India-Canada CEPA Talks Advance After Diplomatic Reset: $50 Billion Trade Target by 2030
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal held a productive meeting with Canada's Minister of International Trade Maninder Sidhu to advance negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Canada
The discussions focused on the framework and key parameters for advancing the CEPA, with both ministers reaffirming commitment to a fair and balanced outcome
CEPA negotiations had been formally relaunched with Terms of Reference (ToR) signed in early March 2026 in New Delhi, with Prime Ministers Modi and Carney both present
The target: $50 billion in bilateral trade by 2030, up from the current approximately $6.5 billion annually
The resumption represents a significant diplomatic reset after years of strained ties following the 2023 Nijjar crisis that had led to suspension of trade talks
The proposed CEPA will cover trade in goods, services, and other mutually agreed policy areas, including market access, rules of origin, customs procedures, and trade facilitation
India-Canada Diplomatic Relations: From Collapse to Reset
India and Canada share over 75 years of diplomatic relations, with a large Indian diaspora of approximately 1.8 million in Canada serving as a people-to-people bridge. Relations underwent a severe rupture in September 2023 when then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly alleged potential Indian government involvement in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar — a Canadian Sikh activist — in British Columbia. India strongly denied involvement. The crisis led to diplomatic expulsions, mutual reduction of embassy staff, and the suspension of CEPA trade talks. With Justin Trudeau's resignation and the election of Mark Carney as Canada's new Prime Minister, 2026 saw a diplomatic reset underpinned by shared economic interests.
The CEPA resumption is explicitly linked to both the political leadership change in Canada and the broader economic context of US tariffs pressuring both countries to diversify trade relationships — creating a diplomatic opening that the Nijjar crisis had foreclosed.
Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA): Structure and Significance
A Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) is a broad trade framework covering trade in goods (tariff reduction/elimination), services (market access), investment (protection and facilitation), intellectual property, and other areas like government procurement and competition policy. It goes beyond a simple Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in scope. India has previously concluded CEPAs with Japan (2011) and South Korea (2010), and a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) with Singapore (2005).
The CEPA resumption, if concluded successfully, would unlock significant trade potential — Canada's abundant natural resources (pulses, potash, energy) complementing India's manufacturing and services strengths — while also strengthening India's position as a hub for goods entering the Canadian market.
India's FTA Strategy: Expanding Market Access
India has been actively negotiating and concluding FTAs/CEPAs as part of its trade policy reset since 2021. After a period of FTA scepticism (India withdrew from RCEP in 2019), the government under Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has aggressively pursued bilateral agreements with major economies. The India-UAE CEPA (2022), India-Australia ECTA (2022), and ongoing negotiations with the UK, EU, GCC, and Canada reflect a strategic shift toward bilateral market access deals.
The India-Canada CEPA resumption fits into a broader pattern of India's active bilateral trade diplomacy, with the US tariff disruption creating urgency to diversify market access and reduce dependence on any single trading relationship.
- India-Canada bilateral trade (FY 2025-26, April-January): approximately US$6.48 billion
- Trade target: US$50 billion by 2030
- CEPA Terms of Reference signed: March 2, 2026 (New Delhi)
- Signatories: Piyush Goyal (India) and Maninder Sidhu (Canada), in presence of PM Modi and PM Carney
- Diplomatic rupture trigger: Trudeau's Nijjar allegation (September 2023)
- CEPA talks originally suspended: September-October 2023
- Indian diaspora in Canada: approximately 1.8 million people
- Canada's key resource exports to India: pulses, potash, canola, coal
- India-UAE CEPA: concluded in 88 days (February 2022) — benchmark for swift bilateral deals
- India-EU FTA: concluded January 27, 2026 — another recent milestone in India's FTA strategy