Weak start to monsoon seen clouding Kharif season outlook: Report
India's southwest monsoon 2026 has begun with a significant rainfall deficit — IMD has cut its June–September projection to 90% of the Long Period Average (L...
What Happened
- India's southwest monsoon 2026 has begun with a significant rainfall deficit — IMD has cut its June–September projection to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a 60% probability of a deficient season overall.
- El Niño conditions were officially confirmed by IMD on June 12, 2026; models project the phenomenon will strengthen between July and September — the critical peak months for monsoon delivery.
- The monsoon made a sluggish landfall in Kerala on June 4, running three days behind its normal baseline date (June 1).
- Kharif sowing has been adversely impacted, particularly for pulses, oilseeds, and cotton; core rainfed agricultural zones in Northwest, West, and Central India face the highest deficit risks.
- India's 166 major reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission (CWC) held just 28.28% of total live storage capacity as of mid-June 2026 — though 15.8% above the normal level for this time of year, storage is 8.17% lower than the same period last year.
- Approximately 60% of India's farmers depend entirely on monsoon rainfall for the kharif cropping season; a prolonged dry spell could raise food prices and strain rural economies.
- Experts emphasise the July–August period as crucial; the northeast region is expected to receive normal rainfall while the deficit concentrates in the agricultural heartland.
Static Topic Bridges
Southwest Monsoon: Mechanics and Economic Significance
The Southwest Monsoon (June–September) is the dominant rainfall event in India, delivering approximately 70–75% of the country's annual precipitation. It is driven by the differential heating of land and ocean: the Indian landmass heats rapidly in summer, creating a low-pressure system that draws moist air from the Indian Ocean. The monsoon advances in two branches — the Arabian Sea branch (reaching Kerala first) and the Bay of Bengal branch (advancing along the northeast).
- IMD declares monsoon onset over Kerala when at least 60% of 14 specified stations record ≥2.5 mm of rainfall for two consecutive days, with westerly winds at 925 hPa and OLR values below threshold — the normal onset date is June 1.
- The Long Period Average (LPA) for seasonal rainfall is approximately 868.6 mm (1961–2010 base period); "normal" is defined as 96–104% of LPA; below 90% is "deficient."
- El Niño (warm phase of ENSO — El Niño Southern Oscillation) suppresses Indian monsoon rainfall by altering atmospheric circulation patterns (Walker Circulation) over the equatorial Pacific; it is associated with 5 of India's last 6 major drought years.
- The June–September monsoon contributes directly to kharif crop output and recharges reservoirs that sustain the subsequent rabi season and drinking water supply.
Connection to this news: The 2026 season features a below-normal onset, confirmed El Niño, and a 60% probability of deficient rainfall — a combination that historically correlates with reduced kharif output, higher food inflation, and fiscal stress in rural economies.
Kharif Crops and India's Agricultural Calendar
India's agricultural year is divided into two main cropping seasons: kharif (sown June–July, harvested October–November, dependent on monsoon rainfall) and rabi (sown November–December, harvested April–May, reliant on winter rains and irrigation). A third zaid season exists for summer vegetables and fruits.
- Major kharif crops: rice, maize, bajra (pearl millet), jowar (sorghum), soybean, groundnut, cotton, sugarcane, arhar/tur (pigeon pea), urad (black gram), moong (green gram).
- Pulses and oilseeds are almost entirely rain-fed kharif crops — any deficit disproportionately hits production and domestic prices of edible oils and protein sources.
- Cotton is a major kharif cash crop concentrated in Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Telangana — rainfall deficit in these states directly impacts export earnings and textile sector input costs.
- MSP (Minimum Support Price) for kharif crops is announced before sowing season by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) based on CACP recommendations.
Connection to this news: The article specifically identifies pulses and cotton as the most impacted kharif crops in the early sowing phase, consistent with the geographic concentration of the rainfall deficit in Northwest and Central India.
IMD Forecasting and the Cauvery/Reservoir System
India's weather forecasting infrastructure is managed by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), established in 1875 and now under the Ministry of Earth Sciences. IMD issues two-stage long-range forecasts for the monsoon — in April (first stage) and June (updated forecast) — using statistical and dynamical models.
- CWC (Central Water Commission), under the Ministry of Jal Shakti, monitors live storage in 166 major reservoirs and publishes weekly bulletins — these are a key policy input for irrigation water release decisions.
- As of June 2026, the 53 western region reservoirs held 31.13% of capacity; central region reservoirs held 35.09% — relatively better placed than the eastern and southern regions.
- Nine of 20 hydropower project reservoirs had water at or below normal levels, threatening power generation if weak monsoon storage persists.
- National Water Policy (2012) mandates integrated water resource management; the National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC) includes a National Water Mission as one of eight missions.
Connection to this news: Reservoir levels provide a partial buffer against early-season deficit — the article notes this explicitly — but prolonged shortfall through July–August would rapidly erode this buffer and trigger irrigation rationing.
Key Facts & Data
- IMD 2026 monsoon forecast: 90% of LPA (updated June 2026); 60% probability of deficient season.
- El Niño officially confirmed by IMD on June 12, 2026; expected to strengthen July–September.
- Southwest Monsoon onset over Kerala: June 4, 2026 (3 days behind normal June 1 date).
- India's 166 major reservoirs: 28.28% full as of mid-June 2026 (CWC data).
- ~60% of Indian farmers fully dependent on monsoon for kharif season.
- LPA for June–September rainfall: ~868.6 mm; "deficient" defined as below 90% of LPA.
- Major kharif crops at risk: pulses, oilseeds, cotton, coarse cereals.
- Northwest, West, and Central India identified as highest-risk zones for rainfall deficit.