WMO State of the Climate Update 2026: Why the UN Says the World Has Entered an "Age of Climate Extremes"
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations body for weather and climate, released its State of the Climate Update 2026 on 9 November 2026, the first day of the UN climate conference COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye.
The report says the global average surface temperature from January to September 2026 was about 1.47°C above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) average. Early data places 2026 among the four hottest years on record.
The period 2015–2026 is set to be the warmest 12-year stretch ever recorded. Ocean heat content (the total heat stored in the oceans) is heading for a tenth straight year of record highs, and the global mean sea level reached its highest point in the satellite record, which began in 1993.
The report warns that the El Niño that has grown stronger since August 2026 may reach record strength by December, raising the risk of extreme heat, drought and heavy rain well into 2027.
The UN Secretary-General said the world is entering an "age of climate extremes". He called for faster emission cuts, a fair and quicker shift away from fossil fuels (a "just transition"), and money and protection for vulnerable countries.
The WMO noted that countries with multi-hazard early warning systems rose from 55 in 2015 to 136 in 2025, and urged COP31 to invest more in weather observation and forecasting. The full State of the Global Climate 2026 report is due in March 2027.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations' specialised agency for weather, climate and water. It helps all countries share weather data freely and measure the weather in the same standard way, so that a forecast in India can use readings taken in the Pacific. Every year it publishes the official global check-up on climate, called the State of the Global Climate report, plus a shorter update before each COP.
The State of the Climate Update 2026 is one of WMO's flagship reports, timed to inform negotiators at COP31. Its figures (1.47°C warming so far in 2026, record ocean heat, record sea level) are the scientific base for the UN's "age of climate extremes" warning. Its call to fund observation and forecasting ties to WMO's core job of early warnings.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a natural climate swing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Every few years, the sea surface in the central and eastern Pacific becomes unusually warm (El Niño) or unusually cool (La Niña), and the winds and air pressure above the ocean change along with it. Because the Pacific is so large, this swing changes weather around the world, including India's monsoon. El Niño years also add extra heat to the already warming planet, so global temperature records often fall during or just after a strong El Niño.
The WMO warns that this El Niño will act as a "risk multiplier" on top of human-caused warming. That is why it expects more heatwaves, droughts and floods into 2027 and has asked countries to prepare for another possible record-breaking year.
Paris Agreement Temperature Goal and the 1.5°C Threshold
The Paris Agreement, adopted at COP21 in 2015, is the world's main climate treaty. Its central aim, in Article 2.1(a), is to keep the rise in the Earth's average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. These two numbers are the measuring stick for every climate report and every COP decision.
The WMO figure of about 1.47°C for January to September 2026 sits right at the Paris 1.5°C line. This is why the UN chief urged COP31 to "get serious" about faster emission cuts and a shift away from fossil fuels.
- Report: WMO State of the Climate Update 2026, released 9 November 2026 at the start of COP31, Antalya, Türkiye (talks run until 20 November 2026)
- Global average surface temperature, January–September 2026: about 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 average
- 2026: likely among the four hottest years on record; 2015–2026 set to be the warmest 12-year period on record
- Ocean heat content: on track for a tenth consecutive record year
- Global mean sea level: highest in the satellite record (since 1993)
- El Niño: intensifying since August 2026, may reach record strength by December 2026; extremes expected into 2027
- Countries with multi-hazard early warning systems: 55 (2015) → 136 (2025)
- Full State of the Global Climate 2026 report due: March 2027
- WMO: founded 23 March 1950 (World Meteorological Day), UN specialised agency since 1951, HQ Geneva, 193 members