Record Pacific Heat Builds a Very Strong El Niño for 2026-27: What It Means for India
The El Niño that started in 2026 is growing very fast because of record heat in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Forecasts say it may become the strongest El Niño since modern instrument records began.
Until now, only three El Niño events counted as "very strong": 2015-16, 1997-98 and 1982-83. At their peak, their three-month average temperature anomaly (how much warmer the sea was than normal) was 2.6°C, 2.4°C and 2.1°C.
Some model projections show the 2026-27 El Niño peaking with an anomaly of more than 4°C. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts an October to December 2026 average of about +3.7°C in the key Niño 3.4 region, with a likely peak around December.
The Niño 3.4 anomaly rose from +1.6°C in June 2026 to +2.5°C in August 2026. August 2026 was the hottest month ever recorded on Earth, according to Copernicus, NOAA and NASA.
For October to December 2026, the WMO outlook points to drier than normal conditions over the Indian subcontinent. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to peak in October and then weaken.
The warming effect of this El Niño is likely to carry into 2027, raising fears of new global heat records, crop losses and marine heatwaves.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a natural climate swing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Every few years, the sea surface in the central and eastern Pacific becomes unusually warm (El Niño) or unusually cool (La Niña). At the same time, air pressure and winds over the ocean also change, which is the "Southern Oscillation" part. Because the Pacific is so large, these changes shift rain and heat patterns across the whole world, including India's monsoon.
The 2026-27 event's monthly anomaly already crossed the "very strong" mark of 2°C by August 2026, and the event may beat the 2015-16 record of 2.6°C by a wide margin. A record El Niño means higher chances of dry spells over India, global heat records in 2027, and stress on crops, water and power supply.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
The Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, is a swing in sea surface temperature between the western and eastern parts of the tropical Indian Ocean. In a positive IOD, the western Indian Ocean (near Africa and the Arabian Sea) becomes warmer than normal and the eastern part (near Indonesia) becomes cooler. In a negative IOD, the opposite happens. It is sometimes called the "Indian Niño" because it works a bit like ENSO, but in the Indian Ocean.
The WMO expects a positive IOD to peak in October 2026, with an October to December anomaly of about +0.5°C, and then decline. As it fades, the strong El Niño will have more room to shape rainfall, which is why forecasts show drier than normal conditions over the Indian subcontinent for the rest of 2026.
- Very strong El Niño events on record: 1982-83 (2.1°C), 1997-98 (2.4°C), 2015-16 (2.6°C)
- 2026-27 El Niño: some projections show a peak anomaly above 4°C; WMO forecast for October to December 2026 is about +3.7°C
- Niño 3.4 anomaly: +1.6°C (June 2026) to +2.5°C (August 2026)
- Niño 3.4 region: 5°N to 5°S, 120°W to 170°W
- El Niño threshold: ONI at or above +0.5°C for five overlapping three-month seasons; very strong at 2.0°C or more
- August 2026: hottest month on record (Copernicus, NOAA, NASA)
- Positive IOD expected to peak in October 2026; October to December anomaly about +0.5°C
- IOD thresholds: DMI above +0.4°C (positive), below −0.4°C (negative)
- WMO outlook for October to December 2026: drier than normal over the Indian subcontinent