WMO Says the 2026 El Niño Could Reach Record Strength: What It Means for India
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations body for weather and climate, released its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update on 8 October 2026.
It forecasts that the sea surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean will reach record warmth in October to December 2026. The El Niño event now under way is expected to peak around December 2026.
The key measure, the Niño 3.4 index (how much warmer than normal one patch of the Pacific is), is forecast to average about +3.7°C for October to December. The earlier record was +2.6°C, set in November 2015 to January 2016. The index had already risen from +1.6°C in June 2026 to +2.5°C in August 2026.
The WMO puts the chance that El Niño will continue through February 2027 at nearly 100%. Its Secretary-General said the event could be one of the strongest since at least 1950.
In the Indian Ocean, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has formed. It is expected to peak in October and then weaken. A positive IOD often helps Indian rainfall, so it may partly soften El Niño's drying effect on India.
The forecast combines inputs from 13 national and international forecasting centres. The WMO expects above-normal temperatures over most land areas and changed rainfall patterns, raising the risk of both drought and floods in different regions.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a natural climate "swing" in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Every few years, the sea surface in the central and eastern Pacific becomes unusually warm (this is El Niño) or unusually cool (this is La Niña). At the same time, the air pressure and winds above the ocean also change. Because the ocean and the air change together, scientists treat them as one system and call it ENSO. It is the single biggest cause of year-to-year changes in weather around the world, including India's monsoon.
The WMO now expects the Niño 3.4 index to average about +3.7°C in October to December 2026, far above the "very strong" mark of 2.0°C and the 2015–16 record of 2.6°C. This means the Bjerknes feedback has pushed the Pacific into an extreme El Niño state that is likely to last into early 2027. For India, it raises the risk of heat, water stress and pressure on food prices in the coming months.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
The Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, is a swing in sea surface temperature between the western and eastern parts of the tropical Indian Ocean. In a positive IOD, the western Indian Ocean (near Africa and the Arabian Sea) becomes warmer than normal and the eastern part (near Indonesia) becomes cooler. In a negative IOD, the pattern flips. "Dipole" simply means "two poles", here the two ends of the ocean that move in opposite directions. Because it works a bit like El Niño but in our own ocean, it is sometimes called the "Indian Niño".
The WMO says a positive IOD has formed alongside the record El Niño and should peak in October before weakening. That gives India some help at the end of the season, because a positive IOD tends to offset part of El Niño's drying effect. But as the IOD fades by the end of the year, El Niño's influence is likely to dominate.
- WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update released on 8 October 2026; based on 13 forecasting centres
- Niño 3.4 forecast for October–December 2026: about +3.7°C; previous record +2.6°C (November 2015–January 2016)
- Niño 3.4 rose from +1.6°C (June 2026) to +2.5°C (August 2026)
- El Niño peak expected around December 2026; nearly 100% chance it lasts through February 2027
- Positive IOD expected to peak in October 2026 and then decline
- NOAA "very strong" El Niño threshold: 2.0°C or more
- WMO: UN specialised agency headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland