UN's 2026 NDC Synthesis Report: Climate Pledges Cut Emissions Only 6% by 2035
The secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) released its 2026 NDC Synthesis Report on 27 October 2026. NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) are the climate action plans each country sends to the UN under the Paris Agreement.
The report covers 127 new NDCs representing 154 Parties to the Paris Agreement, submitted between 1 January 2024 and 31 August 2026.
If countries carry out only the parts of their plans they promised to do on their own, global greenhouse gas emissions in 2035 would be only about 6% below 2019 levels. Even if the conditional parts (those that depend on outside money and technology) are also done, the fall would be only about 9%.
The report says this is "substantially off track" from the cuts science says are needed to hold warming to 1.5°C. It says returning warming to 1.5°C would need substantial additional emission cuts in the coming years.
Most new NDCs are linked to net zero targets between 2040 and 2070, mostly 2050. Carrying out the NDCs and these long-term targets points to a best-estimate warming of about 1.7°C to 2.3°C by 2100.
The report came days after a separate UN assessment said the 1.5°C limit is now out of reach in the near term, and that the best the world can do is hold warming to about 1.8°C and then try to bring it back down.
NDC Synthesis Report (UNFCCC): How the UN Adds Up National Climate Pledges
The NDC Synthesis Report is a report prepared by the UNFCCC secretariat (the UN's climate office, based in Bonn, Germany). It collects the climate plans of all countries, called Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs, and adds them up. The result tells the world one simple thing: if every country does what it has promised, how much will global greenhouse gas emissions go up or down? It is like a teacher adding up every student's promised marks to see if the class will reach its target average.
The 2026 edition of this report is today's news. It shows that the 127 new NDCs would cut world emissions only 6% (or 9% with conditional pledges) below 2019 levels by 2035, against the roughly 60% cut the IPCC pathway asks for. This is why the report calls global progress "substantially off track".
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) Under the Paris Agreement
An NDC is the climate action plan that each country prepares and sends to the UN under the Paris Agreement. It says how much the country will cut or limit its greenhouse gas emissions and how it will adapt to climate change. "Nationally determined" means each country sets its own target; nobody imposes it from outside. Countries must send a new, stronger NDC every five years.
The synthesis report counts only new NDCs, mostly NDC 3.0 plans with 2035 targets. Its finding that they deliver just a 6% to 9% cut shows that the five-year ratchet has not yet raised ambition enough.
Paris Agreement Temperature Goal and the 1.5°C Threshold
The Paris Agreement's main goal is to keep the rise in global average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Pre-industrial means roughly the period 1850–1900, before large-scale burning of fossil fuels. Every NDC and every synthesis report is judged against this goal.
The report's projected 6% to 9% cut by 2035 is far from the 60% needed for 1.5°C. This is why UN assessments now say 1.5°C is likely to be crossed, and that the focus is shifting to keeping any overshoot as small and short as possible.
- Report: UNFCCC 2026 NDC Synthesis Report, released 27 October 2026
- Coverage: 127 new NDCs representing 154 Parties, submitted 1 January 2024 to 31 August 2026
- Projected 2035 emissions: about 6% below 2019 (unconditional); about 9% below 2019 (including conditional pledges)
- Required for 1.5°C (IPCC AR6): about 43% cut by 2030 and 60% by 2035 below 2019 levels
- Implied warming with NDCs and long-term targets: about 1.7°C to 2.3°C by 2100
- Most net zero targets: between 2040 and 2070, mostly 2050
- Annual synthesis report mandated by decision 1/CMA.3 (Glasgow, 2021)
- Paris Agreement Article 4: NDCs every 5 years; Article 2.1(a): well below 2°C, pursue 1.5°C
- India's NDC for 2035 (approved March 2026): 47% emissions intensity cut from 2005 levels; 60% non-fossil installed electricity capacity