‘Super El Niño’ projected to cause 15,800 additional heat deaths in India, says report
A climate-economics research group projected that a strengthening El Nino event could cause approximately 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India between September 2026 and February 2027.
The projection is part of a broader global estimate of roughly 239,000 excess heat deaths worldwide over the same period, with Southeast Asian countries and Indonesia also flagged among the worst-affected regions.
The report attributes the excess mortality to global land temperatures pushed around 1.2°C above normal by the El Nino event, a level of warming comparable to what climate change is projected to deliver as the "new normal" within roughly two decades.
The report calls for expanded heat early-warning systems, targeted heat action plans for vulnerable populations, and improved water availability as measures that could avert a significant share of the projected deaths.
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its effect on India
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring, irregular climate pattern involving fluctuations in sea-surface temperature and air pressure across the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Its warm phase is called El Nino (abnormal warming of Pacific sea-surface temperatures); its cool phase is called La Nina. ENSO events typically last 9-12 months and recur every two to seven years, though their strength varies considerably from one event to the next.
Key Details
- El Nino conditions are generally associated with a weaker Indian summer monsoon, since anomalous Pacific warming disrupts the atmospheric circulation (the Walker circulation) that drives monsoon winds; several major Indian droughts since 1871, including 2002 and 2009, coincided with El Nino years.
- La Nina conditions typically strengthen the Indian monsoon through enhanced convection, the opposite effect of El Nino.
- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) classifies ENSO events by intensity as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong, based on sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region; "Super El Nino" is a popular/media descriptor for an unusually intense event and is not a formal WMO classification category.
The projected 15,800 additional heat deaths in India are attributed to this event's unusually strong warming signature, illustrating how an ocean-atmosphere phenomenon centred in the Pacific can translate into a domestic public health burden through elevated land temperatures.
India's institutional heat-wave response: NDMA and IMD frameworks
India's disaster-management response to extreme heat is anchored in guidelines issued by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), first published in 2016 and updated periodically, which direct states and cities to prepare Heat Action Plans (HAPs). The India Meteorological Department (IMD) separately issues the meteorological criteria that trigger a formal "heat wave" declaration and associated warnings (colour-coded alerts).
Key Details
- IMD declares a heat wave when the maximum temperature reaches at least 40°C in the plains (30°C in hilly regions) and departs from the normal by a defined margin: for stations with a normal maximum up to 40°C, a departure of 4.5-6.4°C is a "heat wave" and 6.5°C or more is a "severe heat wave"; irrespective of normal, an actual maximum of 45°C or higher is declared a heat wave outright.
- Heat Action Plans typically include an early-warning and inter-agency coordination system, public communication of alerts, adaptive measures (cooling shelters, adjusted work hours for outdoor labour), and targeted outreach (such as home visits) to vulnerable groups including the elderly, outdoor workers, and those without access to cooling.
- Ahmedabad's 2013 Heat Action Plan, developed after a deadly 2010 heat wave, is frequently cited as India's first city-level HAP and a template subsequently adapted by other states and cities under NDMA's national guidelines.
The report's recommendation for expanded early-warning systems and targeted heat action plans maps directly onto this existing NDMA-IMD institutional framework, which is the primary policy lever available to convert a global climate projection into localised mortality prevention.
Climate change, ENSO, and compound heat risk
Climate scientists distinguish between the long-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gas accumulation and the shorter-term, cyclical temperature swings driven by ENSO; the two combine additively, so an El Nino year superimposed on a warming baseline produces temperatures and heat-mortality risks higher than either factor would produce alone.
Key Details
- The report's framing that current El Nino-driven warming resembles the average global temperature conditions expected within about two decades due to climate change illustrates this compounding effect, using a natural climate cycle as a preview of the harm anticipated from sustained anthropogenic warming.
- India's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement (2015) include adaptation components relevant to heat resilience, alongside its emissions-intensity and non-fossil capacity targets.
- Heat is increasingly assessed by health researchers using combined temperature-humidity metrics (such as wet-bulb temperature), since high humidity reduces the human body's ability to cool itself through sweat evaporation, making a given temperature more dangerous in humid regions than in dry ones.
The excess-mortality estimate for India reflects this compound risk — an ENSO-driven temperature spike layered onto an already-warming climate baseline — which is why such projections are increasingly used to argue for accelerated adaptation investment rather than being treated as a one-off weather event.
- Projected additional heat deaths in India (September 2026-February 2027) due to the current El Nino: approximately 15,800.
- Projected global excess heat deaths over the same period: approximately 239,000.
- Other high-impact regions cited: Indonesia (~19,300 deaths), Philippines/Vietnam/Thailand/Cambodia combined (~19,400 deaths), Brazil (~13,300 deaths).
- Global land temperature anomaly attributed to the event: approximately 1.2°C above normal.
- IMD heat wave threshold: maximum temperature at least 40°C (plains) or 30°C (hills), with a defined departure from normal, or an outright maximum of 45°C or higher regardless of normal.
- India's national heat-wave policy framework: NDMA Guidelines for Preparation of Action Plan - Prevention and Management of Heat Wave, first issued 2016.