El Niño to dent India’s wind, hydropower output: study
A study by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) warns that the transition from La Niña to El Niño between July 2026 and June 2027 could open a power generation shortfall of nearly 18 TWh in India.
Weaker monsoon winds are projected to reduce wind power generation by approximately 4.9 TWh, while lower river flows cut hydropower output by around 2.9 TWh.
Rising temperatures from El Niño-driven heat are expected to add roughly 10 TWh of additional electricity demand, primarily for air conditioning and cooling — equivalent to approximately a quarter of Delhi's annual consumption.
To bridge this combined supply-demand gap, the analysis projects India's fossil fuel generation could rise by 17.7 TWh, with the worst-case scenario reaching 24 TWh of additional coal burn — roughly half of India's entire increase in coal generation in the preceding year.
The additional coal use is estimated to produce around 17 million tonnes of additional CO₂ emissions.
Solar generation is modelled to remain largely stable, reinforcing its growing role as the weather-resilient anchor of India's energy transition.
ENSO and Its Influence on India's Hydrology and Wind Patterns
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the periodic warming (El Niño) and cooling (La Niña) of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It arises from a coupled interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere — when easterly trade winds weaken, the Walker Circulation flattens, warm water migrates eastward, and the moisture-laden winds that feed the Indian Summer Monsoon weaken. This has a cascading effect on Indian hydrology: below-normal monsoon rainfall reduces river discharge, lowering water levels in reservoirs that feed run-of-river and storage hydropower projects. Simultaneously, weaker pressure gradients during El Niño reduce wind speeds across peninsular India, directly suppressing output from wind turbines concentrated in states like Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Rajasthan.
Key Details
- El Niño years show a statistically significant negative correlation with Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), though variability is high; not every El Niño produces a drought.
- India's wind energy capacity is concentrated in the southern and western states; wind turbines typically operate at rated capacity only when wind speeds exceed 12–14 m/s.
- Hydropower provides a dispatchable, flexible source of generation — unlike solar and wind — making any shortfall harder to substitute without thermal backup.
- The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region are the primary indices used to monitor ENSO phase.
El Niño reduces both wind speeds and monsoon-fed river flows simultaneously — the two renewable sources most affected — explaining why the combined generation gap (7.8 TWh from supply loss + 10 TWh from demand rise) totals nearly 18 TWh.
India's Renewable Energy Transition and Its Structural Vulnerabilities
India's electricity generation mix has undergone rapid transformation. Renewables (solar, wind, hydropower, and others) accounted for approximately 40% of total installed capacity as of late 2024, when the renewable milestone of 200 GW was crossed. The government's target is 500 GW of non-fossil installed capacity by 2030 under the updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted at COP26 in Glasgow. However, the transition carries structural risks: variable renewable energy (VRE) — solar and wind — is weather-dependent and not dispatchable on demand. Coal-based thermal power, despite declining in relative share, remains the only large-scale, dispatchable fallback available at present scale.
Key Details
- India's 500 GW non-fossil target by 2030 translates into achieving 50% of total installed capacity from non-fossil sources — India's NDC pledge.
- The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) projects coal's share of installed capacity will decline to ~32% by 2030 from ~52% at present.
- Grid-scale Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and pumped-hydro storage are identified as essential for managing VRE intermittency; MNRE has announced viability gap funding (VGF) for BESS projects.
- India added approximately 41 GW of renewable energy in the first eleven months of 2025 — a record — and renewables accounted for 95% of all new capacity additions in FY 2025–26.
The CREA study reveals that despite rapid renewable build-out, India's grid is not yet buffered against weather-induced VRE shortfalls of the scale El Niño can cause. Without adequate battery storage or demand-response mechanisms, the default response remains increased coal dispatch.
Climate Variability, Energy Planning, and Long-Run Grid Resilience
Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of ENSO events, meaning extreme weather-driven disruptions to India's electricity grid — both supply-side (VRE fluctuations) and demand-side (heat waves raising cooling loads) — will grow more frequent. Integrated Energy Planning must therefore treat climate variability as a systemic grid risk, not a one-off event. The National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), 2008 laid the framework for India's climate adaptation across eight national missions, including the National Solar Mission and the National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE). Grid resilience via diversified storage, demand-response programmes, and smart-grid infrastructure is increasingly recognised as a core element of energy security.
Key Details
- NAPCC was launched in 2008; its eight missions cover solar energy, enhanced energy efficiency, sustainable habitat, water, Himalayan ecosystems, Green India, sustainable agriculture, and strategic knowledge for climate change.
- The National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE) operates through mechanisms such as PAT (Perform Achieve Trade), MTEE (Market Transformation for Energy Efficiency), EEFP (Energy Efficiency Financing Platform), and SDA (Standards and Labelling).
- India's Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) operates under the Energy Conservation Act, 2001.
The CREA study's projection of a 17 million tonne CO₂ spike during El Niño illustrates a feedback loop: climate change amplifies ENSO events, ENSO disrupts renewables, and the grid falls back on coal — undermining climate commitments. This highlights why storage and demand-side management are climate-adaptation priorities, not just energy-efficiency measures.
- Projected total generation gap (July 2026–June 2027): ~18 TWh
- Wind generation reduction (El Niño impact): ~4.9 TWh
- Hydropower generation reduction (El Niño impact): ~2.9 TWh
- Additional cooling/air-conditioning demand: ~10 TWh
- Projected additional fossil fuel generation: 17.7 TWh (worst case: ~24 TWh)
- Additional CO₂ emissions from extra coal: ~17 million tonnes
- India's non-fossil installed capacity target by 2030: 500 GW (NDC, COP26)
- India's total installed capacity (March 2026): ~532.7 GW
- India's installed coal capacity (December 2025): ~219.61 GW
- Renewable share of installed capacity (October 2024): ~46.3% (>200 GW)
- NAPCC launched: 2008; includes National Solar Mission (launched January 11, 2010)
- Energy Conservation Act: 2001 (established Bureau of Energy Efficiency)