Kenya faces hotter, riskier year after one of its warmest years in 2025
Kenya recorded its seventh warmest year in 36 years during 2025, extending a long-term warming trend of approximately 0.22°C per decade since 1991.
The Kenya Meteorological Department's annual report warns that 2026 will be hotter still, with above-average temperatures and uneven rainfall raising risks of heat stress, floods, and landslides.
There is a 58–61% probability of El Niño conditions developing between June and December 2026, which would further disrupt weather patterns.
Agricultural output suffered dramatically in 2025: maize and bean yields fell 21–35%, vegetable production dropped 39%, and maize stocks declined 37% — severely affecting food security.
Four types of extreme weather were recorded in 2025: extreme heat (January–February), extreme cold (June–August), heavy rainfall events (March–May and October–December), and strong coastal winds.
Climate-linked diseases including cholera and visceral leishmaniasis became more widespread; Kenya requires approximately KES 57.31 billion ($456.63 million) to address humanitarian needs through mid-2026.
Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: Vulnerability and Impact
Sub-Saharan Africa is among the world's most climate-vulnerable regions, despite contributing relatively little to cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The region faces a "climate paradox" — lowest historical emitter, highest per capita vulnerability. Kenya's experience is emblematic of broader African trends: rising temperatures, more variable rainfall, increased extreme events, and cascading impacts on agriculture, water, and health.
Key Details
- IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2022): Africa is warming faster than the global average; temperatures have risen 0.3°C above the global mean warming since pre-industrial times.
- 1.5°C threshold: Even at this target, Sub-Saharan Africa faces disproportionate impacts — crop yield losses of up to 20% for key staples by mid-century.
- Loss and Damage: The COP27 (Sharm el-Sheikh, 2022) agreement to establish a Loss and Damage fund was a direct response to climate-vulnerable nations like those in Africa.
- Kenya's warming rate (0.22°C/decade) is consistent with broader East African trends driven by the Indian Ocean warming and changing monsoon patterns.
- 2024 and 2025 ranked among the warmest years in the 176-year global observational record.
Kenya's climate data illustrates why developing nations insist on equity in climate negotiations — they bear costs disproportionate to their emissions, a core argument in UNFCCC/COP debates examined in UPSC.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Its Global Impacts
El Niño is a periodic warming of central and eastern Pacific Ocean surface temperatures that disrupts normal atmospheric circulation patterns, causing climate anomalies worldwide. Its counterpart, La Niña, involves cooler-than-average Pacific temperatures. ENSO is one of the most studied and UPSC-tested climate drivers.
Key Details
- El Niño: Weakens the Walker Circulation; causes drought in Australia, southern Africa; excess rainfall in parts of South America and East Africa.
- La Niña: The opposite; typically brings heavy rainfall to Australia and South Asia.
- ENSO cycle: Typically 2–7 years; events last 9–12 months on average.
- Impact on India: El Niño years tend to suppress the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), affecting agricultural output; La Niña years often bring above-average monsoon.
- 2023–24 El Niño was one of the strongest on record; 2026 forecast of 58–61% probability signals a new developing event.
- WMO tracks ENSO and issues seasonal forecasts; the Kenya Meteorological Department relies on these forecasts for national planning.
The forecast El Niño for June–December 2026 in East Africa is directly tied to Kenya's projected climate risks — providing a classic UPSC linkage between ENSO dynamics, regional climate impacts, and food/water security.
Food Security and Climate Nexus
Climate change is increasingly recognised as a threat multiplier for food security. Kenya's 2025 agricultural data — 21–35% yield drops for staple crops — illustrates how climate variability can rapidly erode food systems built around rain-fed agriculture. This is directly relevant to UPSC questions on food security, agricultural policy, and climate adaptation.
Key Details
- Kenya's agriculture: Approximately 75% of Kenya's population depends on rain-fed agriculture; the sector contributes 26% of GDP and 65% of export earnings.
- Staple crops at risk: Maize (the primary food staple), beans, and vegetables are all rain-dependent and highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall variability.
- Food insecurity cascade: Lower yields → higher food prices → reduced dietary diversity → malnutrition → increased vulnerability to disease.
- Adaptation strategies: Climate-resilient seed varieties, irrigation expansion, weather-indexed crop insurance, food storage buffers, early warning systems.
- Global food system linkages: Kenya's food crisis reinforces the case for the African nations' demands at COP30 (Belem, 2025) for increased climate finance.
The dramatic fall in Kenya's crop yields in 2025 demonstrates that climate change is no longer a future risk — it is present-tense food insecurity, affecting 75% of Kenya's population today.
- Kenya 2025: 7th warmest year in 36 years; warming rate 0.22°C per decade since 1991.
- December 2025: Hottest single month in the recorded period.
- El Niño probability (June–December 2026): 58–61%.
- Maize and bean yield decline in 2025: 21–35%.
- Vegetable production decline: 39%; maize stock decline: 37%.
- Climate-linked humanitarian funding needed (Feb–July 2026): KES 57.31 billion (~$456.63 million).
- Global context: 2025 ranked among 2nd or 3rd warmest in 176-year record; ~1.43°C above pre-industrial average.
- Diseases spreading: Cholera and visceral leishmaniasis.
- Western Kenya: Severe flooding, at least 88 deaths reported in early 2026.
- IPCC AR6 (2022): Africa warming faster than global average; disproportionate impact on food systems.