Myanmar Civil War and Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs)

Myanmar, India's eastern neighbour, has been in a civil war since its army seized power in a coup on 1 February 2021. On one side is Myanmar's military, called the Tatmadaw. On the other side are many armed groups: pro-democracy fighters called the People's Defence Force (PDF), and older Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) that have fought for the rights of minority communities for decades. The war matters to India because Myanmar shares a long border with four Northeastern states.

Why does it matter to India?

Think of a fire in your neighbour's house. Even if your own house is safe, smoke, sparks and people running out will reach you. The war in Myanmar sends refugees, weapons, drugs and armed groups towards India's border. It also affects India's big connectivity projects through Myanmar and India's competition with China for influence there.

Where did the conflict come from?

Myanmar has many ethnic groups. The largest group is the Bamar (Burman), mostly living in the central plains. Groups such as the Shan, Kachin, Karen, Chin, Rakhine (Arakanese) and others live in the hills around the edges.

• In February 1947, before independence, the Panglong Agreement was signed between Aung San (Myanmar's independence leader) and leaders of the Shan, Kachin and Chin peoples. It promised the ethnic areas autonomy (a share of self-rule). Its anniversary, 12 February, is still marked as Union Day.
• Myanmar (then Burma) became independent in 1948. The promised autonomy was not delivered, and several ethnic groups took up arms.
• In 1962, General Ne Win took power in a coup. The military ruled for most of the next five decades.
• The military wrote a new Constitution in 2008. It reserves 25% of seats in Parliament for military officers. Because a constitutional change needs more than 75% support, this gives the army a veto (a blocking power) over any change.
• From 2011, a partly civilian government took over. Aung San Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), won the 2015 election.
• In October 2015, the government signed a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) with 8 ethnic armed groups. Many large groups did not sign it.

What happened in 2021?

In the November 2020 election, the NLD won a huge victory, taking 396 seats. The military claimed fraud. On 1 February 2021, the army, led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, seized power and detained Aung San Suu Kyi and other leaders. Peaceful protests were met with force. Then:

• On 16 April 2021, removed lawmakers and their allies formed the National Unity Government (NUG), a "shadow government" that says it is the legitimate government.
• On 5 May 2021, the NUG formed the People's Defence Force (PDF), made up mostly of young protesters who took up arms.
• Many EAOs joined hands with the PDF against the military.

Who are the main fighting groups?

The resistance is not one army. It is many groups with different goals.

• Kachin Independence Army (KIA): in Kachin State in the north, near Arunachal Pradesh and China.
• Arakan Army (AA): in Rakhine State in the west. By early 2026, it controlled 14 of Rakhine's 17 townships.
• Karen National Union (KNU): in the southeast, near Thailand.
• United Wa State Army (UWSA): a large, well-armed group near China.
• Chin groups: in Chin State, next to Mizoram. Chin people share close ethnic ties with the Mizos.
• Kuki groups such as the Kuki National Army-Burma (KNA-B): active in Sagaing Region west of the Chindwin River, near Manipur. After the coup, the KNA-B fought the military alongside the PDF and the Kachin Independence Army.

How did the war develop?

A turning point came on 27 October 2023 with Operation 1027. It was launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, made up of:

• the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA),
• the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and
• the Arakan Army (AA).

Within two weeks, they captured over 100 military posts and several towns in northern Shan State, including border crossings with China. This showed the military could be beaten. Later, pressure from China on some ethnic groups slowed their advance. The military also began forced recruitment (conscription) in 2024.

Where does it stand now?

As of mid-2026:

• The military held an election in phases between December 2025 and January 2026. Its backed party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), won more than 72% of seats. The UN and many governments called the election neither free nor fair, as voting could not be held in large areas.
• Min Aung Hlaing became President in April 2026, and a new army chief took over.
• The resistance still controls a large part of the country, often estimated at one-third to one-half. Analysts describe the war as a stalemate, where neither side can win outright.
• Tens of thousands have been killed, and the UN reports at least 3.6 million people displaced inside Myanmar.

India's position and interests

India follows a careful, balanced approach. It keeps working ties with whoever is in power in Naypyidaw (Myanmar's capital), while calling for a return to democracy and dialogue. India's key interests are:

• Border security: stopping Indian insurgent groups from using camps in Myanmar.
• Connectivity: the Kaladan project (through Rakhine and Chin areas, now held by the Arakan Army and Chin groups) and the Trilateral Highway to Thailand.
• China: China has large investments in Myanmar, such as the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor and the Kyaukphyu port. India does not want Myanmar to depend only on China.
• Refugees: Over 80,000 people have fled to India since the coup, mostly to Mizoram, where they have close ethnic ties with the Mizo people.

India is also part of BIMSTEC and works with ASEAN. In April 2021, ASEAN agreed a Five-Point Consensus with the military leader: end violence, hold dialogue among all parties, appoint a special envoy, allow humanitarian aid, and let the envoy visit all parties. It has largely not been followed.

Commonly confused concepts

• Tatmadaw vs PDF vs EAOs: The Tatmadaw is Myanmar's official military. The PDF is the new armed wing of the pro-democracy NUG, formed in 2021. EAOs are older ethnic armies, some fighting since the 1940s and 1960s, for autonomy of their own communities.
• NUG vs NLD: The NLD is Aung San Suu Kyi's political party. The NUG is a shadow government formed after the coup. It includes NLD members but also ethnic representatives.
• Three Brotherhood Alliance vs NCA signatories: The Brotherhood (MNDAA, TNLA, AA) launched Operation 1027 in 2023. The NCA of 2015 was signed by a different set of 8 groups, such as the Karen National Union and the Chin National Front.
• Panglong Agreement (1947) vs 21st Century Panglong Conference: The first was the original promise of autonomy before independence. The second was a series of peace talks started in 2016 that tried to revive that promise.

Issues, criticism and the way forward

• Humanitarian crisis: Mass displacement, air strikes on villages and food shortages have created one of Asia's worst crises.
• Spillover into India: Armed groups, weapons and drugs cross the border. Ethnic groups in Myanmar may take sides in ethnic tensions in Manipur, and vice versa.
• India's dilemma: Critics say India's engagement with the military ignores democratic values. The government's position is that engagement is needed to protect border security and connectivity, and to limit China's influence.
• Split resistance: The resistance has no single command. Some groups fight each other or follow only their own ethnic goals.
• Way forward: Experts suggest an inclusive dialogue among the military, the NUG and EAOs; a federal system that gives real autonomy to ethnic areas; safe humanitarian access; and for India, quiet engagement with all sides, including ethnic groups near its border.

Concepts to Know

• Coup: When the army or a small group seizes power from a government by force or by illegal means.
• Shadow government: A group that says it is the rightful government of a country but does not control the state machinery.
• Autonomy: The right of a region or community to run many of its own affairs while staying part of the country.
• Stalemate: A situation in a conflict where neither side can defeat the other.
• BIMSTEC: Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, a regional group of seven countries around the Bay of Bengal, including India and Myanmar.