Expert Explains: Why Indo-Pacific powers, including India, should worry about China’s new ballistic missile test
China conducted a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test into the Pacific Ocean, its first such test into international waters.
The missile's flight path passed near the northern coastline of the Philippines' main island before splashing down in the Pacific, in waters covered by a regional nuclear-free-zone treaty.
Several Pacific and Indo-Pacific nations publicly registered concern, calling the test destabilising to the region.
The test is being read by regional analysts as a signal of expanding Chinese undersea nuclear-deterrence capability with direct implications for other Indo-Pacific powers, including India.
Treaty of Rarotonga (South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty, 1985)
The Treaty of Rarotonga establishes the South Pacific as a nuclear-weapon-free zone, prohibiting the manufacture, testing, stationing or use of nuclear explosive devices within the zone by parties and, through its protocols, by external nuclear-weapon states.
Key Details
- The treaty was opened for signature in 1985 and entered into force in 1986.
- It has three protocols: Protocol 1 binds states with territories in the zone (France, UK, US); Protocols 2 and 3 bind nuclear-weapon states generally not to use or threaten nuclear weapons against zone parties and not to test nuclear devices within the zone.
- China signed and ratified Protocols 2 and 3 (signed 1987, ratified 1988); Russia has also ratified Protocols 2 and 3; France and the UK have ratified all three protocols; the US has signed but not ratified any protocol.
Firing a missile into or through waters covered by this treaty zone raised questions about consistency with China's Protocol 2/3 commitments not to threaten the use of nuclear weapons within the zone, driving the diplomatic pushback from regional states.
China's JL-3 Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile and Undersea Deterrence
The JL-3 is China's third-generation, solid-fuelled, submarine-launched intercontinental-range ballistic missile, carried aboard its Type 094 (and future Type 096) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), forming the sea-based leg of China's nuclear triad.
Key Details
- Estimated range: over 10,000 km, sufficient to threaten targets in the continental United States from Chinese littoral or near-shore waters without needing to sail into the open Pacific.
- Believed capable of carrying multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs).
- A test launched deep into the Pacific (rather than within China's typical closed test ranges) signals growing confidence in extended-range strike capability and a more assertive posture for China's sea-based deterrent.
The test's significance for Indo-Pacific powers lies less in the immediate target and more in the demonstrated reach and operational maturity of China's undersea nuclear forces, which reshapes the regional deterrence balance that India, Japan, Australia and others must factor into their own defence planning.
India's Nuclear Doctrine — No First Use and Credible Minimum Deterrence, and India's SLBM Programme
India's nuclear doctrine, articulated after the 1998 Pokhran-II tests and formalised in 2003, rests on "No First Use" (nuclear weapons will only be used in retaliation for a nuclear attack on India or Indian forces) and "credible minimum deterrence," underpinned by a developing sea-based second-strike capability.
Key Details
- India's sea-based deterrent rests on Arihant-class SSBNs armed with the K-15 (roughly 750 km range) and K-4 SLBMs (roughly 3,500 km range); the K-4 was test-fired from the commissioned SSBN INS Arighaat.
- India's land-based Agni-V missile (over 5,000 km range) achieved MIRV capability in a 2024 test, placing India among a small group of states with demonstrated MIRV technology.
- Unlike China's expanding, non-NFU-constrained undersea deterrent posture, India's doctrine explicitly commits to no first use, meaning India's SLBM development is framed as assured second-strike capability rather than first-strike advantage.
China's demonstrated long-range SLBM reach into the open Pacific highlights the asymmetry in maturity between China's and India's sea-based deterrents, reinforcing the strategic rationale behind India's own SSBN and SLBM modernisation programme.
- Treaty of Rarotonga: opened for signature 1985, entered into force 1986; China ratified Protocols 2 and 3 in 1988.
- China's JL-3 SLBM: estimated range over 10,000 km; first flight-tested in 2018; carried aboard Type 094/096 SSBNs.
- India's K-4 SLBM: approximately 3,500 km range, launched from Arihant-class submarines including INS Arighaat.
- India's Agni-V: over 5,000 km range; achieved MIRV capability in a March 2024 test.
- India's nuclear doctrine (2003): built on No First Use and credible minimum deterrence.