India's Crude Oil Imports Hit a Record as Refiners Diversify Away From Russia and the Gulf
Ship-tracking data from Kpler shows India's crude oil imports set to reach a record of about 5.4 to 5.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in October 2026.
Russia supplied about 1.97 million b/d, roughly 35% of India's imports. This is far below July 2026, when Russia supplied 2.82 million b/d, or 55%. Higher freight (shipping) costs have reduced the price advantage of Russian oil.
Shipments from the Black Sea to India fell to about 190,000 b/d, from about 800,000 b/d in summer, because of security risks linked to the conflict in the region. More Russian oil now comes from northern Baltic and Arctic ports: Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Murmansk. China took a bigger share of Murmansk cargoes in August-September, helped by the summer opening of the Northern Sea Route.
Angola's supply jumped nearly tenfold to about 334,000 b/d, and Venezuela's rose to about 340,000 b/d. The Venezuelan oil is a heavy, high-sulphur crude that goes to a large private refinery at Jamnagar (Gujarat), which can process such difficult grades.
Supplies from the Middle East fell to about 2.3 million b/d (from 2.7 million b/d in September). Supplies from the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq dropped as attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz made the route risky. Saudi Arabia's arrivals rose, partly from cargoes loaded earlier.
Analysts expect refiners to pay more attention to reliable delivery than to the lowest price. India's crude import bill rose 46% to $90.6 billion in April-September 2026 as oil prices rose.
The Northern Sea Route (NSR): Geography and Strategic Significance
The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is a shipping lane along Russia's Arctic coast. It connects the Atlantic side of Europe to the Pacific side of Asia by sailing across the top of Russia, through icy Arctic seas. For ships going between northern Europe and East Asia, it can be about 40% shorter than the usual route through the Suez Canal. But it is frozen for much of the year, so it is usable mainly in summer and autumn, often with the help of icebreakers (special ships that break sea ice).
In summer 2026, China used the open Northern Sea Route to take more Russian oil from the Arctic port of Murmansk, so less of it came to India. As winter ice closes the route and ice-capable tankers become scarce, analysts expect some of this Russian crude to flow back towards India.
India's Energy Security and Import Dependence
Energy security means a country can always get the energy it needs, at a price it can afford. For India, the biggest part of this problem is crude oil, because it imports most of what it uses. India is one of the world's largest consumers and importers of crude oil, and its own oil production has been falling for over a decade. So any war, shipping attack or price jump abroad quickly affects fuel prices, inflation and the rupee at home.
The record October imports show diversification in action. As Russian supply became costlier and Gulf routes through Hormuz became risky, Indian refiners bought more from Angola, Venezuela and other sources, choosing reliable delivery over the cheapest price.
Black Sea: Geography and Strategic Significance
The Black Sea is an inland sea between south-eastern Europe and western Asia. It is bordered by six countries: Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, Turkey (Türkiye), Bulgaria and Romania. It connects to the Mediterranean only through the Turkish Straits (the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, with the Sea of Marmara between them). Because of this, it is a key route for exporting grain, oil and other goods from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
Security risks in the Black Sea cut its oil shipments to India from about 800,000 b/d in summer to about 190,000 b/d in October 2026, most of it CPC cargoes from Novorossiysk. Russian supplies shifted to Baltic and Arctic ports instead.
- India's crude imports in October 2026: a record of about 5.4-5.6 million b/d (Kpler estimate)
- Russian supply: about 1.97 million b/d (about 35%); July 2026 peak: 2.82 million b/d (55%)
- Black Sea shipments to India: about 190,000 b/d in October, down from about 800,000 b/d in summer; about 155,000 b/d of this was CPC cargo from Novorossiysk
- Angola: about 334,000 b/d (from 36,000 b/d in September); Venezuela: about 340,000 b/d (from 196,000 b/d)
- Middle East total: about 2.3 million b/d (from 2.7 million b/d); Saudi Arabia (Ras Tanura): 625,000 b/d
- Russian Baltic ports supplying India: Primorsk and Ust-Luga (India takes about 90% of their loadings); Arctic port: Murmansk
- India's crude import bill April-September 2026: $90.6 billion, up 46%
- India's crude import dependence: about 88%