Iran, US on brink of war again: For India, a lot to watch out for
Tensions between Iran and the United States have escalated again since mid-2026, following the collapse of an interim ceasefire that had briefly paused hostilities that began in February 2026.
The renewed exchange of strikes has kept the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea — under continued disruption, affecting global oil and gas shipping.
Over a crore Indian nationals live and work across the wider Gulf region, making the conflict a direct concern for diaspora safety, remittances and labour markets.
India has continued diplomatic engagement to safeguard its energy supplies, its citizens in the region, and shipping routes critical to its trade, while maintaining an official position of restraint and non-alignment between the warring parties.
The Strait of Hormuz and India's energy-security exposure
The Strait of Hormuz lies between Iran and Oman and is the primary sea route out of the Persian Gulf, normally carrying about a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade and roughly a fifth of global LNG trade. India imports the large majority of its crude oil and a significant share of its LNG, so any prolonged closure or blockade of the Strait directly threatens fuel prices, the current account, and the rupee, given oil's outsized weight in India's import bill.
Key Details
- India imports roughly 85% or more of its crude oil requirement and a substantial share of its natural gas/LPG.
- The 2026 conflict, which began in February with coordinated US-Israel strikes on Iran, led to a months-long blockade/closure of the Strait, sending Brent crude above $100 a barrel.
- India has responded by rerouting a larger share of crude imports outside the Strait (via Russia, West Africa, Latin America and non-Hormuz Gulf terminals) and deploying naval escorts for Indian-flagged vessels.
- India's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (ISPRL), with roughly 5.33 million tonnes of capacity across Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru and Padur, provides only about 9–10 days of buffer cover, making import diversification the primary short-term response tool.
A renewed round of Iran-US confrontation risks re-tightening the Hormuz bottleneck just as Indian trade and shipping had begun adjusting to the earlier disruption, reinforcing the urgency of the diversification strategy and any naval-escort operations already in place.
Indian diaspora safety and evacuation mechanisms
With well over a crore Indians resident across the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Iran, West Asia is home to India's largest overseas community, and remittances from the region form a major share of India's total inward remittance flows. When the initial 2026 conflict broke out, the Ministry of External Affairs launched "Operation Sindhu" to evacuate Indian nationals from Iran and Israel using chartered flights and Indian Air Force aircraft; subsequent MEA-led coordination has repatriated a very large number of Indians from across the wider Gulf region as the conflict has widened.
Key Details
- India's evacuation operation for the 2026 Iran-Israel conflict was named "Operation Sindhu," launched by the Ministry of External Affairs.
- Such named evacuation operations follow a precedent set by earlier MEA crisis responses (e.g., Operation Ganga for the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, Operation Kaveri for Sudan in 2023).
- Remittances from Gulf-based Indian workers are a major component of India's total remittance inflows, among the highest in the world.
- The Indian Embassy/MEA crisis-management cell coordinates repatriation with commercial carriers (e.g., Air India, Gulf-based airlines) alongside military airlift when required.
A fresh flare-up in Iran-US hostilities raises the risk of a further evacuation wave and heightened job/safety uncertainty for the diaspora, keeping MEA crisis-response mechanisms on alert.
India's diplomatic posture: strategic autonomy and non-alignment
India maintains substantive relationships with Iran (energy, Chabahar port, regional connectivity), Israel (defence and technology cooperation), the Gulf Arab states (large expatriate population, energy imports) and the United States (strategic partnership), which structurally pushes India toward a posture of neutrality and calls for de-escalation rather than taking sides in an Iran-US or Iran-Israel confrontation. This reflects India's long-standing doctrine of "strategic autonomy" — pursuing ties with multiple, even rival, powers based on national interest rather than bloc alignment, a continuation of the non-alignment tradition in a multipolar context.
Key Details
- India operates Chabahar port in Iran under a long-term agreement, seen as India's gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia bypassing Pakistan, and part of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
- India is a member of I2U2 (India-Israel-UAE-US) grouping for economic cooperation, illustrating simultaneous engagement with Gulf, Israeli and US interests.
- "Strategic autonomy" is the term generally used for India's post-Cold War foreign-policy approach of issue-based alignment rather than formal alliance membership.
- India is not currently a non-permanent UNSC member (its most recent term was 2021-22); it typically raises Gulf-conflict concerns through bilateral channels and multilateral statements rather than a Security Council seat.
As tensions escalate again, India's stated position is expected to continue emphasising restraint, protection of shipping lanes and civilians, and calls for diplomatic resolution, consistent with its interest in not jeopardising ties with Iran, Israel, the Gulf states or the US simultaneously.
- Renewed Iran-US hostilities followed the collapse of an interim ceasefire; the underlying conflict began with coordinated US-Israel strikes on Iran in February 2026.
- The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about 25% of world seaborne oil trade and about 20% of global LNG trade.
- Over a crore Indian nationals live and work across the Gulf region; over 3 lakh have been repatriated from West Asia since the conflict began, per official statements.
- India's MEA evacuation effort for this conflict is named "Operation Sindhu," following the naming convention of earlier operations like Operation Ganga (2022) and Operation Kaveri (2023).
- India's Strategic Petroleum Reserve provides roughly 9–10 days of crude cover (about 5.33 million tonnes across three sites).