Mint Explainer | What a strong El Nino could mean for India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced the onset of an El Niño event in June 2026, downgrading its seasonal rainfall forecast to approximately 9...

What Happened

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced the onset of an El Niño event in June 2026, downgrading its seasonal rainfall forecast to approximately 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), indicating a below-normal southwest monsoon (June–September).
The probability of a deficient monsoon season (rainfall below 90% of LPA) is estimated at 35% — more than double the climatological baseline probability of 16%.
The IMD projects India's 2026 monsoon season rainfall at around 800 mm, against the LPA of approximately 870 mm; the shortfall is expected to be concentrated in August and September when El Niño's moisture-suppressing circulation patterns become most entrenched.
About 60% of India's farmers depend on the southwest monsoon for the kharif season, and forecasts indicate that regions outside Ladakh, parts of Rajasthan, northeastern India, and northern Andhra Pradesh/Telangana will likely face deficit rainfall.
FAO issued a warning that El Niño conditions in 2026 would deepen the crisis in kharif crop production, particularly for paddy (rice) and maize — two major food security crops.

Static Topic Bridges

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Mechanism

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern. Under normal conditions, the Walker Circulation drives strong easterly trade winds that push warm surface water westward across the tropical Pacific, maintaining a warm pool near Australia/Indonesia and upwelling cool, nutrient-rich water off the South American coast. During an El Niño event, trade winds weaken or reverse; warm water spreads eastward into the central and eastern tropical Pacific (Niño 3.4 region). This disrupts the Walker Circulation and teleconnects global weather patterns, reducing moisture advection into the Indian subcontinent.

Concept first scientifically studied by Sir Gilbert Walker in the 1920s–30s (Walker Circulation named after him)
ENSO phases: El Niño (warm) → Neutral → La Niña (cool)
Measurement: Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) — 3-month running average of sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 120°–170°W)
El Niño threshold: ONI ≥ +0.5°C for 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods
Strong El Niño: ONI ≥ +1.5°C; Super/Extreme El Niño: ONI ≥ +2.0°C
La Niña (ONI ≤ −0.5°C) generally enhances India's monsoon
ENSO cycle period: typically 2–7 years
Key years of strong El Niño affecting India: 1982–83, 1987, 1997–98, 2015–16

Connection to this news: The 2026 El Niño event, with ONI values potentially approaching super-El Niño thresholds, is the primary atmospheric driver behind IMD's below-normal monsoon forecast.

Southwest Monsoon and India's Agricultural Dependence

India's southwest monsoon (June–September) delivers approximately 70–75% of the country's annual rainfall. It enters India through two branches: the Bay of Bengal branch (stronger; accounts for ~60–65% of total monsoon rainfall; feeds the Indo-Gangetic plains and Northeast) and the Arabian Sea branch (feeds the Western Ghats, Gujarat, Rajasthan). The monsoon underpins the kharif (summer crop) season, which includes rice, maize, cotton, soybean, groundnut, and pulses. The rabi (winter crop) season (wheat, mustard, gram) relies largely on stored soil moisture and reservoir levels built up during the monsoon.

Long Period Average (LPA) for all-India monsoon rainfall: ~868.6 mm (1971–2020 reference period, IMD)
Below-normal monsoon: <90% of LPA; Deficient: <90% for the season
IMD's seasonal forecast model: Statistical/dynamical ensemble including Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS)
~60% of cultivable area in India is rain-fed (no irrigation access)
Kharif sowing (June–July): IMD early-season rainfall data determines crop acreage decisions
Historical correlation: ~60% of El Niño years since 1950 associated with below-normal Indian monsoon; strong El Niño events show higher correlation with drought

Connection to this news: The 2026 below-normal monsoon forecast directly threatens kharif production, with paddy and maize most at risk per FAO warnings.

Food Security and Inflation Linkages

India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has a Food and Beverages weight of approximately 45.86% (base year 2012). Cereals (especially rice and wheat) and vegetables are the primary drivers of food inflation during drought years. El Niño-driven drought causes direct supply-side food price inflation, which disproportionately affects lower-income households. The National Food Security Act (NFSA), 2013, covers ~67% of India's population (approximately 813 million persons) under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY), providing 5 kg of food grain free per month per person, partially buffering against monsoon-driven price spikes.

NFSA 2013: guarantees subsidised/free food grains to 67% of population
PMGKAY: extended free food grains scheme covering approximately 813 million beneficiaries
CPI food weight: ~45.86% (makes food inflation highly visible in headline CPI)
Minimum Support Price (MSP): government procurement mechanism to protect farmers from price collapse during glut; does not protect against production failure in drought
2015–16 El Niño: Two consecutive drought years (2014, 2015) — reservoir levels fell to 26% of total capacity; food inflation spike followed
National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) drought guidelines: categorise drought as meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural

Connection to this news: Below-normal kharif output translates directly into rice and maize price pressures, with cascading effects on CPI food inflation and rural incomes — the economic dimension of the 2026 El Niño forecast.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Seasonal Forecasting

IMD was established in 1875 under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES). It is responsible for meteorological observation, weather forecasting, and climate monitoring across India. IMD issues a two-stage seasonal monsoon forecast: Stage 1 (April): long-range seasonal forecast; Stage 2 (May/June): updated forecast with probability distributions. The primary model used is the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS), supplemented by statistical models using predictors such as ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Eurasian snow cover.

IMD established: 1875; headquartered in New Delhi
Under Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)
Monsoon Mission: launched 2012 under National Monsoon Mission (NMM) to improve monsoon prediction
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): positive IOD generally suppresses El Niño's negative impact on monsoon; negative IOD amplifies drought risk
IMD LPA reference: 868.6 mm (1971–2020); earlier reference was 887 mm (1951–2000)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO): coordinates global ENSO monitoring; NOAA Climate Prediction Center publishes authoritative ONI values

Connection to this news: IMD's downgrade of the 2026 forecast to 90% of LPA and the elevated (35%) probability of deficiency are the institutional assessments driving agricultural and policy planning for the kharif season.

Key Facts & Data

El Niño definition: Warming of central-eastern tropical Pacific sea surface (Niño 3.4 region) by ≥0.5°C for 5+ consecutive seasons (ONI threshold)
Super El Niño threshold: ONI ≥ +2.0°C
Walker Circulation: Equatorial overturning cell; weakens during El Niño, reducing moisture advection to India
ENSO cycle period: 2–7 years
Historical correlation: ~60% of El Niño years since 1950 associated with below-normal Indian monsoon
2026 IMD forecast: ~90% of LPA (approximately 800 mm); below-normal
Probability of deficient season (2026): 35% (versus climatological baseline of 16%)
LPA (1971–2020): 868.6 mm
Southwest monsoon duration: June–September (4 months)
Monsoon's share of annual rainfall: 70–75%
Rain-fed agricultural area: ~60% of cultivable land in India
Farmers depending on monsoon: ~60% of farming households
Key kharif crops at risk: Paddy (rice), maize, cotton, soybean, groundnut
El Niño peak impact timing (2026): August–September (second half of season)
IMD established: 1875; under Ministry of Earth Sciences
NFSA 2013: Covers 67% of India's population (~813 million); mitigates consumer-side drought impact
CPI food weight: ~45.86% — drought-driven food price inflation feeds directly into headline CPI
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Positive IOD can partially offset El Niño's negative monsoon impact
Historical droughts linked to El Niño: 1987, 1997–98, 2002–03, 2009, 2014–15