U.S. to tell partners they must pick sides in AI race with China
A draft letter prepared by the U.S. State Department is set to be sent to the 35 signatories of the "AI Opportunity Statement," a joint statement on artificial intelligence cooperation signed in June 2026 at the second Pax Silica Summit.
The letter is intended to warn signatory countries that they must choose between aligning their AI ecosystems with the U.S.-led Pax Silica framework or China's competing World AI Cooperation Organization (WAICO), stating that a country cannot credibly be part of both.
The move follows concern in Washington after Kazakhstan became the only country so far to join both the Pax Silica-aligned coalition and WAICO, which China launched in July 2026 with founding members largely from the Global South.
The initiative reflects a broader U.S. strategy of restricting AI technology, chip and critical-mineral cooperation to partners who exclusively align their AI supply chains with the U.S. bloc, aiming to limit China's access to advanced AI resources and partners.
Strategic Technology Blocs and Export Control Regimes
Advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors and critical minerals have become central to geopolitical competition, with countries increasingly building exclusive technology "blocs" backed by investment access, chip supply agreements and shared governance standards, rather than relying purely on multilateral frameworks. This mirrors the logic of earlier strategic technology control regimes such as the Wassenaar Arrangement (conventional arms and dual-use goods) and the more recent U.S. semiconductor export controls on China (from October 2022 onward), which similarly required partner countries and companies to align their export policies with U.S. restrictions.
Key Details
- The Wassenaar Arrangement (1996) is a multilateral export-control regime for conventional arms and dual-use goods and technologies, of which India became a member in December 2017.
- U.S. semiconductor export controls targeting China's advanced-chip and chip-making-equipment access have been progressively tightened since October 2022, requiring allied chip-toolmaking nations (Netherlands, Japan) to align their own export rules.
- "Bloc"-based technology alignment (as opposed to universal multilateral governance) is a defining feature of the current AI and semiconductor era, contrasted with earlier eras of relatively open global technology diffusion.
The Pax Silica/WAICO split is the AI-era extension of this same "aligned bloc" logic — Washington is using an opportunity/access letter, rather than a formal treaty, to enforce exclusivity among the 35 signatories of the AI Opportunity Statement.
Critical and Emerging Technologies (CET) Cooperation — India's Position
India has pursued "multi-alignment" in critical and emerging technology partnerships, engaging simultaneously with U.S.-led frameworks (such as the India-U.S. initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology, iCET, launched in January 2023) while maintaining its own AI governance approach and technology relationships with other blocs. India is listed among the signatories of the U.S. "AI Opportunity Statement," making the question of exclusivity directly relevant to India's technology diplomacy.
Key Details
- iCET (initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology) was launched by India and the U.S. in January 2023, covering AI, semiconductors, space, defence and quantum technologies.
- India is a signatory to the AI Opportunity Statement signed at the second Pax Silica Summit in Washington, D.C. in June 2026.
- India has historically avoided binding, exclusive alignment in strategic technology and defence partnerships, preferring strategic autonomy — a stance that could be tested if Washington's ultimatum extends to signatories like India.
As one of the roughly three dozen signatories of the AI Opportunity Statement, India would be among the countries directly addressed by the State Department's letter, creating a potential tension between India's Pax Silica engagement and its independent, non-exclusive approach to technology partnerships (including any engagement with China-led platforms).
Artificial Intelligence Governance: Competing Global Frameworks
Beyond bilateral or bloc-based deals, global AI governance is also being shaped by multilateral processes such as the UN's efforts (including the Global Digital Compact, adopted in September 2024, and a UN General Assembly resolution on AI governance), as well as summit-based processes like the AI Safety/Action Summits (Bletchley Park 2023, Seoul 2024, Paris 2025). The emergence of two explicitly competing blocs — Pax Silica (U.S.-led) and WAICO (China-led) — signals a shift from consensus-based multilateral AI governance toward bloc-based technology alignment.
Key Details
- Pax Silica was launched by the U.S. in late 2025 as a coalition focused on securing AI supply chains and promoting shared, pro-innovation AI governance standards among partner economies.
- WAICO (World AI Cooperation Organization) was unveiled by China in Shanghai in July 2026, with close to 30 founding members, positioned as an inclusive AI governance body for the Global South.
- The UN Global Digital Compact (adopted September 2024) and the UN resolution on "safe, secure and trustworthy" AI (adopted March 2024) represent the multilateral track that bloc-based initiatives like Pax Silica and WAICO now compete with.
The State Department's ultimatum to the 35 AI Opportunity Statement signatories is a concrete instance of bloc-based AI governance overtaking multilateral consensus-building, a trend directly testable under global governance and S&T current affairs.
- The draft letter is addressed to 35 signatories of the U.S. "AI Opportunity Statement," signed in June 2026 at the second Pax Silica Summit in Washington, D.C.
- The competing China-led framework, WAICO (World AI Cooperation Organization), was launched in Shanghai in July 2026 with close to 30 founding members.
- Kazakhstan is currently the only country to have joined both the Pax Silica-aligned coalition and WAICO.
- India is among the signatories of the AI Opportunity Statement, alongside countries including Japan, South Korea, Australia, the UAE, Germany and the UK.