall breaks, for example after an ice avalanche falls into the lake or after very heavy rain, huge amounts of water rush down the valley within minutes or hours. As glaciers melt and shrink, more and bigger glacial lakes form, so the risk is growing.
The GLOF study shows how cryosphere warming turns into disasters on the ground. India has fewer recorded events than China or Pakistan but the highest death toll, which shows that preparedness and early warning, not just the number of lakes, decide how deadly these floods become.
Overshoot Pathways in Climate Science
An overshoot happens when global warming goes above a chosen limit, such as 1.5°C, for some time and is then brought back below it later. To bring temperatures back down, the world must first cut emissions to net zero and then remove carbon dioxide from the air. The danger is that some damage done during the overshoot period, such as lost ice and thawed permafrost, cannot be undone even when temperatures fall again.
The main message of the new reports is that the cryosphere is the part of the climate system least able to recover from an overshoot. Ice sheets and permafrost respond slowly, so even a "temporary" rise above 1.5°C could lock in sea-level rise and carbon release for centuries.
- Reports released 2 November 2026: Overshoot and the Cryosphere: Averting Global Meltdown (ICCI with UNEP) and State of the Cryosphere 2026: The Cost of Overshoot
- COP31: Antalya, Turkey
- Arctic warming: up to 4 times the global average over the past decade
- HKH: 1.5°C global warming could mean 1.8°C to 2.2°C regional warming
- Greenland and Antarctic ice loss: about 6 times the 1990s rate
- Northern Hemisphere land permafrost: about 15% of land (about 14 million sq km), holding at least 1,700 billion tonnes of carbon
- GLOF study (UNU-EHS): 1835 to 2025, 4.2 million sq km, 8 countries; India deaths 6,119 (highest); about 34 GLOFs per decade after 1950, about 5 times the earlier rate
- GLOF triggers: ice avalanches 50%, intense rainfall 25%; about 70% in the summer monsoon