Iran-Israel war LIVE: Trump urges Iran to 'do the smart thing'
The Iran-Israel conflict, which escalated dramatically through the "Twelve-Day War" in June 2025 (involving US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites), has continued to generate regional and global repercussions into 2026.
The US conducted "Operation Epic Fury" — airstrikes on Iranian military, governmental, and nuclear infrastructure — with Israel providing targeting intelligence; Iran retaliated with drone and ballistic missile strikes on Israel and US military bases across the region.
All six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states were struck by Iranian retaliatory fire — airports, ports, and military facilities in Bahrain and the UAE were targeted.
The conflict triggered a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent crude oil above $100 per barrel for the first time in four years — peaking at $126 per barrel — a 40%+ spike from pre-war levels of ~$65.
US-Iran indirect diplomatic negotiations (via Oman) began in early 2026 but have produced no agreement; the US administration has signaled airstrikes remain on the table while maintaining diplomacy is preferred.
The Strait of Hormuz: Global Energy Chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It is the world's most critical oil chokepoint — approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil per day, or roughly 20% of global oil consumption, transits the strait. Any closure or disruption triggers immediate global oil price spikes and supply chain crises.
Key Details
- Approximately 35% of global seaborne crude oil and 20% of global LNG transits the Strait of Hormuz.
- Major exporters dependent on this route: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iran itself.
- India's dependence: approximately 40–45% of India's crude oil imports passed through the Strait of Hormuz before recent diversification efforts; by March 2026, India had shifted ~70% of crude imports to alternative routes.
- The 2026 conflict-driven closure has been compared to the 1973 Oil Crisis in structural significance — described as "the largest disruption in the history of the global oil market."
- Brent crude surpassed $100/barrel on 8 March 2026 and peaked at $126/barrel.
India's energy security is directly threatened by Strait of Hormuz disruptions. India imports ~89% of its crude oil (FY2024-25 data), and the West Asian supply corridor is critical. A prolonged conflict-driven closure would spike inflation, widen the current account deficit, and stress India's fiscal position.
India's West Asia Policy: Balancing Multi-Alignment
India's engagement with West Asia is one of its most consequential foreign policy domains — involving the Gulf states (source of 8+ million Indian diaspora and over $100 billion in annual remittances), Iran (Chabahar Port, connectivity to Central Asia and Afghanistan), and Israel (defense cooperation, technology, agriculture). India has historically maintained ties with all parties simultaneously, a posture demanding constant diplomatic balancing.
Key Details
- India-Israel relations: defense cooperation is the backbone — India is Israel's largest arms customer; Israeli agricultural and water technology has transformed Indian drip irrigation practices.
- India-Iran relations: the Chabahar Port in Iran's Sistan-Baluchestan province is India's gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan; India has committed significant investment in the port's development.
- India-Gulf relations: 8.5 million Indian diaspora in the Gulf (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain); remittances from the Gulf exceed $50 billion annually.
- India's Iran-Israel balancing act: India has avoided taking sides, calling for de-escalation and dialogue; any forced choice would damage either strategic connectivity (Chabahar) or defense and tech cooperation (Israel).
- India has benefited from the Abraham Accords (2020) — normalization of Israel-Arab relations enabled the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) framework.
An escalating Iran-Israel conflict directly strains India's multi-alignment posture. Damage to Chabahar disrupts India's Central Asia connectivity strategy; diaspora safety in Gulf states becomes a domestic concern; and oil price spikes translate into inflationary pressure on the Indian economy.
Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Iran's Nuclear Program
Iran's nuclear program has been a central source of global security tension since the early 2000s. The international community's primary framework for managing nuclear proliferation is the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), supplemented by IAEA safeguards and, specifically for Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA — the Iran nuclear deal).
Key Details
- NPT (1968): 191 state parties; obligates non-nuclear weapon states to forgo nuclear weapons development in exchange for peaceful nuclear energy access and disarmament commitments from nuclear states.
- JCPOA (2015): Iran agreed to cap uranium enrichment, reduce centrifuge numbers, and accept enhanced IAEA inspections; in return, the US, EU, and UN lifted nuclear-related sanctions. The US unilaterally withdrew in 2018 (Trump's first term); Iran has been enriching uranium above JCPOA limits since.
- IAEA: the International Atomic Energy Agency verifies nuclear compliance; its safeguards system is the key monitoring tool under NPT.
- US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites (June 2025) — described as targeting enrichment facilities — represent the most significant direct military action against a nuclear program since the Israeli airstrike on Iraq's Osirak reactor (1981) and Syria's Al-Kibar facility (2007).
- India's position: India is not party to the NPT (along with Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea) but supports global non-proliferation norms and is a member of the IAEA and Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
The military destruction of Iranian nuclear infrastructure resets the non-proliferation calculus in the region and raises questions about the viability of diplomacy-first frameworks when states believe adversaries are approaching nuclear capability. This has implications for how other states — including in South Asia — interpret nuclear security guarantees.
- Strait of Hormuz: ~20 million barrels/day transiting; 35% of global seaborne crude, 20% of global LNG
- India's crude import dependence: ~89% imported (FY2024-25)
- India's Hormuz exposure (pre-conflict): ~40–45% of crude imports; reduced to ~30% by March 2026 via diversification
- Brent crude price peak: $126/barrel (March 2026), up from ~$65 pre-war
- Indian diaspora in Gulf: 8.5 million people; annual remittances exceeding $50 billion
- Chabahar Port: India's connectivity gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan
- JCPOA (2015): US-Iran nuclear deal; US withdrew in 2018 (Trump first term)
- NPT (1968): 191 state parties; India is not a signatory
- IAEA: Vienna-based; verifies nuclear compliance under NPT safeguards
- GCC states all affected by Iranian retaliatory strikes: Bahrain and UAE sustained strikes on civilian infrastructure
- Operation Epic Fury: US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites (June 2025)
- Abraham Accords (2020): Israel-Arab normalization; enabled IMEC framework
- IMEC: India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor — announced at G20 New Delhi (2023)