WMO Warns the Current El Niño Could Be the Strongest on Record
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said the El Niño now under way in the Pacific Ocean could be unprecedented (never seen before) in strength.
Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific may rise to about 3.8°C above average during November 2026 to January 2027. The event is expected to peak around December 2026.
The strongest El Niño events in WMO's records reached about 3°C above average. A 3.8°C reading would go beyond the charts used for monitoring over the past four decades.
Earlier in October, WMO had forecast an anomaly (difference from normal) of about +3.7°C for October to December.
WMO warned of greater risks of heavy rain and floods in parts of East Africa, drier conditions in Southern Africa, heat and wildfire risk in Southeast Asia, and drought in parts of Central America and the Amazon. Hot global oceans are adding to the risk of above-normal temperatures around the world.
WMO has also forecast a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in 2026, which affects rainfall around the Indian Ocean.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a natural climate swing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Every few years, the central and eastern Pacific becomes unusually warm (El Niño) or unusually cool (La Niña), and the winds and air pressure above the ocean change with it. Because the Pacific is so large, these changes shift rainfall and temperature patterns across the world, including India's monsoon.
WMO's forecast of about 3.8°C above average would make this the strongest El Niño in modern records, well above the roughly 3°C peaks of 1997-98 and 2015-16. For India, the main concern is its effect on the winter of 2026-27 and on the next monsoon if warm conditions last into 2027.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
The Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, is a swing in sea surface temperature between the western and eastern parts of the tropical Indian Ocean. In a positive IOD, the western side (near Africa and the Arabian Sea) is warmer than normal and the eastern side (near Indonesia) is cooler. In a negative IOD, the pattern reverses. The IOD is often called the "Indian Niño" because it affects the Indian monsoon, sometimes working against the effect of El Niño.
WMO's warning of heavy rain and floods in East Africa during the October to December rains reflects both a strong El Niño and a positive IOD acting together. Students should remember that the Indian Ocean has its own climate swing, so El Niño alone does not decide India's rainfall.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
The World Meteorological Organization, or WMO, is the United Nations body for weather, climate and water. It helps countries share weather data, sets common standards for measuring the weather, and issues global reports on the state of the climate. Its headquarters is in Geneva, Switzerland. It is a specialised agency of the United Nations.
The warning about a possibly unprecedented El Niño came from WMO's regular El Niño and seasonal climate updates, which combine forecasts from leading weather centres around the world. Such early warnings are exactly what WMO exists for: to give governments months of notice to prepare for droughts, floods and heat.
- Forecast tropical Pacific sea surface temperature: up to about +3.8°C above average, November 2026 to January 2027
- Expected peak: around December 2026
- Strongest past El Niño events: about +3°C above average
- Earlier October 2026 WMO estimate: about +3.7°C for October to December
- El Niño threshold: +0.5°C; strong: 1.5°C or more; very strong: 2.0°C or more
- Past very strong events: 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16
- WMO also forecast a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in 2026
- Regional risks flagged: floods in East Africa, dryness in Southern Africa, heat and fires in Southeast Asia, drought in Central America and the Amazon