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Environment & Ecology July 03, 2026 6 min read Daily brief · #14 of 32

WMO warns rapid development of El Nino during July-Sept; government reviews the situation of rainfall deficit

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of rapid development of a strong El Nino event during July–September 2026, with below-normal monsoon r...

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What Happened

  • The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of rapid development of a strong El Nino event during July–September 2026, with below-normal monsoon rains expected across much of India.
  • India recorded a nationwide rainfall deficit of approximately 40% in June 2026 — the third-driest June in 100 years — with central India worst affected at a deficit of over 50%.
  • Kharif crop sowing has fallen 23% below last year's levels, with total acreage at 182.72 lakh hectares against 236.46 lakh hectares a year earlier; paddy is down 25%, pulses 30%, and oilseeds 53%.
  • The Union government has urged farmers to delay sowing and shift to less water-intensive crops such as millets; central teams are being deployed to flood-affected Northeast states to assess damage.
  • Key reservoir levels are at 26% storage capacity, raising concerns about water availability for both irrigation and drinking purposes over the coming months.

Static Topic Bridges

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

ENSO refers to a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon involving periodic fluctuations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric pressure across the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino (the warm phase) occurs when SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are anomalously warm, while La Nina (the cool phase) involves anomalous cooling of the same region. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) — measuring the atmospheric component — was first described by Sir Gilbert Walker in the 1920s. ENSO is the dominant source of inter-annual climate variability globally and affects rainfall, temperature, and extreme weather events on every inhabited continent.

  • During El Nino, the Walker Circulation (the east-west tropical Pacific circulation cell) weakens and shifts eastward, suppressing convection over the Indo-Pacific and weakening the Indian monsoon.
  • El Nino years historically correspond with below-normal Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR); La Nina years tend to produce above-normal rainfall (e.g., 2010–11, 2020–22).
  • The Nino 3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 170°W–120°W) SST anomaly is the key index used by WMO and IMD to classify ENSO phases.
  • The El Nino-monsoon teleconnection: warming of the Pacific shifts the ascending limb of the Hadley Cell eastward, reducing moisture supply and weakening the low-level southwesterly jet stream that drives India's southwest monsoon.

Connection to this news: The WMO's forecast of rapid El Nino intensification during July–September directly explains the ongoing 40% monsoon deficit in June 2026, with central India most affected — a textbook expression of El Nino's suppression of the Walker Circulation and Indian monsoon convection.

Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM)

The Indian Summer Monsoon (June–September) is a thermally-driven circulation driven by the differential heating of the Indian subcontinent and the Indian Ocean. The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts northward in boreal summer, drawing in moisture-laden southwest winds from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The monsoon accounts for approximately 75–80% of India's annual rainfall and is critical for 60% of net sown area that depends on rain-fed agriculture. The Long Period Average (LPA) — computed over a 50-year base period by IMD — is the benchmark against which seasonal rainfall is measured; a departure below -19% of LPA is classified as a drought year.

  • The IMD's April 2026 long-range forecast projected monsoon at 92% of LPA — the first below-normal April forecast in 11 years.
  • Onset of the southwest monsoon is normally June 1 over Kerala; delays cascade into deficits across other regions.
  • Central India and peninsular India are most vulnerable to El Nino-driven monsoon failure owing to their dependence on the Bay of Bengal branch.
  • The northeast monsoon (October–December) affects southeastern India and is a distinct system less impacted by ENSO in the same way.

Connection to this news: The 40% nationwide deficit in June and the third-driest June in 100 years directly reflects a weakened southwest monsoon onset — a pattern consistent with El Nino teleconnections suppressing convection over India.

Kharif Agriculture and Food Security

Kharif crops are sown at the onset of the southwest monsoon (June–July) and harvested after the monsoon recedes (October–November). They include rice (paddy), maize, cotton, groundnut, soybean, pulses, and millets — all rain-fed crops dependent on adequate monsoon performance. India's food security architecture rests on the Food Corporation of India (FCI), the National Food Security Act (NFSA) 2013, and buffer stock norms set by the government. The minimum support price (MSP) mechanism under the Agriculture Prices Commission (now Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices — CACP) governs farmer income floors.

  • Kharif season contributes approximately 50% of India's total annual food grain production.
  • Rice, the dominant kharif crop, is sown on over 40 million hectares in a normal year; a 25% sowing decline translates to significant output risk.
  • Millets (bajra, jowar, ragi) are classified as Nutri-Cereals and require far less water than paddy — their promotion as drought-resilient alternatives aligns with government advisories during monsoon deficits.
  • The National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA) under the Ministry of Agriculture provides contingency planning frameworks for drought-prone districts.
  • India's buffer stock norms require the FCI to maintain minimum foodgrain stocks throughout the year; below-normal kharif output can trigger import decisions and affect wholesale price indices.

Connection to this news: The 23% kharif sowing shortfall — driven by the monsoon deficit — threatens food grain output across rice, pulses, and oilseeds. The government's advisory to shift to less water-intensive crops like millets reflects both the contingency planning framework and the broader push for Nutri-Cereals under India's food security strategy.

WMO and India's Climate Institutional Framework

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations established in 1950, responsible for international cooperation in meteorology, hydrology, and operational hydrology. India is a member and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) — established in 1875 under the Ministry of Earth Sciences — is the national nodal body for weather forecasting, including monsoon forecasts. The IMD issues four seasonal monsoon forecasts (April, June, July, August) using statistical and dynamical models.

  • IMD classifies monsoon seasons: Normal (96–104% of LPA), Below Normal (90–95%), Deficient (75–89%), and Large Deficient (below 75%).
  • The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) coordinates drought and flood response at the national level.
  • Central teams deployed to states for damage assessment work under the National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF) / State Disaster Response Fund (SDRF) framework.

Connection to this news: The WMO warning, corroborated by IMD's below-normal forecast, triggered the government's inter-ministerial review of the rainfall deficit situation — a standard activation of India's climate-agriculture contingency response architecture.

Key Facts & Data

  • India's June 2026 rainfall deficit: approximately 40% below normal (third-driest June in 100 years)
  • Central India deficit: over 50%; East and Northeast India: 41%; South Peninsula: 28%; Northwest India: 22%
  • Kharif sowing acreage (as of June 24, 2026): 182.72 lakh hectares — down 23% from 236.46 lakh hectares a year earlier
  • Crop-specific sowing declines: paddy −25%, pulses −30%, oilseeds −53%
  • Key reservoir storage: 26% of capacity
  • WMO forecasts rapid El Nino development during July–September 2026
  • IMD April 2026 forecast: 92% of LPA — first below-normal April forecast in 11 years
  • MRSAM range: up to 70 km (Extended Range variant: up to 150 km)
  • El Nino classification index: Nino 3.4 region SST anomaly (5°N–5°S, 170°W–120°W)
  • Walker Circulation concept: first described by Sir Gilbert Walker (1925)
  • WMO established: 1950 (UN specialized agency); IMD established: 1875
  • NFSA (National Food Security Act): enacted 2013
On this page
  1. What Happened
  2. Static Topic Bridges
  3. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
  4. Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM)
  5. Kharif Agriculture and Food Security
  6. WMO and India's Climate Institutional Framework
  7. Key Facts & Data
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