A new security triangle emerges with the Makkah Pact
Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (MJDA), under which an armed attack on any one signatory is to be treated as an attack on all three.
The pact builds on the bilateral Saudi Arabia-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement of September 2025, extending a comparable mutual-defence commitment to Türkiye.
The agreement follows months of regional instability, including the 2026 Iran war that began in late February and a renewed Houthi-Saudi confrontation in Yemen that has intensified through mid-2026.
Analysis of the pact frames it as the emergence of a new regional "security triangle," with implications for existing India-led connectivity and security initiatives in the Gulf and West Asia.
The "Security Triangle" Framing — Comparing Regional Groupings
A security or strategic "triangle" describes a three-way alignment of states around shared defence or strategic interests, a recurring pattern in regional geopolitics that is useful to compare across regions when analysing new groupings such as the MJDA.
Key Details
- Other examples of trilateral or minilateral security-adjacent groupings relevant to India's neighbourhood include the Quad (India, US, Japan, Australia — a quadrilateral, not strictly a triangle, formed 2007, revived 2017) and I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, US — also called the "Middle East Quad" or "Western Quad," launched October 2021), which is geoeconomic rather than security-focused.
- Unlike the Quad or I2U2, which include India as a member, the Makkah triangle (Saudi Arabia-Türkiye-Pakistan) does not include India, and links a nuclear-armed neighbour (Pakistan) with two states — Türkiye and Saudi Arabia — with which India has significant but distinct bilateral relationships.
- The MJDA's "attack on one is an attack on all" clause is modelled on NATO's Article 5 (North Atlantic Treaty, 1949), though it lacks NATO's standing joint command structure.
Framing the MJDA as a "triangle" invites direct comparison with India's own trilateral and quadrilateral groupings (Quad, I2U2), highlighting that India is simultaneously part of similar minilateral security/economic arrangements elsewhere in its extended neighbourhood, even as it remains outside this new West Asian one.
India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) — A Competing Connectivity Stake
IMEC is India's flagship connectivity initiative through the same Gulf region now covered by the new security triangle, making the MJDA relevant to assessing risk to India's own strategic investments there.
Key Details
- IMEC was announced via a Memorandum of Understanding at the G20 Summit in New Delhi on 9 September 2023, with India, the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, France, Germany, Italy and the European Union as signatories.
- It comprises an Eastern Corridor (India to the Gulf) and a Northern Corridor (Gulf to Europe via Israel and Jordan), covering transport, energy and digital connectivity pillars.
- IMEC is widely viewed as India's and partners' answer to China's Belt and Road Initiative, emphasising transparent, debt-free infrastructure financing.
Since IMEC's Eastern Corridor depends on stable transit through Saudi Arabia and the wider Gulf, any escalation linked to the new Saudi-Türkiye-Pakistan security triangle — or the Yemen conflict driving it — carries indirect risk to the corridor's long-term viability, a factor analysts weigh when assessing the pact's implications for India.
The Yemen Conflict and Red Sea Shipping Security — The Backdrop Driving the Pact
The renewed Houthi-Saudi confrontation and the wider 2026 Iran war are the immediate security drivers behind the MJDA, and both have already drawn a significant Indian naval response independent of this pact.
Key Details
- Houthi forces, backed by Iran, have escalated attacks on Saudi-backed forces and Saudi territory through 2026, reigniting a conflict that had been under an uneasy truce since 2022.
- India's Operation Sankalp, the Indian Navy's deployment for safeguarding Indian-flagged and merchant shipping in the Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea and wider Red Sea-adjacent waters, has grown into one of the Navy's largest sustained deployments amid repeated Houthi threats to shipping.
- Saudi Arabia has separately sought to build a multi-country coalition to protect Red Sea shipping from Houthi attacks, reflecting the scale of the maritime security challenge in the region.
The same Yemen conflict and Houthi threat driving Saudi Arabia toward the Makkah pact is also the reason the Indian Navy has committed substantial assets to regional maritime security under Operation Sankalp, meaning India already has an independent operational stake in the stability of the waters the new security triangle is meant to address.
- Makkah Joint Defence Agreement signed: 7 August 2026, in Makkah, Saudi Arabia, by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan.
- Builds on the Saudi Arabia-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement of September 2025.
- IMEC announced 9 September 2023 at the G20 New Delhi Summit; signatories include India, US, Saudi Arabia, UAE, France, Germany, Italy and the EU.
- I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, US) launched October 2021 as a geoeconomic, not security, grouping.
- Operation Sankalp: Indian Navy's large-scale deployment (reported at over 5,000 personnel and 20-plus ships) safeguarding shipping in the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea amid Houthi threats.