India’s merchandise imports from Russia plunge over 40% in January as crude purchases slump
India's merchandise imports from Russia fell 40.48% to $2.86 billion in January 2026, down from $4.81 billion in January 2025.
Petroleum crude, which typically accounts for roughly 80% of India's total imports from Russia, drove the decline — Russian crude imports for January hovered around $2.3 billion.
Reliance Industries Ltd (refining capacity: 68 million tonnes per annum) announced on January 9 that it expected zero Russian crude deliveries for the month.
The US had imposed 25% punitive tariffs on Indian merchandise exports in August 2025 specifically as a penalty for continuing Russian crude purchases.
On February 6, 2026, the US withdrew these punitive tariffs after India "committed to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil."
India is now expected to pivot toward US and Venezuelan energy as alternative suppliers, with President Trump confirming India would resume large-scale purchases from Venezuela.
India's Crude Oil Import Diversification Strategy
India's heavy dependence on imported crude oil (approximately 89% of consumption) makes source diversification a critical component of energy security strategy, particularly amid shifting geopolitical alignments.
Key Details
- India's crude oil import dependence: approximately 89% (March 2025), making it the world's third-largest oil importer.
- Pre-2022 pattern: India primarily sourced crude from the Middle East — Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait — with Russia supplying less than 2%.
- Post-2022 shift: After Western sanctions on Russia following the Ukraine invasion, Indian refiners significantly increased Russian crude purchases, with Russia's share surging to 18-22% by 2025.
- India's crude oil imports were worth approximately $155 billion in FY 2024-25.
- Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR): India has 5.33 MMT capacity across Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru, and Padur — roughly 9.5 days of import cover (IEA recommends 90 days).
- Economic Survey 2025-26 noted India has widened its crude oil import base, with rising purchases from Libya, Egypt, Brazil, US, and Brunei.
- India consumed approximately 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025.
The dramatic 40% import decline from Russia reflects how geopolitical pressure — specifically US tariff penalties — has reshaped India's energy sourcing calculus, overriding the price advantages that made Russian crude attractive to Indian refiners since 2022.
India-Russia Strategic Partnership in the Context of Changing Geopolitics
India-Russia relations have historically been characterised by deep defence, energy, and diplomatic ties, but the Russia-Ukraine conflict and US pressure are testing the relationship.
Key Details
- India-Russia bilateral ties upgraded to a Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership in 2010.
- Russia is India's largest defence equipment supplier, accounting for approximately 36% of India's arms imports (down from 62% a decade earlier, per SIPRI).
- Key defence platforms from Russia: S-400 missile systems, Sukhoi Su-30MKI, BrahMos missile (JV), INS Vikramaditya aircraft carrier, AK-203 assault rifles (JV at Amethi).
- India-Russia bilateral trade reached approximately $66 billion in FY 2023-24, driven overwhelmingly by crude oil imports.
- India has maintained a neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, abstaining from most UN votes condemning Russia.
- CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, 2017): US law that allows secondary sanctions on entities dealing with Russia's defence sector — India received an informal waiver for the S-400 purchase.
The precipitous drop in Russian crude imports — from India's largest crude supplier to near-zero in January 2026 — marks a significant shift in India's traditional strategic autonomy, with US economic leverage (tariffs) proving more decisive than diplomatic pressure in reshaping India's energy trade patterns.
Global Oil Market Dynamics and OPEC+
The global crude oil market is shaped by the interplay between OPEC+ production decisions, US shale output, demand patterns in Asia, and geopolitical disruptions, all of which affect India's import bill.
Key Details
- OPEC+: An alliance of 23 oil-producing nations (13 OPEC members + 10 non-OPEC allies including Russia), coordinating production to manage global oil prices.
- OPEC was founded in 1960 in Baghdad by five founding members: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. Headquarters: Vienna, Austria.
- US shale revolution made the US the world's largest oil producer (approximately 13 million bpd in 2025).
- India's crude oil import bill is directly impacted by global prices — every $10/barrel increase in crude prices adds approximately $15 billion to India's import bill and widens the current account deficit.
- Petrodollar recycling links oil prices to India's forex reserves and currency stability.
- India has historically called for responsible pricing at OPEC forums, balancing producer and consumer interests.
India's pivot from Russian crude to US and Venezuelan supplies reshuffles the supply dynamics within the global oil market, potentially increasing India's exposure to OPEC+ production decisions while reducing its access to discounted Russian barrels.
- 40.48%: Decline in India's imports from Russia (January 2026 vs January 2025)
- $2.86 billion: India's imports from Russia in January 2026 (down from $4.81 billion)
- 80%: Share of crude oil in India's total imports from Russia
- 89%: India's crude oil import dependence (March 2025)
- 68 MTPA: Reliance Industries' refining capacity — announced zero Russian crude for January 2026
- 25% tariff: US punitive tariff on Indian goods (August 2025) — withdrawn February 6, 2026
- 5.33 MMT: India's Strategic Petroleum Reserve capacity
- $66 billion: India-Russia bilateral trade (FY 2023-24)
- 36%: Russia's share in India's arms imports (SIPRI data)
- 1960: Year OPEC was founded; Vienna: OPEC headquarters