Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missiles could potentially target U.S.: Tulsi Gabbard
US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard, presenting the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment to the Senate Intelligence Committee, warned that Pakistan's long-range ballistic missile programme could evolve into intercontinental-range systems capable of striking the US homeland.
The assessment states: "Pakistan continues to develop increasingly sophisticated missile technology... and if these trends continue, ICBMs that would threaten the US."
Gabbard also warned that North Korea's ICBMs can already reach US soil and that Pyongyang is committed to expanding its nuclear arsenal.
The broader threat assessment noted that total missile threats to the US homeland will expand to over 16,000 missiles by 2035, up from the current 3,000+.
The statement is significant because it represents a formal US intelligence assessment treating Pakistan — a nominally allied state — as a potential strategic threat.
Pakistan's Ballistic Missile Programme — Key Platforms
Pakistan's missile programme is managed by the National Defence Complex (NDC) and the Strategic Plans Division (SPD). It covers both nuclear-capable short-range, medium-range, and developing long-range platforms. The primary concern flagged by US intelligence is the trajectory from medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) like Shaheen-III and MIRV-capable Ababeel toward future intercontinental range.
- Shaheen-III (Hatf-6): Land-based MRBM; range 2,750 km; nuclear-capable; solid-fuel; first tested March 9, 2015; capable of striking all of India and reaching parts of the Middle East. 18× speed of sound.
- Ababeel: Three-stage, solid-fuel MRBM; range 2,200 km; first tested January 24, 2017; Pakistan's first MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle) capable missile. Designed specifically to defeat Indian Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) systems. Length: 21.5 m; diameter: 1.7 m.
- MIRV capability: Allows one missile to carry multiple warheads aimed at separate targets — drastically complicating missile defence and enabling potential saturation attacks.
Key Details
- Pakistan's nuclear warheads: Estimated 170+ (as per SIPRI); fourth-largest nuclear arsenal among declared/undeclared states
- Delivery triad: Land-based missiles (primary), sea-based (Babur-3 SLCM on submarines), air-based (F-16, Mirage with nuclear delivery capability)
- Strategic Plans Division (SPD): Civilian-military body that manages Pakistan's nuclear weapons
- Shaheen-III range significance: At 2,750 km, it can cover Andaman & Nicobar Islands — India's strategic outpost
Gabbard's assessment signals that Pakistan's long-range ambitions are no longer viewed solely through the India-Pakistan prism — they now enter the US-Pakistan strategic calculus, which could reshape American pressure on Islamabad's missile programme.
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime — NPT, CTBT, MTCR
Three key treaties/regimes govern global nuclear and missile proliferation:
NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, 1970): Recognises five Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) — US, Russia, UK, France, China (the "P-5"). All other signatories are Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS) obligated not to acquire nuclear weapons. India, Pakistan, and Israel have never signed the NPT. North Korea withdrew in 2003. India's position: the NPT is discriminatory, creating a two-tier system of "nuclear haves" and "have-nots."
CTBT (Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, 1996): Bans all nuclear test explosions. Has not entered into force because 8 Annex-2 states (including India, Pakistan, China, US) have not ratified it. India signed but walked out of negotiations before finalisation; it has conducted tests (Pokhran-I 1974, Pokhran-II 1998) and has not signed the CTBT. India's stated reason: the CTBT lacks a commitment to time-bound nuclear disarmament.
MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime, 1987): Informal, 35-member export control arrangement limiting transfer of missiles and UAVs capable of carrying 500 kg+ payload over 300+ km. India joined in 2016. Pakistan is not a member.
Key Details
- NPT: 191 signatories; non-signatories: India, Pakistan, Israel; North Korea withdrew 2003
- CTBT Annex-2 states not ratified: US, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, Iran, Egypt, North Korea
- India's nuclear tests: Pokhran-I (1974, "Smiling Buddha"), Pokhran-II (1998, "Operation Shakti")
- MTCR threshold: Missiles with payload ≥500 kg, range ≥300 km
- India also joined: Wassenaar Arrangement (2017), Australia Group (2018)
Both India and Pakistan are NPT/CTBT non-signatories operating outside the formal non-proliferation framework. Pakistan's continued missile development — including potential ICBM range — highlights the limitations of a regime that excludes South Asian nuclear powers.
India's Nuclear Doctrine and No-First-Use Policy
India's nuclear doctrine, articulated in 2003, is built on four pillars: No-First-Use (NFU) — India will not initiate a nuclear strike; Credible Minimum Deterrence — maintaining a survivable second-strike capability sufficient to inflict unacceptable damage; Massive Retaliation — any nuclear attack on India or Indian forces will be met with "massive retaliation to inflict unacceptable damage"; and Civilian Political Control — the Nuclear Command Authority (NCA) headed by the Prime Minister authorises any nuclear use. India maintains a nuclear triad: land-based (Agni series), sea-based (Arihant-class SSBNs with K-15/K-4 SLBMs), and air-based (Rafale, Mirage 2000).
Key Details
- NFU pledge: India will not use nuclear weapons first; however, NFU does not apply to biological/chemical weapons attacks
- Agni series: Agni-I (700 km) to Agni-V (5,000+ km, ICBM-range); Agni-V tested with MIRV capability in March 2024
- NCA: Two-tier — Political Council (PM chairs) and Executive Council (NSA chairs)
- Arihant SSBN: India's nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine — survivable second-strike leg
- India's warheads: ~180 (SIPRI estimate); smaller than Pakistan's ~170 but with longer-range systems
Pakistan's development of MIRV-capable missiles (Ababeel) directly threatens the credibility of India's BMD programme and its second-strike survivability calculus, making the US intelligence assessment relevant not just to Washington but to New Delhi's strategic planning.
- Tulsi Gabbard: US Director of National Intelligence (DNI); presented 2026 Annual Threat Assessment to Senate Intelligence Committee
- Pakistan's Shaheen-III: Range 2,750 km; nuclear-capable; solid-fuel MRBM; tested 2015
- Pakistan's Ababeel: Range 2,200 km; MIRV-capable; solid-fuel; tested 2017
- Global missile threat to US: 3,000+ currently; projected 16,000+ by 2035 (per 2026 assessment)
- Pakistan's nuclear warheads: ~170+ (SIPRI estimate)
- India's Agni-V: ICBM-range (~5,000+ km); MIRV-tested March 2024
- NPT non-signatories: India, Pakistan, Israel (North Korea withdrew 2003)
- CTBT: In force for signatories but not in legal force globally — 8 Annex-2 states haven't ratified
- India joined MTCR: 2016