WMO Warns the 2026 El Niño Could Be the Strongest on Record: What It Means for India
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations body for weather and climate, has warned that the El Niño event now under way could be stronger than any seen before.
Sea surface temperatures (the temperature of the top layer of the ocean) in the tropical Pacific may rise to about 3.8°C above average during November 2026 to January 2027.
The WMO's October 2026 update forecast an October to December average of about +3.7°C in the key Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific. The earlier record was +2.6°C, set during November 2015 to January 2016.
The warming has grown fast: the Niño 3.4 reading rose from +1.6°C in June 2026 to +2.5°C in August 2026. The event is expected to peak around December 2026, and the WMO puts the chance of it lasting through February 2027 at nearly 100%.
The forecast is a consensus of 13 national and international forecasting centres. For October to December 2026, it points to drier-than-normal conditions over the Indian subcontinent and above-average temperatures over large parts of the world.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also active, expected to peak in October and then weaken. August 2026 was the hottest August on Earth on record.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
ENSO is a natural climate swing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Every few years, the central and eastern Pacific becomes unusually warm (El Niño) or unusually cool (La Niña), and the winds and air pressure above the ocean change along with it. Because the Pacific is so large, this swing changes rain and temperature patterns across the whole world, including India's monsoon.
The WMO says the current El Niño is "firmly established and strengthening rapidly". Its forecast anomaly is far above the 2015-16 record, so this event could become the strongest since records began. For India, this raises the risk of a warm, dry winter and pressure on crops and water.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
The World Meteorological Organization, or WMO, is the United Nations body for weather, climate and water. It helps countries share weather data, sets common standards for measuring weather, and issues global outlooks such as the El Niño updates. Its headquarters is in Geneva, Switzerland.
The warning about a possibly record El Niño came from WMO's seasonal update, which combined forecasts from 13 centres. WMO shares these outlooks with national weather services and UN humanitarian partners so that countries can prepare early for droughts, floods and heatwaves.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
The Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, is a swing in sea surface temperature between the western and eastern parts of the tropical Indian Ocean. In a positive IOD, the western side (near Africa and the Arabian Sea) is warmer than normal and the eastern side (near Indonesia) is cooler. In a negative IOD, the pattern is reversed. The IOD can strengthen or weaken the effects of El Niño on India.
A positive IOD is running at the same time as the strong El Niño. But because the IOD is expected to fade after October, its helpful effect on India may weaken just as El Niño reaches its peak in December.
- Forecast tropical Pacific sea surface temperature: up to about 3.8°C above average during November 2026 to January 2027
- WMO forecast for Niño 3.4, October to December 2026: about +3.7°C; previous record +2.6°C (November 2015 to January 2016)
- Niño 3.4 anomaly: +1.6°C (June 2026) to +2.5°C (August 2026)
- Expected peak: December 2026; near-100% chance of lasting through February 2027
- Forecast is a consensus of 13 national and international centres
- Positive IOD expected to peak in October 2026, anomaly about +0.5°C for October to December
- August 2026: hottest August on record globally
- WMO: HQ Geneva; 193 Members; Convention in force 23 March 1950; UN specialised agency since 1951