UNEP's Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Emission Cuts Needed to Bring Warming Back to 1.5°C by 2100
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released its Emissions Gap Report 2026, titled The Point of Return, ahead of the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Türkiye (9 to 20 November 2026).
The report says keeping warming at 1.5°C with no overshoot (going above the limit even briefly) is no longer possible. The new aim is a small, short overshoot followed by a return to 1.5°C by 2100.
To follow this "lowest overshoot" path, world greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, all compared with 2025 levels. Warming would then peak around mid-century at about 1.7 to 1.8°C before coming back down.
Returning to 1.5°C by 2100 would also need a large, sustainable scale-up of carbon dioxide removal (taking CO2 out of the air and storing it).
Countries' current climate plans (Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs), even if fully carried out, would cut emissions by only 5 to 8% by 2030 and 11 to 15% by 2035 from 2025 levels. Current policies point to about 2.8°C of warming by 2100.
Global emissions in 2025 were about 58.4 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent, almost the same as in 2024. India's emissions were described as relatively flat in 2025.
Emissions Gap Report (UNEP): Measuring How Far the World Is From Its Climate Goals
The Emissions Gap Report is a yearly scientific report published by UNEP. It compares how much greenhouse gas the world is likely to release, based on countries' promises and policies, with how much it should release to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. The difference between the two is the "emissions gap". It is usually released just before the annual UN climate summit (COP), so negotiators can see how far off track the world is.
The 18%, 45% and 69% figures are this year's "should be" line in the report. The gap between them and the 5 to 15% cuts that current NDCs deliver is the emissions gap that COP31 will be asked to close.
Overshoot Pathways in Climate Science
An overshoot happens when global warming goes above a chosen limit, such as 1.5°C, for some time and is then brought back below it later. Think of a car that crosses a speed limit and then slows down again: the longer and faster it overspeeds, the more damage it can do. In climate terms, the risk is that some harm done during the overshoot, such as melting ice sheets or species loss, cannot be undone even when temperatures fall again.
UNEP's message is that the world is now planning for an overshoot, not avoiding it. The steep cuts it lists are meant to keep the overshoot as low and as short as possible, and to make a return to 1.5°C by 2100 realistic.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) Under the Paris Agreement
A Nationally Determined Contribution, or NDC, is a country's own climate action plan under the Paris Agreement. In it, each country states how much it will cut or limit its greenhouse gas emissions, and how it will adapt to climate change, usually for the next 5 to 10 years. The word "nationally determined" is the key: each country decides its own target, nobody fixes it from outside. All NDCs taken together decide whether the world can meet the Paris goal of keeping warming well below 2°C and trying for 1.5°C.
UNEP's 2026 report found that all current NDCs, even if fully met, cut emissions by only 5 to 8% by 2030 and 11 to 15% by 2035 from 2025 levels. That is far below the 18% and 45% cuts needed for the lowest overshoot path. This shortfall is why the report presses countries to strengthen their NDCs and actually deliver them, starting at COP31.
- Report: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026, The Point of Return
- Lowest 1.5°C overshoot path: cuts of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, 69% by 2040, all vs 2025 levels
- Peak warming on this path: about 1.7 to 1.8°C around mid-century; return to 1.5°C by 2100 needs large-scale CO2 removal
- 2°C path: cuts of 11% by 2030, 24% by 2035, 37% by 2040 vs 2025 levels
- Current NDCs, fully implemented: only 5 to 8% cut by 2030 and 11 to 15% by 2035 vs 2025
- Warming by 2100: current policies about 2.8°C; all NDCs about 2.6°C; NDCs plus net-zero pledges about 2.1°C
- Global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025: about 58.4 GtCO2e
- Limiting warming to 1.5°C with no more than about 0.1°C overshoot is no longer feasible
- COP31: Antalya, Türkiye, 9 to 20 November 2026