Iran's demands over the Strait of Hormuz would set a dangerous precedent, Rubio tells Asian leaders
The US Secretary of State told counterparts at a regional ministerial meeting in Manila that Iran's demand to control transit through the Strait of Hormuz, including the power to charge tolls, would set a dangerous precedent
The remarks were made at the opening of an annual gathering of Southeast Asian foreign ministers, attended by top diplomats from the United States, China, Russia, Australia, India, Japan and other countries
The meeting took place against the backdrop of the ongoing Iran conflict, which has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since early 2026
The precedent argument was framed explicitly in regional terms — allowing one state to control an international waterway and toll or attack non-compliant vessels was described as a template that could repeat itself in Asia's own contested waters
Southeast Asian economies flagged their own exposure, given the region's heavy dependence on energy shipments that transit the Strait of Hormuz
ASEAN Regional Forum and East Asia Summit — Institutional Venues for the Meeting
The gathering in Manila is part of the annual cycle of ASEAN-centred ministerial meetings that bring extra-regional powers into dialogue with Southeast Asian states on political and security issues, distinct from ASEAN's own internal summits.
Key Details
- The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) was established in 1994 as the primary official venue for security dialogue in the Asia-Pacific, with 27 participants including ASEAN's ten members, the US, China, Russia, India, Japan and the EU
- The East Asia Summit (EAS) was created in 2005 as a leaders-level forum; it now has 19 members — the 11 ASEAN Member States plus Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Russia and the United States (US joined in 2011)
- India is a founding member of the EAS and participates in the ARF; both forums are pillars of India's Act East Policy
- These forums are dialogue and confidence-building platforms, not treaty-based collective security arrangements — they issue joint statements and chair's statements rather than binding decisions
The US used the ARF/EAS ministerial cycle — a platform where China, Russia and Southeast Asian states are all present — to publicly frame the Hormuz standoff as a precedent-setting issue for the wider Indo-Pacific, rather than raising it only in a bilateral or Middle East-specific forum.
Freedom of Navigation and the Law of Straits Used for International Navigation
The right invoked in the Hormuz dispute is transit passage under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which governs how vessels may move through straits connecting two areas of high seas or exclusive economic zones.
Key Details
- Part III of UNCLOS (1982), Articles 34-45, establishes the regime for "Straits Used for International Navigation"; Articles 37-38 grant all ships and aircraft the right of transit passage through such straits without requiring prior authorisation from the bordering state
- Article 34 clarifies that the transit passage regime does not otherwise affect the sovereignty of the states bordering the strait over the waters, seabed and airspace
- Comparable strategic straits governed by the same legal regime include the Strait of Malacca (India-Southeast Asia sea link) and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (Red Sea-Gulf of Aden)
- India has consistently supported freedom of navigation and overflight in accordance with UNCLOS, including in the South China Sea, without itself being a claimant state in that dispute
The "dangerous precedent" argument rests on the claim that Iran's unilateral tolling and transit-approval regime departs from the UNCLOS transit passage framework — a legal principle India has also invoked regarding the South China Sea, where several ASEAN states have overlapping claims with China.
India's Energy Security — LPG Import Dependence via Hormuz
While India has diversified crude oil sourcing away from the Persian Gulf in recent years, its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supply chain remains heavily concentrated on Hormuz-transiting routes, making the strait a distinct vulnerability from crude alone.
Key Details
- India now sources roughly 70% of its crude oil imports from routes outside the Strait of Hormuz, following diversification toward Russia, the US and West Africa
- LPG import dependence is markedly different: India imports about 60% of its LPG consumption, and roughly 90% of those LPG imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, chiefly from Gulf suppliers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar
- LPG is the primary cooking fuel under the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY, launched 2016), which extended subsidised LPG connections to lower-income households, making disruption a domestic welfare-delivery concern and not only an industrial one
- India's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, administered by Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Limited (ISPRL) under the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, does not hold dedicated LPG reserves, unlike its crude oil caverns
Even as India's crude exposure to Hormuz has declined, the precedent Iran is accused of setting matters directly for India's LPG supply chain, which remains far more concentrated on the strait than crude oil sourcing.
- ASEAN Regional Forum established: 1994; East Asia Summit established: 2005 (India a founding member)
- UNCLOS transit passage regime: Part III, Articles 34-45 (adopted 1982)
- India's crude oil imports routed outside Strait of Hormuz: approximately 70% (2026)
- Share of India's LPG imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz: approximately 90%
- India's overall LPG import dependence: approximately 60% of domestic consumption
- Meeting location and context: Manila, Philippines, ASEAN-centred ministerial cycle, July 2026