West Asia Conflict Will Have Deeper Impact on India Than Anticipated
Analysts and former officials assessed that the West Asia conflict will have a significantly larger impact on India than the government initially anticipated, forcing New Delhi to navigate complex and competing regional dynamics simultaneously.
India faces simultaneous pressure on multiple fronts: energy security (oil and gas imports), diaspora safety (~1 crore workers in Gulf), trade routes (Strait of Hormuz closure), remittances, and diplomatic positioning between the US-Israel axis and its Iranian and Gulf Arab partners.
India's "multi-vector West Asia policy" — carefully maintained relationships with Israel, Iran, Gulf Arab states, and the US — has been severely tested by the conflict.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), announced as a flagship connectivity initiative at the G20 India 2023 summit, has been rendered operationally non-viable by the war.
New Delhi's high-profile engagement with Israel (PM Modi's visit in February 2026) and its reluctance to condemn US-Israeli strikes have damaged India's credibility as a neutral interlocutor in West Asia.
Tehran has signalled scepticism about the value of India's neutrality given its expanding defence ties with Israel.
India's West Asia Policy: Multi-Vector Engagement
India's approach to West Asia (the Middle East) has evolved from a historically pro-Arab, non-aligned position in the Cold War era to a carefully calibrated multi-vector engagement policy that simultaneously maintains strong ties with Iran, the Gulf Arab states, Israel, and the United States. This approach reflects India's pragmatic recognition that its interests in the region are multidimensional.
The war forced India to choose between its multi-vector posture and its immediate national interests (energy, diaspora, defence supply chain). New Delhi's relative silence on condemning US-Israeli strikes, despite its publicly stated neutrality, reflects a de-facto tilt that damages its credibility with Iran and Arab partners.
India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)
IMEC was announced at the G20 New Delhi Summit in September 2023 as a major connectivity initiative connecting India to Europe via the Arabian Peninsula and the Mediterranean. It was positioned as a counter-narrative to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and as a US-backed alternative maritime and rail corridor.
IMEC's operational suspension illustrates how regional conflict can rapidly neutralise geopolitical infrastructure investments. India's strategic objective of developing alternative connectivity routes has been set back significantly.
Chabahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)
The Chabahar Port in southeastern Iran is India's most significant infrastructure investment in the region, providing access to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Russia without traversing Pakistan. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is a multi-modal transport network connecting India to Russia and Europe via Iran.
The Iran war puts Chabahar — India's most strategic regional infrastructure investment — at direct physical and diplomatic risk, potentially eliminating a key pillar of India's Central Asia and Eurasia connectivity strategy.
- ~1 crore Indian nationals in GCC countries; >$100 billion annual remittances.
- India imports ~49-55% of its crude oil from West Asia; ~70% of gas imports from the region.
- ~40-50% of India's crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
- IMEC announced September 9, 2023 (G20 New Delhi); MoU signatories: India, US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, EU.
- India-Iran Chabahar Port: 10-year operational contract signed May 2024; operated by India Ports Global Limited.
- INSTC: reduces India-Russia transit time from ~40 days (Suez) to ~18-20 days; multi-modal route via Iran.
- India established full diplomatic relations with Israel in January 1992.
- India-Israel defence trade: Israel is among India's top 3 defence suppliers.
- India's February 28 statement called for "restraint, dialogue, diplomacy, and respect for sovereignty of all states."