Weak Monsoon Puts India's 20% Ethanol Blending Target at Risk: The Food vs Fuel Question
A weak 2026 monsoon (rainfall about 13% below normal, linked to a strong El Niño) has hurt crops like maize and sugarcane, which are the main raw materials for making ethanol in India.
Prices of maize and sugar have risen sharply (by roughly 40%, according to industry estimates), and rice prices have also gone up. This makes ethanol costlier to produce.
The government is putting food security first. It is wary of sending more grain to fuel when food prices are rising.
Industry estimates suggest the blending rate could slip from the 20% (E20) target to about 15–17% in the 2026-27 ethanol supply year.
Less ethanol in petrol means India must use more imported crude oil, which raises the import bill. The government has said it has no plan to raise blending beyond 20% for now.
Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP) Programme
The Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP) Programme is the Government of India's plan to mix ethanol, a fuel made from plants, into the petrol sold at petrol pumps. "E20" means petrol with 20% ethanol and 80% petrol. The aim is to cut crude oil imports, reduce pollution and give farmers an extra market for their crops.
The EBP depends on a steady supply of sugarcane, maize and rice. A weak monsoon cuts that supply and raises its price, so the programme's 20% blending level may fall to 15–17% in 2026-27, and India would need more imported crude to make up the gap.
Food vs Fuel Debate: Biofuels and Food Security
The food vs fuel debate asks one simple question: should crops and land be used to feed people and animals, or to make fuel for vehicles? When crops like maize, rice and sugarcane are turned into ethanol, less may be left for food and animal feed, and prices can rise. The debate becomes sharp in bad crop years.
The weak monsoon has turned the food vs fuel question from a theory into a real choice. With food prices rising, the government is choosing to protect food supply over meeting the 20% blending target, which is exactly the trade-off this debate describes.
- 2026 monsoon: about 13% below normal (El Niño year)
- Possible blending in ESY 2026-27: about 15–17%, against a 20% target
- EBP launched: 2003 (5% blending)
- National Policy on Biofuels: 2018; amended 2022 (E20 advanced from 2030 to ESY 2025-26)
- Ethanol Supply Year: 1 November to 31 October
- E20 reached: 2025
- Maize share in ethanol feedstock, 2025-26: about 37%
- PM JI-VAN Yojana (2G ethanol): 2019