El Nino to persist through February 2027: What it means for India
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecast that the prevailing El Niño conditions could intensify into a very strong event and persist through February 2027
August 2026 recorded a 16% all-India rainfall deficit and was the hottest August in India since 1901
The India Meteorological Department's outlook for September 2026 projects rainfall below 91% of the Long Period Average
A persisting or strengthening El Niño raises the risk of weaker winter (Rabi) crop conditions, drought in some regions, and continued heat stress into the coming months
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
ENSO is a recurring climate pattern centred on periodic warming (El Niño) and cooling (La Niña) of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, coupled with a corresponding shift in atmospheric pressure between the western and eastern Pacific (the "Southern Oscillation"). It is the single largest driver of year-to-year climate variability worldwide, occurring in irregular cycles of roughly two to seven years, with El Niño, La Niña, and ENSO-neutral phases.
The WMO's forecast of a persisting/strengthening El Niño through February 2027 directly explains the current monsoon deficit and sets the backdrop for below-normal September rainfall and a potentially warmer winter, since El Niño's influence typically extends beyond the June–September monsoon into the following Rabi season.
Monsoon Forecasting Framework in India
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, issues seasonal monsoon forecasts using the Long Period Average (LPA) — the average all-India rainfall over a fixed 50-year reference period — as the benchmark against which "normal," "deficient," or "excess" rainfall is measured.
Key Details
- Current LPA reference period used by IMD: 1971–2020, corresponding to roughly 868.6 mm of all-India seasonal (June–September) rainfall
- IMD classifies seasonal rainfall as: Deficient (<90% of LPA), Below Normal (90–96%), Normal (96–104%), Above Normal (104–110%), Excess (>110%)
- IMD uses a two-stage forecast system (April and June updates) incorporating ENSO status, IOD, Eurasian snow cover, and Madden-Julian Oscillation as key predictors
- The Ministry of Earth Sciences monitors ENSO through monthly Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) model updates
The September 2026 forecast of below-91%-of-LPA rainfall places this month in the "deficient" category, consistent with the strengthening El Niño signal the WMO has flagged.
Agricultural and Economic Sensitivity to Monsoon Variability
India's agriculture remains substantially rain-fed (roughly 51% of net sown area lacks assured irrigation, per Ministry of Agriculture data), making monsoon performance a key determinant of Kharif output, rural incomes, and food inflation. A weak monsoon or an unusually warm winter can also affect Rabi crops such as wheat during critical reproductive and grain-filling stages.
Key Details
- Kharif crops (sown with monsoon onset, harvested Oct–Nov) include rice, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane; Rabi crops (sown post-monsoon, Oct–Dec; harvested Mar–Apr) include wheat, gram, mustard
- Minimum Support Price (MSP) is recommended by the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) and approved by the Union Cabinet, partly as a buffer against monsoon-driven price volatility
- Climate studies note that winter warming in northern India has been most rapid in February, which coincides with the grain-filling stage of wheat, raising yield-loss risk if an intensifying El Niño coincides with an already-warming winter trend
A monsoon deficit combined with a forecast of a strong, persisting El Niño into the Rabi season raises the standard UPSC-relevant chain of concern: rainfall deficit → reduced reservoir/groundwater recharge → Rabi sowing stress → potential food-inflation pressure, a linkage frequently tested in GS3 economy and agriculture questions.
- WMO forecast: El Niño to intensify into a very strong event and persist through February 2027
- All-India rainfall deficit, August 2026: 16%
- August 2026 was India's hottest August since 1901
- IMD September 2026 outlook: rainfall below 91% of the Long Period Average (1971–2020 base period)
- IMD rainfall classification: Deficient <90% of LPA; Normal 96–104% of LPA
- Approx. share of India's net sown area without assured irrigation: ~51%