Over 180 scientists sign urgent appeal to tackle upcoming ‘super’ El Nino event
Over 180 scientists and ecologists in India have signed a joint appeal urging researchers and field practitioners to strengthen monitoring and research on how an anticipated "super" El Nino event could affect natural ecosystems and the social systems dependent on them.
The appeal warns of possible large-scale ecological disruption, including coral bleaching and mortality, increased wildfire risk, stress-related death of large rainforest trees, and subtler effects such as delayed fruiting and altered animal behaviour.
It flags heightened risk of drought and extreme heat, with potentially severe consequences for farmers, fishers, and pastoralist communities who depend directly on monsoon-linked natural systems.
International meteorological assessments cited in the appeal project that Pacific Ocean surface temperature anomalies could intensify significantly in the coming months, with the event persisting into early 2027.
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
ENSO is a recurring, irregular climate pattern involving fluctuations in ocean surface temperature and atmospheric pressure across the tropical Pacific Ocean. It has two opposite phases, El Nino (warm phase) and La Nina (cool phase), plus a coupled atmospheric component called the Southern Oscillation, which is the seesaw in surface air pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific.
The appeal is a direct response to forecasts of an intensifying El Nino event, since ENSO's warm phase is the specific climate driver scientists are asking India's ecological research community to prepare for and monitor.
El Nino's Impact on the Indian Summer Monsoon and Food Security
El Nino years are statistically associated with a higher probability of below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall in India, because the weakened Walker circulation over the Pacific disrupts the pressure gradients that drive monsoon winds toward the Indian subcontinent. However, this relationship is not absolute — other factors, especially the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), can offset or reinforce El Nino's effect.
Key Details
- Of the roughly 16 El Nino events since 1950, historical analysis attributes about 5 to extreme drought conditions in India, showing the correlation is strong but not deterministic.
- The 1997-98 El Nino, one of the strongest on record, did not cause an Indian drought because it coincided with a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which reinforced monsoon moisture from the west.
- The 2015-16 El Nino, by contrast, was associated with a severe drought and a measurable decline in India's foodgrain production.
- In the last several decades, only three "very strong" (super) El Nino events have been recorded globally: 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16; scientists are now warning of conditions consistent with a fourth such event.
The appeal's concern about agricultural and food-security risk stems from this established (though not automatic) link between strong El Nino years and monsoon deficits, which directly affects rain-fed agriculture and rural livelihoods in India.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — Distinguishing Feature from ENSO
The IOD is a separate, independent mode of ocean-atmosphere variability in the Indian Ocean (not the Pacific), defined by the sea-surface temperature difference between a western pole (Arabian Sea) and an eastern pole (near Indonesia/Sumatra). A positive IOD (warmer west, cooler east) tends to enhance monsoon rainfall over India, while a negative IOD tends to suppress it.
Understanding whether the anticipated "super" El Nino will coincide with a positive or negative IOD is central to assessing how severe its actual impact on India's monsoon, agriculture, and ecosystems will be, beyond the Pacific warming alone.
- Appeal signed by over 180 scientists and ecologists in India, urging expanded ecological monitoring and research ahead of an anticipated "super" El Nino.
- Only three "very strong"/super El Nino events recorded in the last several decades: 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.
- Reported Pacific sea-surface temperature anomaly: around 2.6°C above normal as of August, with projections of anomalies potentially exceeding 4°C, described as among the highest in roughly 1,000 years [Unverified — extreme historical comparison as cited in reporting].
- World Meteorological Organization assessments cited project the event intensifying into a "very strong" phase and persisting through around February 2027.
- Of roughly 16 El Nino events since 1950, about 5 are linked to extreme drought years in India; the 2015-16 El Nino was associated with an approximately 2.8% decline in India's foodgrain production compared with the prior year.