India-Russia FTA talks with EAEU reach advanced stage, says Russian Deputy PM Manturov
Negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement between India and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) were described as having reached an advanced stage
The proposed agreement is expected to expand Indian access to the Eurasian region's energy and mineral resources
Bilateral trade between India and Russia has grown sharply in recent years, with both countries reaffirming a target of $100 billion by 2030
Connectivity initiatives, including the Arctic Northern Sea Route, are being explored to support the expanded trade relationship
Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)
The EAEU is a regional economic union established by the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union, which entered into force on 1 January 2015. It creates a single market for goods, services, capital, and labour among its members, coordinating trade, customs, and macroeconomic policy.
Key Details
- Members: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan (5 members)
- Existing EAEU FTAs: Vietnam (signed 2015, in force 2016 — the EAEU's first FTA), Iran (a limited-scope interim agreement, signed 2018, in force 2019), and Serbia
- India and the EAEU signed the Terms of Reference (ToR) to formally launch FTA negotiations on 20 August 2025 in Moscow
- India-EAEU trade turnover was around $69 billion in 2024, up about 7% over 2023, though this is overwhelmingly driven by Russia (the dominant EAEU economy)
The "advanced stage" of talks refers to the negotiation phase that formally began after the August 2025 Terms of Reference signing; India would become one of a small number of major economies with an EAEU-wide FTA, alongside Vietnam.
India-Russia Bilateral Trade and the $100 Billion by 2030 Target
India and Russia have set a target of $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030, alongside a complementary goal of $50 billion in mutual investment. Trade has grown rapidly since 2022, driven overwhelmingly by discounted Russian crude oil purchases following Western sanctions on Russia.
Key Details
- Bilateral trade in 2024-25: approximately $68.7 billion, up roughly five-fold from about $13.1 billion in 2021-22
- The relationship remains heavily lopsided: India's imports from Russia (2024-25) were around $63.8 billion (crude oil alone accounting for roughly $50 billion), against exports of only about $4.9-5 billion, leaving a large trade deficit
- The $100 billion target was reaffirmed during recent high-level India-Russia engagements, including discussions around the President of Russia's visit to New Delhi in December 2025
An EAEU-wide FTA is partly aimed at correcting the trade imbalance by improving Indian goods' access to Russia and other EAEU markets (mineral and energy resources), rather than trade growth continuing to be driven almost entirely by crude oil imports.
Northern Sea Route and Comparison with INSTC
The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is an Arctic shipping route along Russia's northern coastline connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, offering a shorter alternative to traditional routes via the Suez Canal for Europe-Asia trade. India and Russia are exploring integrating the NSR with existing connectivity frameworks to diversify trade routes amid Western sanctions pressure on conventional corridors.
Key Details
- The NSR runs roughly 3,500 nautical miles; it can cut the distance between Northern Europe and the Indo-Pacific by up to 40% compared to the Suez Canal route
- This is distinct from the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a roughly 7,200 km multi-modal corridor connecting India to Russia via Iran and Central Asia, in operation conceptually since 2000 and involving Chabahar port as a key node
- The INSTC can cut transit time from St. Petersburg to Mumbai to about 25 days (versus roughly 40 days via the traditional Suez route) and reduce costs by around 30%
- India and Russia are discussing integrating the NSR and INSTC into a combined multi-modal trade architecture
Northern Sea Route connectivity is being discussed alongside the EAEU FTA because improved logistics are necessary to make expanded trade in energy and minerals commercially viable, and to reduce dependence on routes vulnerable to sanctions-related disruption.
- EAEU members: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan (5)
- EAEU established: Treaty in force 1 January 2015
- India-EAEU FTA Terms of Reference signed: 20 August 2025, Moscow
- India-EAEU trade turnover (2024): ~$69 billion (up ~7% year-on-year)
- India-Russia bilateral trade (2024-25): ~$68.7 billion (~5x growth from ~$13.1 billion in 2021-22)
- India-Russia trade target: $100 billion by 2030; investment target: $50 billion by 2030
- Northern Sea Route: ~3,500 nautical miles; can cut Europe-Indo-Pacific distance by up to ~40%
- INSTC: ~7,200 km multi-modal corridor; can cut St. Petersburg-Mumbai transit to ~25 days versus ~40 days via Suez