Expiry of New START Treaty: End of Last US-Russia Nuclear Arms Control Agreement
The New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) between the United States and Russia expired on 5 February 2026, leaving no binding limits on the two largest nuclear arsenals for the first time in over 50 years
The treaty, signed in 2010 and extended in 2021 for five years, capped deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 per side and allowed 18 on-site inspections annually
The US administration has called for a new treaty framework that includes China alongside Russia, while Russia had suspended its participation in the treaty in February 2023
The expiry comes ahead of the 11th NPT Review Conference scheduled for April-May 2026, raising concerns about the credibility of nuclear disarmament commitments under NPT Article VI
New START Treaty (2010)
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty was signed on 8 April 2010 by the US and Russia in Prague. It replaced the earlier START I treaty (1991) and the Moscow Treaty (SORT, 2002). New START provided legally binding, verifiable limits on deployed strategic nuclear weapons and their delivery systems.
Key Details
- Limited each party to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads
- Limited deployed ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers to 700; deployed and non-deployed launchers to 800
- Provided for 18 on-site inspections per year (10 Type One + 8 Type Two) and biannual data exchanges
- Entered into force on 5 February 2011; extended in January 2021 for five years under the Biden administration
- Covered six types of delivery vehicles: land-based ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers
- Russia suspended participation in February 2023 amid the Ukraine conflict, though it stated it would continue to observe warhead limits
The treaty's expiry without a successor agreement removes the last legally binding constraint on US and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals, ending a verification and transparency regime that has operated continuously since the original START I entered into force in 1994.
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): Article VI
The NPT, opened for signature in 1968 and entering into force in 1970, is the cornerstone of the global non-proliferation regime. Article VI contains the only binding multilateral obligation requiring nuclear-weapon states to pursue negotiations in good faith toward nuclear disarmament.
The absence of any US-Russia arms control treaty undermines the Article VI commitment and risks deepening the divide between nuclear-weapon states and non-nuclear-weapon states at the upcoming 2026 Review Conference.
India's Nuclear Doctrine: Credible Minimum Deterrence and No First Use
India's nuclear doctrine, formalized through the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) review of January 2003, is based on the principles of credible minimum deterrence (CMD) and no first use (NFU). India is not a signatory to the NPT but maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing since 1998.
The collapse of bilateral arms control between the US and Russia, combined with China's expanding nuclear arsenal, directly impacts the strategic calculus in India's neighbourhood and could prompt a reassessment of what constitutes "credible minimum" deterrence.
- New START signed: 8 April 2010 (Prague); entered into force: 5 February 2011; expired: 5 February 2026
- Warhead limit: 1,550 deployed strategic warheads per side
- Delivery vehicle limits: 700 deployed; 800 deployed + non-deployed
- Global nuclear warheads (estimated 2025): ~12,100 total — Russia (~5,580), US (~5,044), China (~500), France (~290), UK (~225), India (~170), Pakistan (~170), Israel (~90), DPRK (~50)
- NPT 11th Review Conference: 27 April to 22 May 2026, New York
- India's position: not a signatory to NPT, CTBT, or any bilateral arms control treaty; advocates for universal disarmament