Iran hits out at Gulf neighbours as U.S. presses on with strikes
Hostilities between the United States and Iran continued for a third consecutive day, extending into strikes affecting Gulf states
Iranian forces conducted missile and drone attacks against the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain, in response to continued US strikes
Brent crude oil prices rose above $91 a barrel, the highest level since mid-June, driven by concerns over the continued operability of the Strait of Hormuz
A dispute persists over control of the Strait of Hormuz, with the United States asserting it as an international waterway and taking on a self-declared role of securing transit through it
Strait of Hormuz — Legal Status and Strategic Significance
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It is the world's single most important oil chokepoint, and because it is narrower than 24 nautical miles at its narrowest point, all transiting vessels must pass through the territorial waters of Iran and/or Oman.
Key Details
- Roughly 20-25% of global oil and a significant share of global LNG trade transits the Strait
- Under UNCLOS (1982), the Strait qualifies as an "international strait," where all ships and aircraft enjoy a right of "transit passage" that cannot be suspended by the bordering states
- Iran has signed but never ratified UNCLOS; it claims a narrower right of "innocent passage" over its territorial waters, which — unlike transit passage — can be suspended, creating the core of the current US-Iran legal disagreement
- The principle of transit passage through international straits is widely treated as customary international law, binding even non-ratifying states like Iran
The current stand-off is fundamentally a dispute over these two competing legal doctrines — transit passage (US position) versus innocent passage that Iran can restrict — with each side's naval and military actions aimed at asserting its interpretation on the ground.
Global and Indian Energy Security Exposure to Hormuz
Any disruption at the Strait has outsized effects on global energy markets because of the volume of oil and gas that has no practical alternative route, and India is directly exposed as a major importer along this corridor.
Key Details
- India is the second-largest destination for crude oil and condensate flows transiting the Strait, after China
- A significant share of India's LNG imports (over half) and LPG imports (around 90%) also transit the Strait, in addition to crude oil
- Brent crude, the international benchmark relevant to Indian import pricing (India imports over 85% of its crude requirement), rose above $91/barrel — its highest since mid-June — on the latest escalation
- India has been diversifying crude sourcing (including discounted Russian crude via non-Hormuz routes) to reduce dependence on Gulf supplies routed through the Strait
The oil price spike accompanying the Iran-Gulf states exchange illustrates the direct transmission mechanism from Gulf geopolitical instability to India's import bill, inflation (via fuel prices), and current account deficit.
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Iran's Regional Relations
The GCC is a regional political and economic union of six Gulf Arab states, several of which were targeted in the reported strikes, making the episode a test of the broader security architecture of the Persian Gulf region.
Key Details
- GCC members: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman; established 1981, headquartered in Riyadh
- All GCC members except Saudi Arabia and Oman were reported among the states targeted in the described strikes
- Iran and Gulf Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, have a history of proxy rivalry across Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, alongside periodic diplomatic normalisation efforts (e.g., the China-brokered Saudi-Iran rapprochement of March 2023)
- Oman has traditionally played a mediating/neutral role between Iran and Western powers, including facilitating past US-Iran back-channel talks
Strikes on multiple GCC states beyond the immediate US-Iran dyad signal a widening of the conflict into a regional confrontation, raising the stakes for oil-producing Gulf Arab states that are not direct parties to the underlying US-Iran confrontation.
- Brent crude: rose above $91/barrel, highest since June 11
- Strait of Hormuz: narrowest point under 24 nautical miles; ~20-25% of global oil trade transits it
- India: second-largest destination for oil flows through the Strait, after China
- GCC: 6 members (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman), established 1981
- Gulf states reported targeted in the described strikes: UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain
- Iran has signed but not ratified UNCLOS (1982)