India’s power mix to shift from coal to renewables by 2070; Nuclear seen as key baseload: NITI Aayog
NITI Aayog released a study titled "Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero" projecting India's power sector fuel mix transformation
Under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), renewable energy's share in electricity generation could rise from around 20% in 2024-25 to over 80% by 2070
Coal's share in electricity generation is expected to decline sharply from the current 74% to 6-10% by 2070 under the same scenario
Nuclear energy is identified as a key baseload power source to complement the intermittent nature of solar and wind energy
The study projects that coal power will shift from an energy generation role to an "insurance against shortages" role
Total installed power capacity is projected to grow 14 times by 2070 in the net-zero pathway, dominated by solar and wind
India's Net Zero 2070 Target and Climate Commitments
India announced its net-zero emissions target for 2070 at COP26 in Glasgow (November 2021). This was accompanied by the "Panchamrit" — five climate action targets. India's updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) was submitted in August 2022 under the Paris Agreement framework.
Key Details
- Net Zero 2070: Announced by PM Modi at COP26, Glasgow, November 2021
- Panchamrit targets: (1) 500 GW non-fossil fuel energy capacity by 2030; (2) 50% electricity from renewable sources by 2030; (3) Reduce total projected carbon emissions by 1 billion tonnes by 2030; (4) Reduce carbon intensity of the economy by 45% by 2030 (from 2005 levels); (5) Net zero by 2070
- Updated NDC (August 2022): 45% reduction in emissions intensity of GDP by 2030 (from 2005); 50% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030
- Paris Agreement (2015, COP21): India ratified on 2 October 2016
- UNFCCC principle of CBDR-RC (Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities) under Article 3 — India advocates that developed nations must take the lead in climate action
The NITI Aayog study provides the first comprehensive government-led modelling exercise showing how India can achieve its 2070 net-zero target while simultaneously pursuing the Viksit Bharat (Developed India) 2047 goal.
India's Renewable Energy Landscape — Current Status and Targets
India has emerged as a global leader in renewable energy deployment. The country's installed renewable energy capacity (including large hydro) has grown substantially, and the government has set ambitious targets under the Panchamrit framework.
Key Details
- Installed RE capacity (as of January 2025): Approximately 203 GW (including large hydro); approximately 152 GW excluding large hydro
- Solar: Around 90 GW installed; National Solar Mission launched 2010 (Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission)
- Wind: Around 47 GW installed; India is 4th globally in wind energy capacity
- Target: 500 GW non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 (Panchamrit)
- International Solar Alliance (ISA): Co-founded by India and France at COP21 (2015); headquarters in Gurugram; 120+ member countries
- Green Hydrogen Mission: Launched January 2023; target of 5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) production by 2030; outlay of Rs 19,744 crore
- Solar capacity projections under net-zero: 3,250 to 5,500 GW by 2070 (NITI Aayog study)
The study projects that solar and wind will dominate India's future power mix, but this requires massive scaling — from current ~90 GW solar to potentially 5,500 GW by 2070, alongside large-scale battery storage and pumped hydro.
Nuclear Energy — India's Three-Stage Programme and Baseload Role
India's nuclear energy programme follows a unique three-stage approach designed by Homi Bhabha to utilise the country's limited uranium but abundant thorium reserves. Nuclear energy is increasingly viewed as essential for baseload power — providing continuous, reliable electricity that complements intermittent renewables.
Key Details
- Three-stage programme: Stage 1 — Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) using natural uranium; Stage 2 — Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs) using plutonium from Stage 1; Stage 3 — Thorium-based reactors using U-233 bred in Stage 2
- Current installed capacity: 8,180 MW from 24 reactors (as of 2025)
- Target: 22,480 MW by 2031-32 (10 PHWRs of 700 MW each under construction)
- Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR): 500 MW at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu — expected commissioning delayed multiple times
- India-US Civil Nuclear Deal (123 Agreement, 2008): Opened international nuclear commerce for India; NSG waiver in 2008
- Atomic Energy Act, 1962: Governs India's nuclear programme; Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) reports directly to the PM
- Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL): PSU responsible for nuclear power generation
The NITI Aayog study identifies nuclear energy as a "key baseload" source — critical because solar and wind are intermittent and India needs 24/7 reliable power supply for industrial growth aligned with the Viksit Bharat 2047 vision.
Climate Finance — Investment Requirements
Achieving net zero requires unprecedented capital mobilisation. The NITI Aayog study quantifies the investment gap between current policy trajectories and the net-zero pathway, highlighting the need for both domestic and international climate finance.
Key Details
- Total investment needed for net zero by 2070: USD 22.7 trillion (NITI Aayog estimate)
- Power sector alone: USD 14.23 trillion
- Estimated aggregate finance flows: USD 16.2 trillion
- Financing gap: USD 6.53 trillion — expected to require external sources
- Annual investment required: Approximately USD 500 billion
- Current climate finance flows to India: Estimated at USD 44 billion annually (CPI, 2023)
- Green Climate Fund (GCF): Multilateral fund under UNFCCC; India is both contributor and recipient
- Loss and Damage Fund: Operationalised at COP28 (2023) in Dubai
The USD 22.7 trillion price tag underscores why India consistently advocates for developed countries to honour their climate finance commitments under the CBDR-RC principle and the Paris Agreement.
- Coal's current share in power generation: 74%; projected 6-10% by 2070 (CPS)
- Renewables' current share: ~20%; projected over 80% by 2070 (CPS)
- Total installed capacity growth: 14 times by 2070 under net-zero pathway
- Solar capacity projection: 3,250 to 5,500 GW by 2070
- Total net-zero investment: USD 22.7 trillion; power sector: USD 14.23 trillion
- Financing gap: USD 6.53 trillion
- Coal demand projected to peak by 2050 at 1.83 billion tonnes (75% rise from current levels)
- Net Zero target year: 2070 (announced at COP26, November 2021)
- Panchamrit: 500 GW non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030; 50% RE share in electricity by 2030