Pakistan will remain major security concern, threat for times to come: ex-CDS Chauhan
A former Chief of Defence Staff, in a lecture on threats and challenges to India's security, assessed that Pakistan will remain a "major security concern and threat" for the foreseeable future.
He described Pakistan's strategy as relying on nuclear deterrence to cap the scope of conventional conflict while simultaneously expanding sub-conventional operations, including cross-border terrorism.
He expressed concern that a joint defence agreement signed by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye on 7 August 2026 in Mecca could induce "overconfidence" in Pakistan and increase the risk of miscalculation.
He listed India's principal external security challenges as unresolved borders, cross-border terrorism and non-state actors, and growing competition in the space, cyber, and maritime domains, citing Operation Sindoor and earlier cross-border strikes as evidence of India's deterrence posture.
Sub-Conventional Warfare and Nuclear Deterrence (Pakistan's Strategy)
Sub-conventional warfare refers to conflict conducted below the threshold of full-scale conventional war, typically through proxy militants, terrorism, and covert operations, allowing a weaker conventional power to inflict costs while avoiding a war it could lose outright. Analysts of South Asian security have long described Pakistan's approach as using its nuclear arsenal to deter full-scale Indian retaliation, creating a "stability-instability paradox" in which the presence of nuclear weapons is believed to make lower-level proxy conflict safer for the weaker or more risk-tolerant party.
Key Details
- Pakistan conducted its first nuclear tests in May 1998 (Chagai-I), shortly after India's Pokhran-II tests the same month.
- India's declared nuclear doctrine (2003) rests on "No First Use" and "credible minimum deterrence"; Pakistan has not adopted a No First Use posture.
- Cross-border terrorism from Pakistan-based groups (e.g., Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed) has been a recurring feature of India-Pakistan tensions, including the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2016 Uri attack, 2019 Pulwama attack, and the April 2025 Pahalgam attack.
The former CDS's framing directly maps onto the "stability-instability paradox," explaining why India has shifted toward calibrated conventional retaliation (surgical strikes 2016, Balakot 2019, Operation Sindoor 2025) as a deterrent response to sub-conventional provocations, without crossing into full-scale war.
Operation Sindoor (2025): India's Calibrated Retaliation Doctrine
Operation Sindoor was India's military response to the 22 April 2025 Pahalgam terror attack, in which 26 civilians were killed. It involved precision strikes on terrorist infrastructure inside Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir, marking a new benchmark in India's declared doctrine of holding state-linked terror infrastructure directly accountable.
Key Details
- Strikes were conducted on the night of 6-7 May 2025, hitting nine identified terror launchpads/camps.
- A bilateral understanding to halt military action (ceasefire) was reached on 10 May 2025 after an exchange of aerial and missile strikes.
- Operation Sindoor followed the precedents of the 2016 "surgical strikes" (post-Uri) and the 2019 Balakot air strike (post-Pulwama), each escalating the scale of India's cross-border response.
The former CDS cited Operation Sindoor as demonstrating India's deterrence capability against Pakistan-based terrorism, reinforcing his broader point that cross-border terrorism, not just conventional military threat, is the primary and enduring dimension of the Pakistan challenge.
The Mecca (Saudi Arabia-Pakistan-Turkiye) Joint Defence Agreement
This is a mutual defence pact under which an attack on one signatory is treated as an attack on all, structurally resembling collective-defence arrangements such as NATO's Article 5. It builds on an earlier bilateral Saudi Arabia-Pakistan mutual defence agreement signed in September 2025, with Turkiye joining to form a trilateral framework signed in Mecca on 7 August 2026.
Key Details
- The trilateral pact was signed on 7 August 2026, expanding an earlier September 2025 Saudi-Pakistan mutual defence agreement.
- Pakistan is the only nuclear-armed state among the three signatories, raising questions in strategic commentary about whether the pact implicitly extends a nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia.
- The agreement emerged against the backdrop of regional security anxieties following direct Israel-Iran and US-Iran confrontations in West Asia through 2026.
The former CDS's concern is that such an external security guarantee could embolden Pakistan to take greater risks in its India policy (sub-conventional operations) while calculating that a wider regional backing reduces the cost of miscalculation, an assessment India factors into its own deterrence and diplomatic responses.
- Operation Sindoor (6-7 May 2025) struck nine terror sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir following the 22 April 2025 Pahalgam attack; a ceasefire followed on 10 May 2025.
- The Saudi Arabia-Pakistan-Turkiye Joint Defence Agreement was signed in Mecca on 7 August 2026, building on a bilateral Saudi-Pakistan pact from September 2025.
- India's nuclear doctrine (2003) is based on No First Use and credible minimum deterrence; Pakistan maintains no such no-first-use commitment.
- The former CDS identified three broad categories of external threat to India: unresolved borders, cross-border terrorism/non-state actors, and space-cyber-maritime domain competition.