India must strengthen shipping capacity, naval protection amid growing chokepoints: GTRI
The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) assessed that India must treat maritime insecurity as a long-term trade risk as the Red Sea shipping crisis crosses 1,000 days
Vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Red Sea have raised freight, insurance, and working-capital costs on India-Europe and India-US trade lanes
MSME exporters, operating on thin margins, have been identified as particularly hurt by the longer routes and higher logistics costs
GTRI recommended India build up shipping capacity and naval protection capability to manage recurring chokepoint disruptions
The Red Sea Crisis and the Bab-el-Mandeb Chokepoint
The crisis began on 19 November 2023, when Yemen's Houthi movement seized the commercial vessel Galaxy Leader, followed by a sustained campaign of missile and drone attacks on merchant shipping transiting the Red Sea near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, in response to the Israel-Hamas conflict. This forced major shipping lines to divert around the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly 3,000-4,000 nautical miles and 10-14 days to Asia-Europe voyages.
Key Details
- The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, between Djibouti/Eritrea and Yemen, links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and onward to the Indian Ocean; it is one of the world's key oil and containerised-trade "chokepoints"
- The disruption has been estimated to push shipping costs up by as much as 60% and marine insurance premiums by up to 20% on affected routes; peak freight-rate spikes of 200-400% were recorded on some India-Europe/US legs
- A multinational naval campaign (2025), described as Operation Rough Rider, was launched to counter Houthi attacks and secure the corridor
- Sectors most exposed for India include textiles, garments, engineering goods, chemicals, leather, carpets, rice, spices, grapes, and marine products
The Red Sea remains the primary case study for how a single regional chokepoint disruption cascades into elevated costs for India's MSME export base, which is the basis of GTRI's call for structural (not just crisis-response) measures.
Maritime Chokepoints and Indian Naval Presence — Operation Sankalp
India's dependence on a small number of narrow maritime passages (Bab-el-Mandeb, the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca, the Suez Canal) for the bulk of its energy imports and containerised trade is addressed operationally through the Indian Navy's standing deployment, Operation Sankalp.
Key Details
- Operation Sankalp was launched on 19 June 2019 to ensure the safe passage of Indian-flagged and Indian-interest merchant vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Gulf of Aden
- Under the mission, the Navy has maintained a rotational presence of frigates and destroyers (including Kolkata-class stealth destroyers) and deployed maritime patrol assets such as MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones
- Since India's counter-piracy patrols began in 2008, the Navy reports having escorted several hundred merchant vessels and conducted hundreds of boarding operations in the wider Indian Ocean Region
- Around 95% of India's overseas trade by volume moves by sea, but roughly 90-94% of that cargo travels on foreign-flagged vessels — meaning India has limited direct control over the ships carrying its own trade
GTRI's call for "naval protection" builds directly on the existing Operation Sankalp framework, while its call for "shipping capacity" targets the low share of India-flagged tonnage in India's own seaborne trade.
Building Indian-Flagged Shipping Capacity — Maritime India Vision 2030 and Amrit Kaal Vision 2047
Registration and regulation of Indian-flagged vessels falls under merchant shipping law, while the government's stated capacity-building roadmap is set out in Maritime India Vision (MIV) 2030 and the longer-horizon Maritime Amrit Kaal Vision (MAKV) 2047.
Key Details
- Vessel registration under the Indian flag was governed by Part V of the Merchant Shipping Act, 1958 (administered by the Directorate General of Shipping); this framework has since been replaced by the Merchant Shipping Act, 2025
- MIV 2030 targets include scaling port capacity toward roughly 3,500 MMTPA and improving Indian shipbuilding/shipping tonnage, backed by a projected ₹3-3.5 lakh crore investment across roughly 150 initiatives
- MAKV 2047 extends this with an approximately ₹80 lakh crore investment ambition, a port-capacity target of around 10,000 MTPA, and a shipbuilding capacity-addition target of 4.5 million gross tonnage
- India currently ranks well outside the global top 15 in dead-weight tonnage (around 1-1.25% of world tonnage), despite being among the largest generators of seaborne trade volume
GTRI's "shipping capacity" recommendation maps onto the tonnage and shipbuilding targets already articulated in MIV 2030/MAKV 2047; the Red Sea disruption is cited as evidence of why India's low share of self-owned tonnage is a strategic, not just commercial, vulnerability.
- Red Sea crisis duration referenced: over 1,000 days (started 19 November 2023)
- Potential shipping-cost increase: up to 60%; insurance premium increase: up to 20%
- Peak freight-rate spike on some India-Europe/US routes: 200-400%
- Operation Sankalp launch date: 19 June 2019
- Share of India's overseas trade by volume moved by sea: approximately 95%
- Share of that cargo carried on foreign-flagged (non-Indian) vessels: approximately 90-94%
- MIV 2030 port-capacity target: approximately 3,500 MMTPA; MAKV 2047 target: approximately 10,000 MTPA