Houthi Threat to Red Sea Shipping Renews India's Energy Security Concerns
Yemen's Houthi movement has threatened to target Saudi-linked shipping transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, prompting at least two Saudi crude tankers bound for India and China to turn back
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait has emerged as an additional maritime chokepoint risk alongside the Strait of Hormuz for India's energy imports
Analysts assess that India faces a price and logistics shock rather than an immediate crude supply crisis, given diversified sourcing
Saudi Arabia's crude supply to India has already declined sharply, with alternative routes and suppliers such as Russia, the UAE, and Oman available without transiting either chokepoint
Bab el-Mandeb Strait: Geography and Strategic Significance
Bab el-Mandeb is a narrow maritime strait connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea, forming a critical link on the shipping route between Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal.
Threats to shipping in this strait force tankers bound for India to either risk transit or divert via the Cape of Good Hope, sharply increasing voyage time and cost.
Strait of Hormuz: The Primary Comparator Chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman, is the world's most important oil chokepoint and the traditional reference point for assessing India's energy-security exposure.
With Bab el-Mandeb now also contested, India's energy planners face simultaneous risk exposure on two of the world's most consequential oil chokepoints rather than one.
India's Crude Sourcing Diversification and Energy Security Strategy
India's energy security approach since the mid-2010s has emphasised diversifying crude oil sources away from traditional Gulf suppliers, particularly following sanctions-driven shifts in global crude flows after 2022.
Key Details
- Russia has become one of India's largest crude suppliers by volume in recent years, reachable without transiting either Hormuz or Bab el-Mandeb
- The UAE's Fujairah port and Omani crude offer additional non-chokepoint-dependent supply options, with shorter alternate sailing times (4-5 days) compared to longer diverted routes
- India maintains Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) at Visakhapatnam, Mangalore, and Padur, built under the Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Limited (ISPRL) programme, to cushion short-term supply disruptions
- Saudi Arabia's supply share to India has declined from roughly 1 million barrels per day in February to around 300,000 barrels per day by June, reflecting this diversification trend
This diversification is why analysts assess the immediate impact on India as a cost and logistics issue rather than a supply crisis, even as both major chokepoints face disruption risk.
Houthi Movement and the Red Sea Shipping Crisis
The Houthis (Ansar Allah) are an Iran-aligned armed movement controlling parts of Yemen, which has targeted Red Sea shipping intermittently since late 2023 in connection with the wider West Asia conflict.
Key Details
- The Houthi movement has controlled Yemen's capital Sanaa since 2014-15, triggering Yemen's ongoing civil war
- UN Security Council Resolution 2216 (2015) demanded Houthi withdrawal from seized Yemeni territory, though the conflict has continued
- Since late 2023, Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb have repeatedly disrupted global trade, prompting international naval responses such as multinational maritime security patrols
- Such attacks have sharply raised shipping insurance and freight costs for vessels transiting the Red Sea corridor
The current threat to Saudi-linked tankers is a continuation of this multi-year pattern of Houthi disruption to Red Sea shipping, now directly affecting crude cargoes bound for India.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait width at narrowest point: ~32 km (20 miles); borders Yemen, Djibouti, Eritrea
- Bab el-Mandeb carries ~10% of global seaborne oil trade; third-busiest oil chokepoint globally
- Strait of Hormuz: ~20 million barrels/day transited in 2025; ~20% of global petroleum consumption; ~69% of its crude flows go to China, India, Japan, South Korea
- Saudi crude supply to India: fell from ~1 million barrels/day (February) to ~300,000 barrels/day (June)
- Alternative route via Cape of Good Hope can extend an 8-day voyage to India to as long as 39 days
- India's Strategic Petroleum Reserve facilities: Visakhapatnam, Mangalore, Padur