From Sponsors to Adversaries: The Taliban's Fractured Relationship with Pakistan
Pakistan launched an airstrike on a drug rehabilitation centre in Kabul on March 16, 2026, which the Taliban government says killed over 400 people (the UN recorded 143 deaths; Pakistan denies targeting the facility).
Pakistan's Defence Minister described the situation as "open war" with Afghanistan — a dramatic shift from 2021, when Pakistan was euphoric at the Taliban's return to power, viewing it as a strategic asset.
The strike is part of a broader Pakistan military campaign (Operation Ghazab Lil Haq) targeting Taliban positions in multiple Afghan provinces, including Kabul, Kandahar, Nangarhar, Khost, and Paktika.
At the heart of the breakdown: Pakistan accuses the Taliban government of sheltering Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — an armed group responsible for hundreds of attacks inside Pakistan — as well as Baloch separatists (Balochistan Liberation Army, BLA).
The Taliban denies harbouring TTP, while Pakistan's defence establishment insists TTP has between 6,000-6,500 fighters operating from Afghan soil per a 2024 UN report.
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP): Origins, Structure, and the Sanctuary Problem
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also called the Pakistani Taliban, was established in December 2007 as a coalition of hardline Sunni Islamist groups primarily from Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and tribal belt. It is ideologically aligned with but organisationally distinct from the Afghan Taliban — sharing a Pashtun ethnic base and Deobandi religious orientation.
The fundamental driver of the Pakistan-Taliban breakdown is Pakistan's inability to stop TTP attacks from Afghan soil — each major attack (Islamabad mosque bombing, February 2026; Bajaur checkpoint attack, February 2026) triggers Pakistani military retaliation into Afghanistan, deepening the cycle.
Pakistan's Strategic Miscalculation: From Taliban Sponsor to Adversary
Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has been widely documented as a long-term supporter of the Afghan Taliban, providing sanctuary, funding, and logistics during the 1990s Taliban government (1996-2001) and throughout the post-2001 insurgency against US-led NATO forces. Pakistan calculated that Taliban rule in Afghanistan would give it "strategic depth" — a friendly buffer state — and deny India a foothold in Kabul.
When the Taliban returned to power in August 2021 following the US withdrawal, Pakistan's establishment was broadly supportive. However, the Taliban government proved unable or unwilling to rein in TTP, which dramatically escalated attacks inside Pakistan after 2021. The relationship has since followed a trajectory from cautious optimism to open military confrontation by early 2026.
Key Details
- Afghan Taliban first government: 1996-2001; recognised only by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and UAE.
- US withdrawal from Afghanistan: completed August 31, 2021; Taliban entered Kabul on August 15.
- Pakistan's "Doha Process" expectations: Islamabad hoped the Doha Agreement (February 2020, between US and Taliban) would lead to a Taliban government that would suppress TTP.
- Key turning point: October 2025 — Pakistan launched "Operation Khyber Storm" airstrikes in Kabul, Khost, Jalalabad, and Paktika; Afghan Taliban retaliated with cross-border attacks.
- October 2025 ceasefire: fragile; broken by February 2026 attacks and the March 2026 campaign.
- Afghan Taliban doctrine: "Afghanistan soil will not be used against any country" (stated in Doha Agreement) — in practice, not enforced against TTP.
The Kabul drug rehab centre airstrike is not an isolated incident — it is the latest escalation in a two-year military confrontation that has fundamentally inverted Pakistan's strategic calculation about the Taliban.
The Durand Line: An Unresolved Border at the Heart of the Conflict
The Durand Line is the 2,670 km boundary between Pakistan and Afghanistan, established by a 1893 agreement between British India (Sir Henry Mortimer Durand) and the Afghan Emir Abdur Rahman Khan. Afghanistan has never formally accepted the Durand Line as the permanent international border, viewing it as a colonial imposition that divided the Pashtun people. Every Afghan government — communist, mujahideen, Taliban (both first and second administrations) — has refused to recognise it as a permanent border.
The Pakistan-Taliban military confrontation is not merely about TTP — it is an expression of the century-old Durand Line dispute and Pashtun nationalism, which prevents any government in Kabul from fully cooperating with Islamabad on border security matters.
- Kabul drug rehab centre airstrike: March 16, 2026; Taliban says 400+ killed; UN records 143 deaths; Pakistan denies targeting civilians.
- Pakistan's Operation Ghazab Lil Haq: ongoing military campaign targeting Taliban positions in 6 Afghan provinces.
- Afghan Taliban returned to power: August 15, 2021, following US withdrawal.
- TTP estimated strength: 6,000-6,500 fighters in Afghanistan (2024 UN report).
- TTP established: December 2007; current leader: Noor Wali Mehsud.
- APS Peshawar massacre (December 16, 2014): 132 children killed — Pakistan's worst terrorist attack.
- Operation Khyber Storm (October 2025): earlier Pakistani airstrikes in Kabul; Taliban retaliated.
- Durand Line: 2,670 km border; established November 12, 1893; Afghanistan has never formally recognised it.
- Pakistan's 2026 terrorist attacks (pre-escalation): BLA attacks (Balochistan, Jan-Feb 2026), Islamabad mosque bombing (Feb 6, 2026, 36 killed), TTP attack (Bajaur, Feb 16, 2026, 11 soldiers killed).