El Niño Could Cost the World $11 Trillion: IFAD Report at COP31 Warns of Food Insecurity
A new report by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), a UN agency that funds farming in poor rural areas, was released on the opening day of COP31 (the UN climate summit) in Antalya, Türkiye.
The report is called Food Systems Under Stress: Building Resilience from the First Mile. It was published on 9 November 2026 by IFAD together with Türkiye's Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.
It warns that the 2026–27 El Niño could cause up to US$11 trillion in lost income across the world over the next five to six years. This is a severe-case estimate.
Citing World Food Programme (WFP) estimates, it says about 49 million more people could face acute food insecurity (a crisis level of hunger) by the end of 2027.
Southern Africa (Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe) faces a more than 50% chance of farm drought between October 2026 and March 2027. Rice-growing South and Southeast Asia is also at risk.
The report's models show that insurance alone cuts farm-income losses by 9.8%, but giving farmers inputs, market access and finance together cuts losses by 18.7%.
International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)
The International Fund for Agricultural Development, or IFAD, is a United Nations agency that gives money to improve farming and life in poor rural areas. It is both a specialised agency of the UN and an international financial institution, which means it works like a bank for development. It lends money on very soft terms, and sometimes gives grants, to governments of developing countries for projects that help small farmers, herders, fishers and rural women. Its headquarters is in Rome, Italy.
IFAD released its El Niño report at COP31 because its core job is protecting small farmers from shocks like drought. The report's main message, that inputs, markets and finance must be delivered together, is the same "investing in rural people" model IFAD uses in all its projects, including those in India.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
ENSO is a natural climate swing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Every few years the central and eastern Pacific becomes unusually warm (El Niño) or unusually cool (La Niña), and the winds and rainfall over the region change with it. These changes spread across the world through the atmosphere, shifting rainfall and temperature far away from the Pacific. For India, El Niño years are often linked with a weaker southwest monsoon and drought.
The IFAD report treats the 2026–27 El Niño as a global economic threat because it hits rain-fed farming in many regions at once. It comes on top of a 2026 energy price shock that raised fertiliser and fuel costs, so farmers face lower yields and higher costs at the same time.
- Report: Food Systems Under Stress: Building Resilience from the First Mile (IFAD and Türkiye's Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 9 November 2026)
- Released on the opening day of COP31, Antalya, Türkiye
- Possible global income loss from El Niño: up to US$11 trillion over 5–6 years (severe scenario)
- Extra people in acute food insecurity: about 49 million by end-2027 (WFP estimate)
- Southern Africa: more than 50% chance of farm drought, October 2026 to March 2027
- Insurance alone cuts farm-income losses by 9.8%; inputs + markets + finance together cut them by 18.7%
- Small-scale farmers produce about one-third of the world's food
- IFAD launched a US$70 million rural adaptation bond at COP31