PM Modi’s UAE visit to focus on India’s energy security: MEA
The Prime Minister is scheduled to visit Abu Dhabi on May 15, 2026, as the first stop on a five-nation tour (UAE, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Italy; May 15–20), with the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) stating that bilateral energy cooperation will be the central agenda item.
The visit comes in the context of disruptions to India's Gulf energy supply chains due to ongoing conflict in West Asia, making direct state-to-state energy agreements with key suppliers more critical than ever.
The UAE recently exited OPEC+ (the alliance of major oil-producing nations), which makes direct bilateral energy deals between India and the UAE commercially and strategically more viable without OPEC+ quota constraints.
The two sides are expected to advance the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (elevated to this level during the UAE President's visit to India in January 2026, when a Letter of Intent for a formal Strategic Defence Partnership was signed).
India-UAE bilateral trade crossed USD 105 billion in FY 2024–25 — surpassing the original CEPA target ahead of schedule — and both sides have a joint ambition to reach USD 200 billion by 2030.
The Indian diaspora in the UAE numbers over 4.5 million, making it the largest expatriate community in the country.
India-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), 2022
The India-UAE CEPA was signed on February 18, 2022, and entered into force on May 1, 2022. It was negotiated in a record 88 days, making it one of the fastest-concluded modern free trade agreements. The CEPA is India's first FTA with a Gulf country and covers trade in goods, trade in services, investment, intellectual property, government procurement, and competition policy.
Key Details
- Signed: February 18, 2022; effective from May 1, 2022
- Nature: Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) — covers goods, services, investment
- Tariff elimination: India agreed to eliminate/reduce tariffs on 80% of UAE exports; UAE agreed to eliminate/reduce tariffs on ~90% of Indian exports
- Bilateral trade: USD 43.3 billion (2020–21) → USD 85.6 billion (2023–24) → USD 105.76 billion (2024–25) — trade nearly doubled in 3 years after CEPA
- Target: USD 200 billion bilateral trade by 2030
- UAE is India's: 3rd largest trade partner; 7th largest source of FDI into India
- Key sectors: petroleum and petroleum products, gems and jewellery, machinery, metals
- Trade deficit: India runs a structural deficit (~USD 26.8 billion in FY25) due to crude oil import dependency
The CEPA established the foundational architecture for deepened economic engagement; the Modi visit builds on it to add energy-specific bilateral deals (LNG supply, crude oil storage, pipeline MoUs) that can help insulate India from multilateral supply disruptions.
India's Energy Import Dependence — Crude Oil and Gulf Exposure
India is the world's third-largest consumer of crude oil and petroleum products, and one of the most import-dependent major economies. Domestic crude oil production meets only about 10–12% of demand; the remainder (approximately 88–89%) is imported. The Gulf region has historically supplied over 60% of India's crude oil imports, making West Asia geopolitics a direct energy security concern for India.
Key Details
- Crude oil import dependence: ~88–89% of domestic consumption (FY 2024–25)
- Gulf's share of crude imports: ~60–63% (reduced from 72% in 2017–18 due to Russian supply diversification)
- Russia's share: rose dramatically to ~35.8% of India's crude imports (FY 2024–25) due to discounted pricing post-Ukraine sanctions
- UAE's role: a major crude oil, LNG, and LPG supplier; ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) is a key counterpart
- LNG deals: India signed a USD 3 billion LNG supply deal with ADNOC Gas (0.5 million tonnes/year to HPCL over 10 years)
- Strait of Hormuz: roughly 50% of India's crude imports and over 60% of LNG/LPG shipments transit this chokepoint
- Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR): India has SPR facilities at Vishakhapatnam, Mangaluru, and Padur (total ~5.33 million tonnes capacity); UAE has agreed to explore crude oil storage in Indian SPR facilities
The Modi-UAE summit takes place precisely because the Strait of Hormuz conflict disruptions have exposed how tightly India's energy security is tied to Gulf stability. Direct bilateral energy agreements — outside OPEC+ quota constraints — are a hedging mechanism for India.
India-UAE Comprehensive Strategic Partnership — Diplomatic Architecture
India-UAE diplomatic relations, established in the 1970s, underwent a qualitative transformation after the Prime Minister's 2015 visit to the UAE — the first by an Indian head of government in 34 years. Relations were elevated to a "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership" through subsequent bilateral summits. A Strategic Defence Partnership framework was signalled through a Letter of Intent signed during the UAE President's January 2026 state visit to India.
Key Details
- Diplomatic relations: established 1972
- 2015: Prime Minister's visit (first in 34 years); bilateral economic and cultural agreements signed
- 2017: Comprehensive Partnership established
- 2022: UAE President's visit to India; CEPA signed; bilateral investment targets set
- January 2026: UAE President's state visit to India; Letter of Intent for Strategic Defence Partnership signed; four bilateral agreements in the energy sector signed
- Strategic Defence Partnership areas: defence manufacturing, technology transfer, training, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism
- Indian diaspora: 4.5 million Indians in the UAE (largest expatriate community); annual remittances ~USD 15–18 billion
The May 2026 visit deepens an already maturing relationship — moving from trade and investment (cemented by CEPA) toward a full strategic partnership that now incorporates energy security as a pillar, in response to the new geopolitical context of a conflict-affected West Asia.
India's Energy Security Policy Framework
India's energy security strategy rests on four pillars: (i) domestic production enhancement (OALP — Open Acreage Licensing Policy); (ii) import diversification across geographies and modalities; (iii) strategic petroleum reserves; and (iv) accelerated transition to renewables (500 GW non-fossil capacity target by 2030 under NDC commitments). The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas is the nodal ministry; the Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) under the Ministry of Power handles energy conservation frameworks.
Key Details
- India's oil imports bill: approximately USD 120–130 billion annually (one of the largest items in the import basket)
- OALP: Open Acreage Licensing Policy — allows exploration companies to select blocks on a round-the-year basis
- India's renewable target: 500 GW non-fossil electricity capacity by 2030 (updated NDC commitment, 2022)
- IEA membership: India became a full member of the International Energy Agency (IEA) — previously an Associate Member — in 2021, deepening its integration with global energy security architecture
- Abraham Accords (2020): UAE's normalisation of relations with Israel restructured West Asian geopolitics; India's ties with both parties make it a significant stakeholder in the new Gulf diplomatic order
- India Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd (ISPRL): manages India's SPR facilities under the Ministry of Petroleum
The UAE visit operationalises multiple pillars of this framework simultaneously: LNG supply agreements (diversification), crude storage MoUs (reserves), and the broader strategic engagement that keeps Gulf supply lines politically insulated for India.
- India-UAE CEPA: signed February 18, 2022; in force from May 1, 2022
- Bilateral trade: USD 43.3 bn (2020–21) → USD 105.76 bn (2024–25); target USD 200 bn by 2030
- UAE is India's 3rd largest trade partner; 7th largest FDI source
- India's crude oil import dependence: ~88–89% (FY 2024–25)
- Gulf's share of India's crude imports: ~60–63%
- Russia's share: ~35.8% of India's crude imports (FY 2024–25)
- India's LNG deal with ADNOC Gas: USD 3 billion; 0.5 million tonnes/year to HPCL over 10 years
- Indian diaspora in UAE: 4.5 million (largest expatriate community in UAE)
- India's SPR capacity: ~5.33 million tonnes at three sites (Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru, Padur)
- UAE exited OPEC+ (effective 2025), enabling direct bilateral crude supply deals outside cartel quota constraints
- IEA membership: India became a full member in 2021
- India's renewable electricity target: 500 GW non-fossil by 2030