Emissions Gap Report 2026: Why UNEP Says 1.5°C Without Overshoot Is Now Out of Reach
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released the Emissions Gap Report 2026, titled The Point of Return. It is the 17th edition of this yearly report.
UNEP says the chance of keeping global warming below 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot (going above the line only a little, for a short time) is now gone. The new aim is to keep the overshoot as small and as short as possible, and bring warming back to 1.5°C by 2100.
Global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 were about 58.4 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2e), roughly 0.1 GtCO2e lower than in 2024. But emissions from burning fossil fuels rose. The small total fall came from lower emissions from land use and forests, partly because 2025 had fewer wildfires than 2024.
G20 members (not counting the African Union) produce about 76% of world emissions. Their emissions (without land use) rose 0.7% in 2025. Over the past ten years, 63 countries cut emissions, while 124 countries increased them.
For the "lowest possible overshoot" path, world emissions must fall below 2025 levels by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040. Large-scale removal of CO2 from the air will also be needed to bring warming back down.
The report comes after 2024 became the first calendar year above 1.5°C of warming. Recent months stayed very hot: September 2026 was about 1.63°C above pre-industrial levels.
Emissions Gap Report (UNEP): Measuring How Far the World Is From Its Climate Goals
The Emissions Gap Report is a yearly scientific report published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). It compares two numbers: how much greenhouse gas the world is likely to release in the coming years, and how much it should release to keep warming within safe limits. The difference between the two is called the emissions gap. A bigger gap means the world is further away from its climate goals.
The 2026 edition, the 17th in the series, says the gap has now grown so large that 1.5°C cannot be held without overshoot. It measured 2025 emissions at 58.4 GtCO2e and set new required cuts of 18%, 45% and 69% by 2030, 2035 and 2040. This is exactly the report's job: adding up the world's efforts and showing how far they fall short.
Paris Agreement Temperature Goal and the 1.5°C Threshold
The Paris Agreement is the world's main climate treaty, adopted in 2015. Its central aim is a temperature goal: keep the rise in the Earth's average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. These two numbers are the measuring stick for every climate decision in the world. When news says "the 1.5°C goal is slipping away", it is talking about this goal.
The Emissions Gap Report 2026 says the "no or limited overshoot" route to the Paris 1.5°C goal is closed. The goal itself still stands, but the world will now go above 1.5°C and must work to bring temperatures back down by 2100. This is why the report talks about a "point of return" rather than a point of no return.
Overshoot Pathways in Climate Science
An overshoot happens when global warming goes above a chosen limit, such as 1.5°C, for some time and then is brought back below it later. An overshoot pathway is a plan for how the world's emissions could move so that warming first crosses the limit, reaches a peak, and then falls back. Think of a car that crosses a speed limit on a downhill road, then has to brake hard to come back to the right speed. The longer and faster it goes over the limit, the greater the danger.
The Emissions Gap Report 2026 says the world is now on an overshoot pathway: 1.5°C will be crossed. Its "lowest possible overshoot" route needs emission cuts of 18%, 45% and 69% by 2030, 2035 and 2040, plus large-scale removal of CO2, to bring warming back to 1.5°C by 2100.
- Emissions Gap Report 2026: 17th edition, title The Point of Return, by UNEP
- Global GHG emissions in 2025: 58.4 GtCO2e (about 0.1 GtCO2e lower than 2024)
- More than two-thirds of GHG emissions come from fossil sources; fossil CO2 emissions rose in 2025
- G20 (excluding the African Union): 76% of global emissions; their emissions rose 0.7% in 2025
- Past decade: 63 countries cut emissions, 124 increased them
- Required cuts from 2025 levels for the lowest possible overshoot: 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, 69% by 2040
- Goal: limit overshoot and return to 1.5°C by 2100
- 2024: first calendar year above 1.5°C (WMO: about 1.55°C)
- September 2026: global average 16.27°C, 1.63°C above pre-industrial (second-hottest September on record)
- Previous edition (2025, Off Target): NDCs lead to 2.3 to 2.5°C; current policies about 2.8°C