EU Says Expectations Are Low From COP31, Pushes Clean Electrification as the Main Goal
The European Union's (EU) Commissioner for Climate said expectations from the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Türkiye are "low", but that real progress is possible if electrification becomes the main focus.
COP31 runs until 20 November 2026. Host Türkiye is inviting countries to join a voluntary pledge to raise the share of global energy demand met by electricity to 35% by 2035. The EU wants the pledge to stress clean electrification, which may raise debate about the role of coal, oil and gas.
Observers expect few breakthroughs because of an oil price shock and tensions linked to the US war with Iran and Russia's conflict in Ukraine. The United States, which has pulled out of the Paris Agreement, has not sent officials to the talks.
The EU questioned whether the COP system, which works by unanimity (consensus), is still "fit for purpose", since recent COPs have delivered little.
The EU repeated that there is no political will for new climate finance pledges at COP31 and called for "more burden sharing" among contributors.
Responding to criticism of recent EU rollbacks (such as plans to delay rules on methane), the EU pointed to its legally binding target to cut net emissions by 90% by 2040 compared with 1990 levels, which comes with some flexibility.
European Climate Law: The EU's Legally Binding Path to Climate Neutrality
The European Climate Law is the law that makes the European Union's climate goals legally binding. Its central rule is that the EU as a whole must reach climate neutrality by 2050. This means that by 2050, the greenhouse gases the EU still releases must be balanced by the gases it removes from the air, so the net result is zero. The law also sets binding steps on the way: a 55% net cut by 2030 and a 90% net cut by 2040, both compared with 1990 levels. Its official name is Regulation (EU) 2021/1119.
When criticised for weakening its climate rules, the EU pointed to its legally binding 90% target for 2040. That target is part of the European Climate Law, and its flexibilities, such as limited international credits, are exactly why environmental groups still question how ambitious the EU really is.
UNFCCC and the Conference of the Parties (COP)
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the main world treaty on climate change, agreed in 1992. The Conference of the Parties (COP) is its yearly meeting of all member countries ("Parties") and its highest decision-making body. Each COP has a presidency that runs the meeting and guides the talks.
The EU's comment that the COP's unanimity system does not always deliver "what is actually needed" goes to the heart of how COPs work. It also explains why the presidency is pushing a voluntary electrification pledge outside the formal talks, where no consensus is required.
New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on Climate Finance
The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) is the global target for how much money must flow to developing countries each year to help them deal with climate change. It was agreed at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November 2024. It replaced the older promise of USD 100 billion a year, first made in 2009.
The EU's warning that there is no political will for new funding pledges at COP31, and its call for more burden sharing, comes from the ongoing fight over who pays under the NCQG. Developing countries want developed countries to deliver more public money first.
- COP31: Antalya, Türkiye; runs until 20 November 2026; COP31 Presidency Türkiye, President of Negotiations Australia.
- Host's voluntary pledge: electricity's share of global energy demand to 35% by 2035 (from about 20 to 23% today).
- US has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement and sent no officials to COP31.
- EU target: 90% net cut in emissions by 2040 vs 1990, legally binding under the European Climate Law.
- European Climate Law: Regulation (EU) 2021/1119, in force 29 July 2021; 2040 amendment Regulation (EU) 2026/667.
- 2040 flexibility: international credits from 2036, capped at 5% of 1990 net emissions.
- EU 2035 NDC: 66.25% to 72.5% net cut vs 1990.
- NCQG (COP29, Baku, 2024): USD 300 billion/year by 2035 led by developed countries; USD 1.3 trillion/year from all sources.
- COP decisions require consensus.