These are the 111 districts the government flagged as vulnerable to El Niño 2026 — and 69 are already rainfall deficient
111 high-priority farm districts across India have been identified as most vulnerable during the 2026 El Nino-linked monsoon, each sharing irrigation coverage below 25 percent and heavy dependence on rainfall
Of these, 69 districts are already experiencing below-normal rainfall, with 12 districts falling into the "large deficient" category, defined as a rainfall shortfall exceeding 60 percent
Kharif sowing as of 10 July 2026 covered 53.13 million hectares, a 16 percent (10.14 million hectare) shortfall compared to 63.27 million hectares sown by the same date in 2025
The India Drought Monitor reports that 30.7 percent of India's total geographical area is under drought conditions, with Manipur the worst-affected state at 98.1 percent area coverage
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Monsoon
El Nino refers to the periodic warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, part of the broader El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. It is historically associated with weakened and delayed southwest monsoon rainfall over India, since it alters the pressure gradient that drives moisture-laden winds toward the subcontinent.
Key Details
- Southwest monsoon (June-September) contributes about 70-75 percent of India's annual rainfall and is critical for kharif (summer) crop sowing
- Historical data shows a statistical association between El Nino years and drought years in India — including notable El Nino-linked droughts such as those in 2002, 2009, and 2015-16
- ENSO has two counterparts: El Nino (warming, generally monsoon-weakening) and La Nina (cooling, generally monsoon-strengthening); a neutral phase is also possible
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) monitors Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies and issues seasonal monsoon forecasts factoring in ENSO status
The 2026 vulnerability assessment of 111 districts is a direct operational response to an El Nino-linked monsoon deficit, translating the climatological ENSO signal into a district-level, irrigation-adjusted risk map for agriculture.
Drought Classification and Declaration Framework
India's drought management follows a manual-based framework: state governments are the final authority to declare a drought, but must demonstrate severity across a set threshold of impact indicators (covering rainfall, agriculture, hydrology, and remote-sensing-based indices) before a drought is classified and central financial assistance is considered.
Key Details
- For a drought to be classified as "severe" and become eligible for central assistance, the state government must establish severity in a majority of the prescribed impact indicator categories
- The National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC), headed by the Cabinet Secretary, functions as the apex body coordinating disaster response, including drought-linked crises, at the national level
- Rainfall deficiency itself is categorised in slabs — e.g., "deficient" and "large deficient" — based on the percentage shortfall from the Long Period Average (LPA) for a given district and period
- Irrigation coverage is a key vulnerability multiplier: districts with less than 25 percent irrigated area (as used in this 111-district list) have little buffer against rainfall failure compared to well-irrigated regions
The 12 districts already in the "large deficient" category (over 60 percent rainfall shortfall) are the ones most likely to trigger the formal state-level drought declaration process if the deficit persists through the kharif season.
Kharif Cropping Cycle and Sowing Data as a Policy Indicator
Kharif crops (rice, pulses like tur and moong, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane) are sown at the start of the southwest monsoon (June-July) and harvested in autumn (September-October), making timely and adequate monsoon rainfall essential for sowing windows.
Key Details
- The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare tracks weekly kharif sowing progress against the previous year as a real-time proxy for monsoon performance and food security risk
- A sowing shortfall in July (the peak sowing window) is difficult to fully recover even if rainfall improves later, since delayed sowing compresses the crop's growing period before winter
- Rice and pulses are especially sensitive to sowing delays because they are transplanted or require standing water/soil moisture at establishment
- The Minimum Support Price (MSP) and procurement mechanisms (via the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs, on Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices recommendations) are the standard post-harvest instruments used to cushion farmer income in a deficit year
The 16 percent year-on-year shortfall in kharif sowing area is the clearest early-warning economic indicator in this report, since it directly foreshadows potential impacts on crop output, rural incomes, and food inflation later in the year.
- 111 high-priority districts identified, all with irrigation coverage below 25 percent
- 69 of 111 districts already rainfall-deficient; 12 districts in "large deficient" category (over 60 percent shortfall)
- Kharif sowing (as of 10 July 2026): 53.13 million hectares vs. 63.27 million hectares in 2025 — a 16 percent (10.14 million hectare) decline
- Maharashtra has the most rainfall-deficient high-priority districts (10), followed by Chhattisgarh (9)
- States with all high-priority districts rainfall-deficient: Meghalaya, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Manipur, Mizoram, Puducherry
- 30.7 percent of India's total area under drought conditions per the India Drought Monitor; Manipur most affected at 98.1 percent area coverage
- Most extreme deficit reported: Longleng district, Nagaland — 0.2 mm rainfall since 1 June against a seasonal normal of 439.7 mm